World coffee prices continue to rise, robusta coffee prices hit a record high, while arabica prices hit their highest in over a month.
The DXY index has risen sharply again, prompting funds and speculators to continue to liquidate net positions on both exchanges despite uncertain weather information in Brazil. There is concern across Brazil's coffee growing regions that the 2024 coffee crop will not meet expectations, due to the impact of this year's El Nino weather phenomenon, making farmers reluctant to sell at this time.
Domestic coffee prices continued to increase by nearly 1,000 VND/kg, officially reaching a record of 79,000 VND/kg, while the market fluctuated between 78,000 - 79,000 VND/kg.
The London robusta market recovered near the end of the session despite having increased quite a bit earlier after the General Statistics Office of Vietnam reported that exports in January were estimated at about 210,000 tons, up 47.6% year-on-year, due to concerns over robusta supplies from Asian countries.
In addition, major robusta producers in Southeast Asia are facing problems with delayed deliveries to the European market due to transportation congestion. This continues to push robusta to record highs.
The low ICE inventory report also continued to support the bullish price trend.
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| Domestic coffee prices today, January 31, increased by 800 - 900 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: YouTube) |
At the end of the trading session on January 30, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London continued to increase, the delivery term for March 2024 increased by 61 USD, trading at 3,336 USD/ton. The delivery term for May 2024 increased by 59 USD, trading at 3,181 USD/ton. Average trading volume.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange increased, with the March 2024 delivery period falling 4.75 cents, trading at 194.00 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the May 2024 delivery period fell 4.20 cents, trading at 190.25 cents/lb. Trading volume was high on average.
Domestic coffee prices today, January 31, increased by 800 - 900 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities.
Unit: VND/kg. (Source: Giacaphe.com) |
The market is expecting the Fed Chairman to deliver a dovish speech as soon as he decides to cut USD interest rates this time.
According to preliminary data from the General Statistics Office, Vietnam's average coffee export price in January 2024 reached 2,955 USD/ton, up 2.3% over the previous month and up 35.2% over the same period in 2023.
Experts predict that coffee prices will likely continue to rise as inventories in the EU have fallen sharply due to the Red Sea incident. However, on the London exchange, the market is preparing for a correction this week as futures contracts have been overbought in recent weeks.
For the domestic market, rising prices are causing many obstacles for exports as businesses do not dare and do not have enough finance to buy export goods.
According to data from the International Coffee Organization (ICO), after a decline in the previous crop year, global coffee trade is showing an upward trend again.
ICO data shows that global coffee exports reached 10.6 million bags in November 2023, up 4.1% compared to the same period in 2022. Bringing total exports in the first two months of the 2023-24 crop year (October and November 2023) to 20.2 million bags, up 3.1% compared to the previous crop year.
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