North-South high-speed railway before historic moment

Submitting the Pre-Feasibility Study Report of the North-South High-Speed ​​Railway to the Politburo to present to the National Assembly at its 8th session taking place next October will be a "historic moment" that will decide whether Vietnam can officially enter the decade of high-speed railways or not.

The debate has come to an end.

The 13th Party Central Committee has just agreed on the investment policy for the entire North-South high-speed railway line and the Ministry of Transport is currently completing the pre-feasibility study report, preparing procedures and documents to submit to the National Assembly for consideration and comments at the October 2024 session. Specifically, the high-speed railway line has its starting point in Hanoi at Ngoc Hoi station complex, and its ending point in Ho Chi Minh City at Thu Thiem station. The project passes through 20 provinces and cities. The pre-feasibility study report proposes to build a new double-track railway line, 1,435 mm gauge, electrified, with a design speed of 350 km/h, a load capacity of 22.5 tons/axle; a length of about 1,541 km with 23 passenger stations and 5 freight stations. The high-speed railway transports passengers, meets dual-use requirements for national defense and security, and can transport goods when necessary; The existing North-South railway transports goods and short-distance tourists. The total investment is about 70 billion USD. Since being restarted after a "head shake" in May 2010, the largest project in Vietnam has gone through more than a decade of "raising up and putting down" due to endless debates about construction technology corresponding to the speed. In fact, the first research report on high-speed railway prepared by the Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA) in the period 2005 - 2008 proposed that the North-South expressway reach a design speed of 350 km/h (actual operating speed of 300 km/h), with a total investment of nearly 56 billion USD. However, the project later did not receive the majority of approval from National Assembly deputies due to concerns that the total investment was too large, leading to a burden of public debt, in the context that the country still had many projects that needed more priority.

The General Statistics Office estimates that the North-South high-speed railway could contribute about 1 percentage point to GDP growth each year in the 2025-2037 period.

PHOTO: NGOC THANG

During the period 2011 - 2019, although the project continued to be studied under the leadership of JICA or the Tedi - Tricc - Tedi South Consulting Consortium, the Ministry of Transport still maintained the view that the high-speed railway would run at 350 km/h and only carry passengers. However, when the pre-feasibility study results of the Consulting Consortium were submitted to the Government by the Ministry of Transport in early 2019, the Ministry of Planning and Investment made many comments, arguing that investing in the North - South high-speed railway with a speed of 200 - 250 km/h (running a combination of passenger and freight trains) would not only save more than 30 billion USD in investment costs, but also be suitable for the country's conditions and achieve more operational efficiency than the option of trains running at 300 - 350 km/h and only carrying passengers. Since then, every time the Ministry of Transport reported to the Government on the project's progress, there were heated debates among professional agencies, scientists and even the people about the train's speed, whether it would only carry passengers or freight. After that, the Ministry of Transport developed a third scenario: a railway line with a design speed of 350 km/h, operating passenger trains but with the possibility of reserving for freight when needed. The situation continued to be complicated until the Politburo issued Conclusion No. 49-KL/TW on the orientation for the development of Vietnam's railway transport to 2030, with a vision to 2045, stating that by 2025, it is necessary to strive to approve the investment policy for the North-South high-speed railway; start construction of priority sections in the 2026-2030 period and by 2035, the entire project must be completed. Time pressure does not allow the Government to hesitate to study further. Therefore, the Ministry of Transport has accelerated with ministries, departments and branches to actively study experiences, refer to models from 22 countries and territories, organize learning experiences in 6 countries that own and master high-speed railway technology to "finalize" scenario 3. According to the consulting unit, the train speed of 350 km/h is suitable for routes of 800 km or more, focusing on many urban areas with high population density such as the North - South corridor of our country. In addition, on the Hanoi - Ho Chi Minh City route, the speed of 350 km/h has the ability to attract about 12.5% ​​more passengers than the speed of 250 km/h; the investment cost of the speed of 350 km/h is about 8 - 9% higher than the speed of 250 km/h. However, if investing at a speed of 250 km/h, upgrading to a speed of 350 km/h is difficult to implement and ineffective.

Is the 10 year goal feasible?

Dr. Nguyen Anh Tuan, a railway expert, affirmed that strategically, the construction of a 350 km/h North-South high-speed railway with a vision of 50-100 years from now is completely reasonable. The current practical context also allows this option to be feasible. According to Dr. Nguyen Anh Tuan, in the past, investment in railways depended entirely on the budget. Railways have a very large total investment, technical requirements that require the complete construction of each section of the route, and cannot be divided into investment phases with transitions like roads, so it is almost impossible to attract private capital and socialized capital.

Consulting on the preparation of a preliminary feasibility study report to determine the total project investment at approximately 67.34 billion USD

SOURCE: DVTV

However, the railway industry is currently attracting more and more attention from potential investors both domestically and internationally, helping to reduce the burden on the budget, solving the problem of capital, technology and human resources. On the other hand, the aviation market has also changed in a different direction, airfares are increasing. Therefore, if the railway runs trains at high speeds of 300 - 350 km/h, with a reasonable fare plan, it can completely compete with aviation. At the same time, upgrading the existing railway line to serve freight transport. By 2030, the completion of the North - South expressway network will also solve this problem. Regarding the implementation progress, the Ministry of Transport plans to bid for international consultants, conduct surveys, and prepare pre-feasibility studies in 2025-2026 after being approved by competent authorities. Site clearance, bidding for contractor selection, and construction of component projects for the Hanoi - Vinh and Nha Trang - Ho Chi Minh City sections will be carried out at the end of 2027; construction of component projects for the Vinh - Nha Trang section will be carried out in 2028-2029 and the entire route will be completed by 2035. Notably, there are currently a number of powerful countries, which are also railway "tycoons" such as China, Japan, South Korea, etc., expressing their desire to cooperate and support Vietnam in this high-speed railway project. From the US, economist and urban management expert Huynh The Du emphasized to Thanh Nien that in order to complete the high-speed railway connecting the North to the South in 10 years at a cost of 70 billion USD, the most feasible option is to cooperate and utilize Chinese technology. Although China only started developing high-speed railways at the beginning of the 21st century, behind Japan and South Korea, it has quickly made a breakthrough. By 2024, China will own more than 45,000 km of high-speed railways, using trains like the Fuxing, reaching speeds of up to 350 km/h. If in the 2000s, China had to depend on foreign companies like Alstom or Siemens to build high-speed railways, in a short time, the country's engineers have been able to develop advanced domestic solutions, suitable for the country's geographical conditions and large scale. Notably, the cost of building China's high-speed railway is quite cheap, only about half of the construction cost of Japan. The terrain of this country also has mountains and forests like Vietnam.

China's transport infrastructure technology is extremely efficient, fast, and low cost. The biggest problem is Vietnam's management and supervision capacity. If we have the ability to research, learn thoroughly, supervise well, and ensure against loss, the goal of completing the North-South high-speed railway in 10 years is completely feasible. Dr. Huynh The Du

Thanhnien.vn

Source: https://thanhnien.vn/duong-sat-cao-toc-bac-nam-truoc-thoi-khac-lich-su-185240929212551385.htm