Economic news review March 12

The central exchange rate decreased by 17 VND, the VN-Index increased by 9.51 points, and UOB Bank just forecasted Vietnam's GDP growth in the first quarter of 2024 at 5.5%... are some notable economic news on March 12.

Review of economic information week 4-8/3 Review of economic information on March 11

Economic news review

Domestic news

In the foreign exchange market on March 12, the State Bank listed the central exchange rate at 23,955 VND/USD, a sharp decrease of 17 VND compared to the first session of the week.

The USD buying price was kept unchanged at 23,400 VND/USD by the State Bank of Vietnam, while the USD selling price was listed at 25,102 VND/USD, 50 VND lower than the ceiling exchange rate.

On the interbank market, the dollar-dong exchange rate closed at 24,648 VND/USD, down 2 VND compared to the session on March 11.

The dollar-dong exchange rate on the free market decreased by 20 VND for buying and 100 VND for selling, trading at 25,480 VND/USD and 25,600 VND/USD.

On March 12, the average interbank VND interest rate increased sharply by 0.12 - 0.70 percentage points in all terms of 1 month or less compared to the first session of the week, specifically: overnight 1.50%; 1 week 1.68%; 2 weeks 1.80% and 1 month 2.18%.

The average interbank USD offering rate increased by 0.01 - 0.02 percentage points for overnight and 2-week terms while remaining unchanged for 1-week and 1-month terms, trading at: overnight 5.21%; 1-week 5.29%; 2-week 5.38%, 1-month 5.40%.

Government bond yields in the secondary market increased across all maturities, closing at: 3-year 1.38%; 5-year 1.60%; 7-year 1.99%; 10-year 2.50%; 15-year 2.70%.

Yesterday's open market operations, on the mortgage channel, the State Bank of Vietnam bid 3,000 billion VND with a term of 7 days, the interest rate remained at 4.0%. There was no winning volume, no circulating volume on this channel. The State Bank of Vietnam bid for SBV bills with a term of 28 days, bidding for interest rates. There were 14,999.7 billion VND of winning bills with an interest rate of 1.4%.

Thus, the State Bank of Vietnam net withdrew VND 14,999.7 billion from the market in yesterday's session, the volume of State Bank of Vietnam bills circulating in the market increased to VND 29,999.5 billion.

The stock market had a sluggish trading session, with major indices hovering around the reference level with low trading volume. At the end of the session, VN-Index increased by 9.51 points (+0.77%) to 1,245.0 points; HNX-Index added 0.19 points (+0.08%) to 234.03 points; UPCoM-Index inched up 0.11 points (+0.12%) to 90.77 points. Market liquidity continued to decrease compared to the previous session with a trading value of over VND22,800 billion. Foreign investors net sold nearly VND437 billion on all three exchanges.

Singapore-based UOB Bank has forecast Vietnam's GDP growth in the first quarter of 2024 at 5.5%, higher than the 3.3% increase in the same period in 2023, while maintaining Vietnam's growth forecast for 2024 at 6.0%, within the official target of 6.0-6.5%. The bank predicts that inflationary pressures will continue to increase, with the headline CPI forecast to increase to 3.8% in 2024, from 3.25% in 2023. UOB believes that the VND is likely to recover slightly, forecasting USD/VND to be at 24,400 VND/USD in the second quarter of this year, then falling to 24,200 VND/USD in the third quarter and to 24,000 VND/USD in the fourth quarter of 2024.

International News

The US got some inflation-related readings in February. The US Census Bureau said the headline consumer price index (CPI) and core CPI both rose 0.4% month-on-month in February, after rising 0.3% and 0.4% respectively in the previous month, roughly in line with the experts' forecasts of 0.4% and 0.3% increases.

Thus, compared to the same period in 2023, the country's headline CPI increased by about 3.2% last month, contrary to the forecast of a flat rate compared to the previous month at 3.1%. Detailed figures show that energy prices are no longer a problem for inflation, as the index showed a decrease of 1.9% compared to the same period.

However, some believe that the CPI in February remained high, forcing the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to continue waiting for a more appropriate time to cut policy interest rates. According to CME forecasts, there is a 99% chance that the Fed will not raise policy interest rates at the March 20 meeting, while the dominant scenario still shows that the first cut will take place at the June 12 meeting.

The UK labour market recorded some important indicators. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that the number of unemployment benefit claims in the country increased by 16.8 thousand in February after increasing by 3.1 thousand in the previous month, lower than the forecast of 20.3 thousand. The unemployment rate in the country also increased to 3.9%, contrary to the forecast of continuing to stay flat at 3.8% as in January. Finally, average earnings in the UK increased by 5.6% compared to the previous 3 months in 12-1-2, slowing slightly from the 5.8% increase in 11-12-1 and also lower than the forecast of 5.7%.

Source link