According to information from the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HoSE), as of May 30, 2025, there were 604 listed and traded securities on HoSE, including 391 stock codes, 4 closed-end fund certificates, 17 ETF fund certificates and 192 covered warrant codes with a total listed securities volume of more than 180.4 billion securities.
The capitalization value of stocks on HoSE reached more than VND 5.72 million billion, up 11.76% compared to the previous month and equivalent to 49.73% of GDP in 2024, accounting for more than 94.23% of the total capitalization value of listed stocks in the whole market.
Listed companies with market capitalization over 1 billion USD There are 43 enterprises, of which 3 have a capitalization of over 10 billion USD : Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam ( Vietcombank ), Vingroup Corporation (VIC) and Vinhomes Joint Stock Company (VHM).
Notably, in May, with a market capitalization of billions of USD, foreign exchange returned to net buying for the first time in 16 months. In May, foreign investors net bought 35.2 million USD on HSX, while net selling 10.0 million USD on HNX and 6.4 million USD on UPCoM, leading to a total net buying value of 18.8 million USD on all 3 exchanges. Foreign investors net bought mainly MBB (+89.4 million USD), MWG (+59.0 million USD) and PNJ (+45.8 million USD). In contrast, foreign investors net sold mainly VHM (-173.9 million USD), VCB (-77.5 million USD) and VNM (-26.0 million USD).
According to Vietcap Research, in the first 5 months of 2025, foreign net selling was recorded at Indonesia's JCI (-2.7 billion USD), Thailand's SET (-1.8 billion USD), Vietnam's VNI (-1.5 billion USD) and the Philippines' PCOMP (-523 million USD).
Entering June, the Vietnam-US trade negotiations are about to enter a “crucial” phase, investors should increase their caution. Foreign investors also sold heavily in the first week of June, net selling VND1,781 billion across the market.
The Vietnamese stock market witnessed a positive trend in the first two sessions of the week with the VN-Index climbing to 1,347.3 points. However, profit-taking pressure increased sharply at the resistance zone of 1,350 points, causing domestic stock indices to fall consecutively in the last three sessions of the week. The lack of supportive information in the market after the "first quarter business results and shareholders' meeting" season, along with the lack of breakthrough in the US-Vietnam trade negotiations, has made investors more cautious, especially when the 90-day tax deferral period is only a little over a month away from expiring.
The weekend session witnessed a sharp increase in selling pressure, pulling the VN-Index down to 1,329.8 points, marking a slight decrease of 0.2% compared to the previous weekend.
Moving into the next trading week, experts from VNDIRECT Securities Company believe that the VN-Index will retest the support zone around 1,320 points (equivalent to the MA20 line). The performance of the VN-Index in this zone will determine whether the short-term uptrend of the market is maintained or not. If this support is lost, the VN-Index may retreat to a deeper support zone at 1,300 points.
In that context, investors should consider lowering leverage and adjusting the proportion of stocks to a safe level if the VN-Index fails to maintain the 1,320-point zone. Profit realization and prioritizing portfolio risk management should be prioritized in the context of the market entering a "crucial" 30 days with many important events taking place such as the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy meeting in mid-June and the deadline for negotiating reciprocal taxes in early July.
Looking at the whole of June 2025, Vietcap Research expects the macro indicators for May and the first 5 months of 2025 to continue to be positive. However, a number of factors may make investors more cautious in June, including: (1) VN-Index reaching its highest level in more than 2 years; (2) resurgent US-China trade tensions, as both sides accuse each other of violating trade agreements; and (3) investors waiting for developments from the next round of Vietnam-US tariff negotiations scheduled for June.
At the end of May, the trailing P/E ratio of VN-Index was 13.5 times, compared to 11.0 times for PCOMP of the Philippines, 13.7 times for SET of Thailand and 16.9 times for JCI of Indonesia.
Recorded at securities companies in June, the group of recommended stocks that received attention was MSR with a purchase price below VND 19,000/share, target price of VND 23,000/share when this stock just had a breakthrough through the medium-term downtrend channel (February 2025) as well as MA50 resistance at the end of May. Stocks that have been accumulating price increases since the beginning of April such as MSR are the choice of short-term cash flow.
VCG is also a stock of choice. In addition to the expectations of "playing" the catalyst of "state capital divestment game", VCG is basically expected to benefit from the trend of promoting public investment when it continuously wins bids for large projects such as Package 4.7 & 4.8 of Long Thanh International Airport Project, Hanoi Ring Road 3.5 Project... The total value of construction projects that VCG won bids for is estimated at more than 11,600 billion VND.
VCG also has two urban area projects for sale in Mong Cai, Quang Ninh , namely Vinaconex Mong Cai urban area (44 ha) and Hoa Binh Boulevard urban area (49 ha). With the sales progress of the two projects following the plan, investors expect VCG to record the remaining revenue from these two projects in the short term.
Rong Viet Securities has brought back its investment strategy perspective for June with the portfolio in this period returning to the balanced weighting direction. In addition, VPB stock with a higher risk appetite is chosen instead of VCB in the context of market risks settling down and expecting a change in flow in the near future. In addition, the weight of the utility sector is reduced and the weight of stocks with a clear growth business story is increased. Accordingly, PVS and PHR will replace POW and GEG.
Among them, VPB stands out to many investors thanks to its attractive valuation and clear growth story, but its stock price has not yet reflected its full potential.
According to Rong Viet Securities Company, VPB shares are currently priced cheaply with much room for improvement when internal issues are resolved. It is expected that VPB's balance sheet will gradually become healthier after reforming its risk management capacity, with the participation of SMBC, combined with the recovery of the real estate market and legal relief for large real estate investors. This expectation, combined with a high credit growth limit thanks to participation in restructuring weak banks, is forecast to help the compound growth of pre-tax profit in the period of 2025-2028 reach 32% and bring ROAE to 18% in the next 3 years.
Rong Viet believes that these two factors are the key to helping VPB be better valued. VPB is currently valued at 0.9x 2025F P/B, 25% lower than the average P/B valuation of the banking portfolio that Rong Viet monitors as well as 40% lower than VPB's average 5-year P/B valuation.
Source: https://baodautu.vn/goc-nhin-ttck-tuan-9-136-kiem-dinh-lai-vung-ho-tro-quanh-moc-1320-diem-d299330.html
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