The international gold market has just experienced days of unprecedented volatility, with prices continuously climbing and breaking historical records due to the impact of geopolitical tensions, trade wars and the weakening of the USD.

At the beginning of the week, the spot gold price in the international market successively surpassed important thresholds: 3,150 USD/ounce, 3,200 USD/ounce; officially surpassed the 3,330 USD/ounce mark on April 16, before reaching a historic peak of 3,357 USD/ounce on April 17.

On April 17, gold plummeted, at one point dropping to $3,290/ounce, before closing at $3,329/ounce.

The uptrend this week was reinforced by unprecedented safe-haven demand and optimistic forecasts from major financial institutions around the world such as Goldman Sachs, S&P and experts. According to a survey by Kitco News, up to 94% of Wall Street experts and 69% of individual investors forecast gold prices to increase this week.

In Vietnam, the gold price has just experienced a historic week when it continuously set new peaks. The 115 million VND/tael mark was quickly surpassed in just 2 days. By the end of April 17, the price of SJC gold bars was listed at 115-118 million VND/tael (buy-sell), while gold rings were at 114-117.5 million VND/tael. Thus, the domestic gold price has broken all records, increasing by about 22 million VND/tael in just one month, equivalent to an increase of about 23%.

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Gold prices are forecast to remain on an upward trend despite increasing pressure to adjust. Photo: KC

By this morning, SJC had jumped to 120 million VND/tael. The difference between domestic and international gold prices was pushed to a very high level, nearly 15 million VND/tael - compared to the previous difference of only 3-4 million VND/tael.

This partly reflects the sudden surge in trading demand, with many people lining up to buy gold - especially gold rings, causing some stores to run out of stock.

The recent global gold price movement has been driven by many factors, such as US tariff policies, global economic instability and large capital flows into gold ETFs - especially in China. However, experts still warn of the risk of price adjustments if trade negotiations make positive progress.

Overbought, what's the surprise?

On Kitco, some experts said the gold market was in an overbought state, but most said the sharp decline in the trading session on April 17 was mainly due to profit-taking activities of investors, as the market entered the long Easter holiday. Selling pressure increased when the gold price exceeded the threshold of 3,350 USD/ounce.

However, many experts still believe that the gold market is maintaining a steady upward trend, supported by the weakening momentum of the USD.

This forecast was reinforced when gold prices recovered to $3,329/ounce, after falling to $3,290/ounce in the same session.

On Kitco, Mr. David Morrison - an analyst from Trade Nation - noted that it should not be too surprising that gold adjusted down, because this precious metal has increased by 360 USD, equivalent to about 13%, in just over a week.

Gold appears to be overbought, with the daily moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator reaching levels similar to those seen in early 2011, according to Morrison. Profit-taking pressure at higher prices is evident.

However, gold prices quickly recovered after a strong sell-off that occurred at the end of the trading session on April 17 in the US market (early morning of April 18 Vietnam time), when the USD ended the week at its lowest level in three years. The DXY index retreated to 99.3 points.

Christopher Vecchio, an expert at Tastylive, believes that gold will continue to benefit from a further weakening of the greenback, even though the USD is unlikely to lose its role as the global reserve currency anytime soon. According to Mr. Vecchio, Donald Trump's trade policies are one of the reasons for the decline in the USD's position.

On Kitco, currency analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman also forecast that the USD will continue to weaken. This will contribute to supporting the strong and unprecedented price increase of gold.

That's why Vecchio still sees every correction in gold prices as an opportunity to buy.

However, according to experts, it is important for investors to “catch the right wave” in the long-term uptrend of the market. Lukman Otunuga - senior analyst at FXTM - noted that by surpassing the $3,350/ounce mark, gold has increased by 28% since the beginning of the year, far exceeding the 24% of the previous year.

In the immediate future, many experts warn of the possibility of corrections after the recent strong price increase. A technical correction may occur before gold prices continue to move higher.

Depending on the magnitude of the correction, gold could retreat to $3,250 an ounce or even $3,140 an ounce, with key psychological support at $3,000. Conversely, if $3,300 proves to be a reliable support level, prices could consolidate and gradually move towards the next psychological levels like $3,400 and beyond.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said that while a significant correction is possible, he does not expect it to happen as soon as next week.

According to him, gold prices will eventually have to stop and undergo a correction in the range of 200-300 USD/ounce. However, that time may not come yet, because the market is still too uncertain. In addition, former President Donald Trump's latest attack on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell regarding monetary policy may increase risks in the bond market.

In Europe, on April 17, the European Central Bank (ECB) continued to cut interest rates for the 7th time in 10 months - reducing 0.25 percentage points, bringing the interest rate to 2.25%/year. This move was made in the context of "worsening growth prospects due to escalating trade tensions".

Meanwhile, investors are focusing on US economic indicators to assess the policy response of the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

Next week, the US will release a series of important data, including: manufacturing and services PMI index, new home sales (on Wednesday); durable goods orders, weekly jobless claims and existing home sales (on Thursday).

Gold price today April 18, 2025: SJC skyrocketed to 120 million despite the world 'falling downhill' . Domestic gold price today April 18, 2025 increased sharply by 2 million VND per tael as soon as it opened, despite the world gold price quickly turning down. SJC gold bars soared to a peak of 120 million VND/tael, while gold rings rose to 117 million VND.

Source: https://vietnamnet.vn/gia-vang-tren-dinh-lich-su-bi-qua-mua-chiu-ap-luc-lao-doc-con-bat-ngo-nao-2392478.html