Difficult start to growth, Quang Nam expects opportunities to break out ahead

Imports and exports are expected to increase, no worries. In the photo: Unloading imported goods at Tam Hiep port. Photo: TRINH DUNG

Growth in adversity

On April 1, 2025, the General Statistics Office announced that Quang Nam's GRDP in the first quarter of 2025 increased by nearly 4.1% over the same period in 2024. With this increase, Quang Nam's GRDP ranked 60th out of 63 provinces and cities, the lowest, 14th out of 14 provinces and cities in the North Central and Central Coast, and 5th out of 5 provinces and cities in the key economic region of the Central region.

According to the analysis, the total added value (VA) of economic sectors is estimated at 11.9 trillion VND, up 8.3% over the same period last year. The economic scale of Quang Nam province in the first quarter of 2025 is estimated at 27.6 trillion VND (at current prices), up 1.9 trillion VND (up 7.4%) over the same period last year.

Compared to 63 provinces and cities nationwide, 14 provinces in the North Central and Central Coast regions and 5 provinces and cities in the Central Key Economic Zone, Quang Nam's GRDP scale ranks 32nd/63, 8th/14 and 4th/5; VA growth rate ranks 24th/63, 4th/14 and 3rd/5...

These statistics show the paradox and difference that occurred in economic operations in the first quarter of 2025. VA of all economic sectors grew quite well, but product taxes minus product subsidies decreased sharply (down 17.3% over the same period), not reflecting the overall picture of the economy, reducing GRDP growth by 3.48 percentage points.

The main reason is that total product tax revenue in the area in the first quarter of 2025 only reached VND 3,388 billion (down 13%). Meanwhile, import tax continued to be recorded at a negative VND 775 billion due to tax refunds, significantly affecting budget revenue.

Value added tax and other product taxes reached VND4,163 billion, down 4%. Most of the impact came from the policy of reducing registration fees, especially from Truong Hai.

According to statistics, revenue from Truong Hai Group in the first quarter of 2025 reached VND 2,538 billion (down 8% over the same period last year).

Mr. Nguyen Viet Xuan - Deputy Director of the Tax Department of Region XII said that from July 1, 2023 to December 31, 2023, the policy of reducing registration fees applied has stimulated a strong increase in demand for car purchases, especially at the end of the year.

According to regulations, taxes arising in December 2023 will be extended to be paid before January 20, 2024, helping tax revenue in the first quarter of 2024 increase, especially in January 2024 (reaching VND 1,664 billion). However, in 2024, this policy will only be applied from September 1 to November 30, causing the number of cars sold in December 2024 to no longer enjoy the same incentives as last year.

As a result, the tax revenue generated this month was significantly lower, leading to a decrease in tax payments in January 2025. This caused total tax revenue in the first quarter of 2025 to decrease compared to the same period last year, even though economic activity maintained stable growth.

Will achieve double-digit growth plan

Mr. Le Quy Dat - Head of Quang Nam Statistical Office said that total VA (3 economic sectors) in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 8.3%, but taxes decreased sharply due to tax refunds and tax extensions (tax refunds in the first quarter of 2025 were negative in 2024), leading to GRDP being only 4.1%.

The processing and manufacturing industry has developed strongly and is the main driving force of local economic growth (photo taken at THACO Industry). Photo: TRINH DUNG

However, the good growth of all economic sectors is a bright spot of the economy. Product taxes are mainly paid by businesses on behalf of consumers, so the deadlines for payment, extension, and refund may not coincide with economic activities.

According to Mr. Dat, taxes cannot fully reflect economic growth. The first quarter of 2025 is too short, the production cycle has not yet ended, and cannot fully reflect the operation of the economy because during this period, imports are usually low, and taxes are refunded for last year, so in the second quarter of 2025, taxes may increase to compensate for the first quarter of 2025. In the long term, it will reflect more clearly. Total VAT is an important indicator of the economy.

According to the management agencies, when deciding to set the planned economic growth at 10%, the Quang Nam government anticipated the difficulties it would encounter. However, the positive VA growth rate shows that the economy is still growing well, apart from the limitations related to public investment, site clearance and mergers, especially the disbursement of public investment capital has only reached 7.7%. However, the economy still has many supports to stimulate growth.

Disbursement will not stop at a low level, helping the economy absorb capital. Industrial production, including the processing and manufacturing industry, has a clear recovery. Tourism and services are vibrant. Agriculture, forestry and fishery maintain stable growth, ensuring supply and contributing to stabilizing the local economy... There may be many challenges, but it will also open up opportunities for local economic development.

According to the Quang Nam Statistics Office, in a survey of 90 processing and manufacturing enterprises, in the second quarter of 2025, up to 46% of enterprises (mainly FDI and private) forecast that production and business will be better than in the first quarter of 2025. Only about 15 surveyed enterprises responded that it would be more difficult in the second quarter of 2025.

According to the forecast of the Director of the General Statistics Office Le Quy Dat, in the second quarter of 2025, the service sector will grow strongly thanks to tourism events, festivals... that will take place. Industry has many advantages, but there will also be many fluctuations because there has not been any support from the Government to reduce registration fees.

Scarce material sources, rising prices, site clearance bottlenecks, many projects on hold, but in the short term, agriculture will grow quite steadily, processing and manufacturing industries will have growth rates similar to the first quarter of 2025 and possibly higher, and services will improve. Total VA growth is forecast to increase by about 7.1%.

Chairman of the provincial People's Committee Le Van Dung said that the locality will have more difficulties in carrying out its economic management tasks. The US imposition of a 46% tax rate will be difficult for export enterprises and workers, but the economy will still develop.

Tax refunds have dragged down growth, but there is nothing to worry about. The remaining quarters of the year will make up for it, ensuring the economy runs smoothly, creating conditions for double-digit economic growth to be achieved.

Source: https://baoquangnam.vn/khoi-dau-tang-truong-kho-khan-quang-nam-ky-vong-co-hoi-but-len-phia-truoc-3152344.html