According to the results of the survey on business trends of credit institutions in the first quarter of 2024 just announced by the State Bank, outstanding credit of the banking system is forecast to increase by 4.4% in the first quarter of 2024 and increase by 14.2% in 2024, an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to the forecast of 13.8% in the previous survey.
According to the survey results, the deposit and lending interest rate level is forecast to continue to decrease slightly, with an average expected decrease of 0.3-0.4 percentage points in the first quarter of 2024 and a decrease of 0.2 percentage points in the whole year of 2024.
Credit institutions also forecast that customers' demand for banking services will improve less than in the fourth quarter of 2024, but is expected to improve more strongly in 2024. Notably, demand for loans is forecast to improve more than demand for deposits and payments, different from the situation in 2023.
The survey results also show that the liquidity of the banking system in the fourth quarter of 2023 continues to maintain a good state and improves more positively than expected. Credit institutions assess that the liquidity situation in 2023 is more abundant than in 2022 and forecast that it will continue to be abundant in the first quarter of 2024 and the whole year of 2024.
Capital mobilization of the entire credit institution system is expected to increase by an average of 2.6% in the first quarter of 2024 and by 12.1% in 2024, equivalent to the expected level in the previous survey.
Contrary to expectations of a decrease, the survey results this time show that credit institutions believe that the ratio of bad debt/credit balance in the fourth quarter of 2023 will continue to "increase slightly" but is expected to "decrease slightly" in the first quarter of 2024.
According to the State Bank's survey results, the business situation and pre-tax profits of the banking system in the fourth quarter of 2023 improved slightly compared to the previous quarter but were much lower than the expected level recorded in the previous survey.
Overall assessment of 2023, credit institutions assessed that the business situation had not met expectations and sharply adjusted down expectations on pre-tax profit growth rate compared to the forecast in the previous survey.
Of which, 78.6% of credit institutions estimated pre-tax profits in 2023 to grow positively compared to the previous year; 17.9% of credit institutions estimated negative profit growth and 3.6% estimated unchanged.
With the business situation and pre-tax profit in 2023 growing at a low rate and not reaching expectations, credit institutions expect the business situation to be more positive from the first quarter of 2024 and the whole year of 2024, but pre-tax profit may recover more slowly than the business situation.
According to Vietnam+Source
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