Sky Sports journalist Lewis Jones believes there will be many goals scored in the match between Man City and Tottenham in round 14 of the Premier League.
Man City - Tottenham : 11:30 p.m. Sunday, December 3, Hanoi time.
Tottenham are in danger of losing their fourth Premier League game in a row, their first in 19 years. In a normal situation, their fans would probably be calling for the sacking of the manager and calling for the return of Jose Mourinho or Antonio Conte. But I don’t think that will happen, because Ange Postecoglou is bringing more joy to Tottenham fans than expected.
Tottenham may have been thrashed at the Etihad, but result aside, I still think the visitors can score and contribute to a high-scoring game. I’m therefore backing them at 4-11 on scoring at least twice. As Chelsea showed in their 4-4 draw with Man City, if their opponents can get the game into an open play, Man City could be vulnerable in midfield with Rodri stretched.
Kulusevski scores during Tottenham's loss to Man City at the Etihad Stadium in the Premier League on January 19, 2023. Photo: Reuters
Tottenham love to play an attacking game and are leading the Premier League in shots from open play and quick transitions, with 164. The 13-2 odds for Dejan Kulusevski to score are notable given the Swede has scored in both of Tottenham's last two visits to the Etihad. Kulusevski also missed a good chance against Chelsea recently and hit the post in the 2-1 defeat to Aston Villa.
I noticed Kulusevski’s position in the four-man attack that Postecoglou used against Villa. The Australian is looking to address a lack of creativity in attack following the injury to James Maddison. Kulusevski is still on the right wing, but he tends to come inside and play as a second striker. If this trend continues, I think a player as intelligent as him can be a threat to any defence. As for the scoreline, I predict a 4-2 win for Man City.
Arsenal - Wolves : 10pm Saturday, December 2
As Gary Neville said, we are entering a period where only the best teams will survive in the title race. Arsenal are that team. Mikel Arteta has developed a team tough enough to get through the winter with a solid defence.
The Gunners could extend their unbeaten run. Before this game, they had not lost in their last 10 home games, winning eight and scoring 16 goals in their last four.
The absence of midfielders Joao Gomes and Mario Lemina through suspension, along with the continued absence of key striker Pedro Neto, could leave Wolves helpless against Arsenal’s defence. I’ve also noticed that the visitors are more likely to receive yellow cards in this match.
Wolves have committed the most fouls and received the second most yellow cards this season, while Arsenal's opponents have received more cards than them in their last seven games. Despite being physically tough and hard to beat, the Gunners have received the fewest yellow cards with 17. They are a slow-burning giant and I'm betting Arsenal will win 2-0 here.
Newcastle - Man Utd : 3am Sunday, December 3
Man Utd are in fine form in the Premier League, winning five of their last six games. But there is evidence that their revival is based on fragile foundations and the Red Devils will collapse if they continue to play like this.
Newcastle beat Man Utd 3-0 in the League Cup on November 1. Photo: Reuters
As my colleague Adam Smith has pointed out, the numbers show that United are actually a mid-table team in the Premier League. They have lost out on expected goals in their wins over Everton, Fulham and Sheffield United by 3.98 to 4.81. I was surprised to see that the bookmakers gave United a 27% chance of winning against Newcastle and were offering them 14-5 odds to take all three points at St James' Park.
Newcastle have thrashed Chelsea and beaten Arsenal at home. They have lost just three of their last 27 games at St James' Park. The Magpies have conceded just three goals at home this season.
Furthermore, Man Utd have not won away to a top-nine team under Erik ten Hag in their last 10 games. They have lost by a 9-34 aggregate score. Based on my data, Newcastle should be 7-4 to win this game, and I predict a 3-1 home win.
Bournemouth - Aston Villa : 9pm Sunday, December 3
Bournemouth are in fine form under Andoni Iraola and there are plenty of positives to back them in this tie. For me, 4/5 on Bournemouth to score two or more goals and 6/5 on them not losing to Villa are both worth considering.
Iraola has found the key to his unique pressing system in Ryan Christie. The midfielder is being used perfectly in the middle of the park and providing the foundation for Bournemouth’s play. Christie made four tackles in two impressive wins over Newcastle and Sheffield United. While I’m not a big fan of betting on tackles, I’d make an exception for him.
The bookies are offering Christie 7-1 odds to repeat that feat - making four successful tackles this game. If you want to be a little more conservative, you can go for 6-5 for two or more tackles or 2-5 for three or more. Christie could be the star of a Bournemouth side that are on the rise and I think the hosts will surprise with a 2-1 win.
Chelsea - Brighton : 9pm Sunday, December 3
Brighton have made $254 million from selling players to Chelsea, including Marc Cucurella, Robert Sanchez and Moises Caicedo, and even let manager Graham Potter move to Stamford Bridge. But the Seagulls have not been weakened by that. Under Roberto De Zerbi, Brighton have started the season with a strong attack and have just qualified for the Europa League group stage.
However, injuries to key players and having to split their strength for European competition mean Brighton are no longer a dangerous opponent in the Premier League. Lewis Dunk's suspension is also a big problem for them. Brighton have not won their last five games without the centre-back, including a 1-1 draw with Sheffield United on November 12.
Chelsea beat Brighton 1-0 in the League Cup on September 27. Photo: Reuters
Brighton’s statistics from their last five games show a lack of play, a far cry from the vibrancy De Zerbi has brought. For example, Brighton’s non-penalty expected goals have dropped to 5.67, compared to 6.7 for their opponents. They have had 46 shots while they have conceded 76.
This was evident in their 1-0 win over AEK Athens in the Europa League in midweek. Given the chances the Greek side created, Brighton were lucky to come away with three points. All of this bodes well for a Chelsea win. I’m backing the hosts to win and score three or more goals.
When Brighton lose, they tend to lose by a big margin, like against Everton or Aston Villa. That has been their habit under De Zerbi and in their last seven Premier League defeats, the aggregate scoreline is 25-7 in favour of their opponents. So I predict a 4-1 Chelsea win here.
Liverpool - Fulham : 9pm Sunday, December 3
Trent Alexander-Arnold has been one of the best attacking full-backs in the Premier League and after a difficult start to the season, I think his goal against Man City will give him a boost of confidence.
Hosting Fulham at Anfield will be a chance for Alexander-Arnold to show his attacking ability. Since Jurgen Klopp adjusted his tactics to play Alexander-Arnold more centrally, the Englishman has scored just two goals in 22 games. This is a disappointing statistic for a player of his quality and playing for an attack-minded team like Liverpool.
But as I said, a goal at the Etihad could awaken Alexander-Arnold's hunger for goals. He has had 10 shots in his last five games, so the 25-year-old is worth considering at 6-4 to get at least two shots on target. Alternatively, you could also consider 13-2 to score in what is likely to be a dominant Liverpool game. As for the scoreline, I think Klopp's men will have no trouble winning 3-0.
West Ham - Crystal Palace : 9pm Sunday, December 3
West Ham have won five of their last six games, reached the Europa League knockout stages and the quarter-finals of the League Cup. They are just eight points off the top four. With those stats, I see no reason to be pessimistic about the prospect of them beating Crystal Palace, who are not playing well and are missing key striker Eberechi Eze.
Palace have tended to play it safe in the first half. They have failed to score in the opening 45 minutes in 10 of their 13 games this season. That has meant eight of their 13 games have ended 0-0 at half-time. Bookmakers are offering 8-15 odds on a repeat of that in this game.
West Ham will be looking for a fifth straight win, while Roy Hodgson must find a way to prevent Palace from suffering a third defeat. The visitors have lost their last two games to Luton and Everton, who are both bottom of the table. However, despite Palace having won just two of their last 16 London derbies, they have lost both to West Ham, including a 2-1 win at the London Stadium last November. So I predict a 1-1 draw.
Vinh San (according to Sky Sports )
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