Robusta coffee prices fell 2.32% to $5,010 per ton.

Arabica coffee futures for July delivery on the ICE US exchange fell 3.07% to $8,042 per ton; Robusta coffee futures for the same period on the ICE EU exchange fell 2.32% to $5,010 per ton.

The Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) reported that selling pressure returned to dominate the global raw materials market during yesterday's trading session (May 14). At closing, the MXV-Index fell nearly 0.5% to 2,219 points, ending a four-session winning streak.

MXV-Index

Coffee prices have fallen across the board.

According to MXV, red dominated the industrial raw materials market yesterday. Specifically, the price of Arabica coffee futures for July delivery on the ICE US exchange fell 3.07% to $8,042 per ton; the price of Robusta coffee for the same period on the ICE EU exchange decreased 2.32% to $5,010 per ton.

Industrial raw material price list

This decline mainly stems from a series of forecasts of increased global supply, with Conab raising its forecast for Brazilian coffee production in the 2025-2026 season to 55.7 million bags, a 2.7% increase compared to the previous year – a record high for a year in a low-production cycle. At the same time, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) also forecasts a 2.6% increase in coffee exports from Honduras and Uganda; El Salvador recorded a slight increase, causing the market to reconsider its supply outlook for the coming period.

Robusta coffee prices for the same delivery period on the ICE EU exchange fell 2.32% to $5,010 per ton.

Furthermore, coffee inventories continue to rise sharply, directly putting pressure on prices. According to ICE, Robusta inventories reached 4,626 lots – the highest level in 7.5 months, while Arabica inventories reached 844,473 bags (60kg), the highest in nearly 3 months. Of this, 91.4% of Arabica is stored in Europe, mostly Brazilian coffee, and the amount of coffee awaiting sorting also continues to increase, reflecting abundant supply in the market.

Regarding the weather, the World Weather Service reports that Brazil's coffee-growing regions are experiencing warm weather and limited rainfall, a trend expected to continue into the next week. While not completely dry, the scattered showers are considered too short and light to compensate for evaporation, while conditions in Colombia and Venezuela remain favorable thanks to regular rainfall. Brazil's arabica harvest has just begun, and although it's a low season in the biennial cycle, the outlook is more positive than at the beginning of the year.

Another notable development in the industrial raw materials market is that the July cotton futures contract failed to maintain its upward momentum after a rebound earlier in the week on Monday, following news of a 90-day pause in retaliatory tariffs between the US and China. Accordingly, the July cotton contract on the ICE US exchange continued to fall by another 1.21%, to $1,443 per ton.

The latest USDA Supply and Demand report, released on Monday, shows that the U.S. cotton inventory-to-use ratio for the 2025-2026 crop year is projected at 36.6%, a slight decrease from the previous year's 37.5% but still significantly higher than the five-year average of 28.0%, reflecting continued abundant cotton supply. Brazil's cotton production is forecast at 18.25 million bales, up from 17 million bales in the 2024-2025 crop year.

In the U.S., cotton planting progress is slower than average, particularly in the Delta region, due to prolonged heavy rains. According to the World Weather Service, Texas is expected to be dry for much of the next two weeks, allowing for faster planting once the soil dries out. In West Texas, recent rains have improved planting conditions, but dry farmlands in the southwest still require additional irrigation.

In the Delta region, soil conditions remain wet, and planting may continue to be disrupted by further rains over the next 10 days. In Xinjiang (China), the region would benefit from additional rain to support crop growth. Meanwhile, in northern India and Pakistan, early cotton planting is progressing favorably thanks to recent rains that have lowered temperatures and improved field conditions.

Money is flowing out of the precious metals sector.

Yesterday's trading session saw a clear divergence in the metals market. Improved market sentiment, fueled by positive US economic prospects, reduced safe-haven demand, causing both precious metals to close in the red. Conversely, base metals came under pressure as concerns about supply began to emerge, impacting price movements during the session.

At the close of trading, silver prices reversed course, falling 1.98% to $32.44 per ounce, while platinum lost 1.11% to $981.2 per ounce.

Metal price list

Following the temporary tariff suspension agreement between the US and China, a number of major investment banks have revised down their forecasts for a US economic recession. Goldman Sachs lowered the probability of a US recession from 45% to 35% and raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 1%. JP Morgan assessed the recession risk as having fallen below 50% and simultaneously raised its growth forecast for China to 4.8%. Barclays even completely removed the risk of recession from its forecast scenario. This cooled investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets and shifted capital to other assets, thereby weakening the price of silver.

In the base metals group, COMEX copper prices fell sharply by 1.54% to $10,252 per ton amid continued market caution. Additionally, positive signs regarding supply further reinforced the decline in copper prices. The Cobre Panama mine is likely to restart operations after more than 18 months of shutdown for maintenance. Recently, the President of Panama stated that the government is considering collaborative options to bring this large-scale mine back into production. Cobre Panama is the largest open-pit copper mine in Central America and produced over 330,000 tons of copper in 2023.

Conversely, iron ore prices rebounded sharply by 2.33% to $101.83 per ton due to concerns about tightening supply. According to Mysteel, total iron ore exports from Australia and Brazil in the week ending May 11th decreased by 4.6% compared to the previous week, marking the second consecutive week of decline. The main reason was a significant drop in Brazilian exports. Specifically, the amount of ore shipped to the market decreased by 1.5 million tons to 6.3 million tons. This development raised concerns about potential supply disruptions from key exporting countries, thereby triggering a wave of buying in the market and pushing iron ore prices back up.

Prices of some other goods

Energy price list

Agricultural product price list

Ngoc Ngan

Source: https://congthuong.vn/gia-ca-phe-robusta-giam-232-ve-5010-usdtan-387641.html