Vietnam's cashew industry is approaching the target of 4.5 billion USD, expected to reach the 5 billion USD mark

(Dan Tri) - After 9 months, the cashew industry achieved 3.77 billion USD in exports, approaching the target of 4.5 billion USD. Vinacas forecasts that the turnover could exceed 4.5 billion, even touch 5 billion USD if the growth momentum is maintained.

According to the General Department of Customs, in September, Vietnam's cashew nut exports reached 72,440 tons, worth 491.29 million USD, up 4.2% in volume and 3.9% in value compared to the previous month; up 26.5% and 31.5% respectively compared to the same period in 2024.

Exports continued to improve in the fourth quarter

In the first nine months of the year, Vietnam exported 554,760 tons of cashew nuts, worth 3.77 billion USD, up 1.6% in volume and 19.5% in value compared to the same period in 2024. With this result, the cashew industry only needs about 730 million USD more in the fourth quarter to complete the target of 4.5 billion USD set by the Vietnam Cashew Association (Vinacas). However, if the current growth momentum continues, export turnover can completely reach 5 billion USD this year.

According to Vinacas, the fourth quarter is the time when importers increase purchases to serve the year-end holiday season. Global demand for nuts increases, while export prices are forecast to remain stable, creating favorable conditions for Vietnamese businesses. Positive signals about prices, markets and export growth rate are important foundations for the cashew industry to make a breakthrough in the final period of the year.

According to the Import-Export Department ( Ministry of Industry and Trade ), the average export price of cashew nuts in September reached 6,781 USD/ton, down slightly by 0.3% compared to the previous month but still up 3.9% over the same period in 2024. The average price in the first 9 months of the year reached 6,801 USD/ton, up 17.6% over the same period, reflecting the strong recovery trend of the world market.

Raw cashew nuts are prepared for export processing at a cashew factory in Dong Nai (Photo: Duy Khang).

China takes the lead, America still lags

In September, China, the United States, the Netherlands, Germany and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) were the five largest cashew nut export markets of Vietnam, accounting for more than 58% of total exports. Except for the United States, the amount of cashew nuts exported to the remaining markets all grew strongly compared to the same period.

China continues to be the largest market, with 17,300 tons of cashew nuts, worth nearly 111 million USD - up more than 41% over the previous month. In the first 9 months, exports to China reached 125,690 tons, worth 797.42 million USD, up 37.4% in volume and 54.1% in value over the same period in 2024.

Meanwhile, exports to the US showed signs of improvement compared to August but still decreased sharply compared to last year. In September, Vietnam exported 12,760 tons to the US, worth 83.7 million USD, up nearly 9% in volume and 9.5% in value compared to the previous month. However, in the first 9 months, the total export volume only reached 107,510 tons, worth 721.28 million USD - down 28.8% in volume and 17.3% in value compared to the same period.

In addition to China, many other markets such as Germany, UAE and UK have recorded positive growth, contributing to market diversification and reducing dependence on some traditional partners.

Impact of US countervailing duties and market shifts

Mr. Ta Quang Huyen - Vice Chairman of Vinacas, Chairman of the Board of Directors and General Director of Hoang Son 1 Joint Stock Company - said that the US's imposition of reciprocal taxes caused cashew exports to this market to decline, but exports to China increased sharply, helping to make up for the shortage.

Regarding the information that US President Donald Trump announced to reduce the reciprocal tax to 0% for agricultural products that the US does not produce such as coffee, pepper, cashews, etc., Mr. Huyen said that this is just a proposal, the two sides are still in the negotiation process. Currently, Vietnam is still subject to a 20% tax when exporting cashews to the US.

According to Mr. Huyen, the increase in import tax is mainly due to the US government collecting from importers or distributors, and Vietnamese businesses do not directly bear this cost. However, high tax makes the Vietnamese cashew industry less competitive than countries with tax incentives, affecting business efficiency and the ability to expand market share.

Regarding the year-end market outlook, Mr. Huyen said that US importers will increase purchases, but are still waiting for the results of tax negotiations. In fact, consumption demand in the US has not decreased; the main reason is that the amount of inventory from last year is still large, forcing businesses to temporarily reduce imports for 6-7 months to consume all inventory.

“If the tax policy is adjusted to 0%, US importers will certainly increase purchases. Currently, the price of cashew nuts is only about 3.2-3.3 USD/kg, plus 20% tax, it is about 3.7-3.8 USD/kg - still at a level that the US market can absorb well,” said Mr. Huyen.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/nganh-dieu-viet-nam-tien-sat-muc-tieu-45-ty-usd-ky-vong-cham-moc-5-ty-usd-20251021114808439.htm