JPMorgan predicts VN-Index could reach 2,200 points

In addition to upgrading its rating on the Vietnamese market following the upgrade, JPMorgan also forecasted that 22 Vietnamese stocks could be added to the FTSE EM indexes.

JPMorgan's updated report on its strategy for the Vietnamese market recently mentioned the information that FTSE confirmed upgrading Vietnam's stock market to a secondary emerging market from September 2026.

With this result, JPMorgan's research team estimates that passive capital flows into Vietnam could reach 1.3 billion USD, with an estimated weight of 0.34% in the FTSE Emerging Market All Cap Index.  

“We raise our 12-month baseline/positive target for the VN-Index to 2,000/2,200 points, representing a potential upside of 20-30% from current levels, based on strong macro fundamentals, ongoing reforms and upgrade expectations,” JP Morgan said.  

The major investment bank expects earnings growth to be the main driver of the market, with consensus forecasts for EPS growth of around 20% in 2026-2027. If MSCI EM also upgrades Vietnam, the index could rise another 10% thanks to a P/E re-evaluation.

This new target represents a forward P/E of 15-16.5 times over the next 12 months. While higher than the ASEAN and emerging market averages, JPMorgan believes that the long-term growth rate is sufficient to justify this valuation. It should be noted that this is still lower than the two previous peaks of the VN-Index (P/E of 17 times in 2021 and 23 times in 2018).

The report also highlighted the Government’s recent reforms to meet the FTSE EM criteria. In addition to upgrading FTSE, JPMorgan said that many other initiatives are still being implemented to strengthen the capital market: “Currently, the Ministry of Finance has a plan to deploy the central clearing counterparty (CCP) model in the first quarter of 2027 and expand many new products (intraday trading, securities lending, etc.). These moves are expected to help Vietnam move closer to upgrading to MSCI EM, which the Government has set a target of completing by 2030.”  

JPMorgan has also estimated that 22 Vietnamese stocks could be added to the FTSE EM indices, based on current market capitalization. Passive capital inflows are estimated to reach about $1.3 billion, with a weight of 0.34% in the FTSE Emerging Market All Cap index.

Forecast 22 Vietnamese stocks may be added to FTSE EM indices.

However, the report still warned that the market still faces many short-term challenges that could limit the upside momentum.  

For example, profit-taking or portfolio sales by frontier market funds before Vietnam is officially added to the emerging market basket could create temporary capital withdrawal pressure. At the same time, the Vietnamese dong could be under pressure to depreciate due to loose monetary policy, high margin lending and weak seasonality in the fourth quarter. Strong capital mobilization from securities companies such as TCBS, VPS, VPBS, MBS could also reduce capital inflows into the market.  

In this context, JPMorgan maintains its recommendation to increase the proportion of Vietnamese banks (such as VCB,ACB ), industrials and non-essential consumer goods. On the contrary, increased competition may put pressure on the securities company group, especially when the stocks of this group have increased by about 50% since the beginning of the year.  

Source: https://baodautu.vn/jpmorgan-du-bao-vn-index-co-the-len-den-2200-diem-d411530.html