What to do to grow more than 7% per year?

Workers of Phuc Sinh Joint Stock Company process Vietnamese pepper for export to the EU market – Photo: QUANG DINH

There is no reason why we should not decentralize and delegate power, no reason why we should not abolish the mechanism of asking and giving. There may be problems and conflicts in the implementation process, so we will continue to resolve them.

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh

Those were the key instructions of Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh at the regular online Government meeting for September 2024 with 63 provinces and cities yesterday, October 7.

Many provinces overcome difficulties and grow positively

The report by Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung indicated that GDP growth in the third quarter is estimated at 7.4% over the same period.

This level is 0.7% higher than the scenario in Resolution No. 01, equivalent to the 7% annual growth scenario.

Notably, some localities heavily affected by storm Yagi still maintained high growth momentum such as Hai Phong at 9.77%, Quang Ninh 8.02%, Phu Tho 9.56%, Lao Cai 7.71%, Cao Bang 7%, Yen Bai 7.15%...

Analyzing growth drivers, Mr. Dung said supply-side factors are changing positively.

Of which, agriculture grew, meeting demand; services grew well; industry recovered quickly, being the driving force for economic growth. There were about 183,000 enterprises entering the market, higher than the number of enterprises withdrawing, which was 163,800 enterprises.

The General Statistics Office surveyed and showed that 82.6% of enterprises in the processing and manufacturing industry assessed that the business situation in the fourth quarter would be stable or improve. This shows confidence in a positive recovery.

In addition, the growth momentum from the demand side also recovered more positively. Total social investment capital recovered, typically private capital increased by 7.1% (same period increased by 2.1%); FDI attraction continued to be a bright spot with registered capital of 24.8 billion USD, realized capital of about 17.3 billion USD, up 8.9%.

Among the localities, Bac Giang and Thanh Hoa are the two “bright spots” in the country’s 9-month socio-economic picture, leading in GRDP growth. Bac Giang Provincial Party Secretary Nguyen Van Gau said that the 9-month growth is estimated at 13.89%, leading the country.

However, the province still faces some difficulties due to the impact of Typhoon Yagi. Therefore, the province recommends that the Government and ministries pay attention to supporting localities to overcome the consequences of the typhoon to quickly stabilize the situation and restore production.

Meanwhile, Chairman of Thanh Hoa Provincial People's Committee Do Minh Tuan said the province's GRDP reached 12.46%, ranking second in the country.

Mr. Tuan said he will focus on removing bottlenecks in mechanisms and institutions with the spirit of "removing where there is a problem, removing what is a problem" in accordance with the law but in accordance with reality, quickly and effectively.

In recent years, production and business enterprises in Ha Long City (Quang Ninh) have developed rapidly - Photo: NAM TRAN

Promote the policy of "local decision, local action, local responsibility"

Praising the efforts and attempts to overcome difficulties of a number of ministries, branches and localities, especially Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, which contributed over 51% of the total national budget revenue, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh said that the efforts and sharing in overcoming the consequences of natural disasters of localities, especially Lao Cai, Quang Ninh and Hai Phong in the process of overcoming the consequences of storm Yagi are of great significance.

Although the economy has achieved positive results, with each quarter higher than the previous quarter and the first 9 months of this year higher than the proposed scenario, the Prime Minister acknowledged that there are still many difficulties and challenges.

Notably, Typhoon Yagi caused great damage, and the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic are still present. Pressure on macroeconomic management remains high.

The disbursement rate of public investment capital is still low, production in some areas is still difficult. Legal problems have not been resolved, a number of officials and civil servants avoid, push away, and fear responsibility. In some cases, they are still confused about grasping the situation, advising, and responding to policies...

With the great challenges, the Prime Minister requested ministries, branches and localities to closely monitor the international and domestic situation to have appropriate policy responses and timely, flexible and effective solutions.

In particular, it is necessary to promote decentralization and strong delegation of power according to the requirements of the 10th Central Conference with the viewpoint of "locality decides, locality acts, locality takes responsibility".

“There is no reason why we should not decentralize and delegate power, and there is no reason why we should not abolish the request-grant mechanism. There may be problems and conflicts during the implementation process, but we will continue to resolve them,” he said.

The Prime Minister emphasized the solutions, first of all, focusing on preventing and overcoming the consequences of natural disasters, storms and floods, stabilizing people's lives, promoting the recovery of production and business. Preparing projects, reports to the National Assembly, building and perfecting institutions.

Prioritize promoting growth associated with maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, and ensuring major balances. Strive to achieve a GDP growth rate of over 7% for the whole year, with a growth rate of 7.5-8% in the fourth quarter.

Focus on promoting and creating breakthroughs in disbursing public investment capital, strongly promoting 3 national target programs, striving to achieve a disbursement rate of at least 95%.

Focus on renewing traditional growth drivers (investment, export, consumption) and strongly promoting new growth drivers such as regional economy, regional linkages, and urban areas.

Promote the improvement of institutions and laws, remove legal obstacles, reform administrative procedures, promote digital transformation...

Source: General Statistics Office - Compiled by BAO NGOC - Graphics: T.DAT

* Dr. Nguyen Bich Lam (former General Director of General Statistics Office):

Public investment must be placed at the highest level.

Achieving the 7% GDP growth target this year is very difficult if looking at the growth drivers of the economy.

First of all, to achieve the disbursement of 95% of the assigned capital as the set target, the disbursement in the last 3 months of the year must be higher than the amount disbursed in the past 9 months.

If 95% of public investment capital is disbursed, the country's GDP will increase by 0.6%.

It is very difficult to do this, most likely the public investment disbursement rate this year will be the same as last year, reaching about 81% of the plan. Therefore, at this time, we should set a goal of trying to disburse public investment in the remaining 3 months at the highest level to contribute to growth.

Besides, although foreign investment has improved, foreign investment currently accounts for a small proportion, about 17-18% of total social investment capital.

It is worth noting that in the past 9 months, non-state investment accounted for a large proportion of total social investment capital.

In the first 9 months, non-state investment reached over 1.33 trillion VND, accounting for 55% of total social investment capital (up 7.1% over the same period last year). Therefore, one of the important solutions to promote growth from now until the end of the year is to promote private investment.

If we look at the growth driver of import and export, to have growth in import and export turnover this year must be higher than last year, especially the contribution to growth must be trade surplus. These figures up to this point in 2024 are somewhat lower than in 2023.

The next driver of economic growth this year is final consumption, with total retail sales of goods in the first nine months at comparable prices increasing by only 5.8%, compared to 7.6% in the same period last year.

In other words, the driving force of final consumption by households and the Government (budget expenditure) this year is only about 6%. Therefore, we must make great efforts to promote the three growth drivers mentioned above to achieve the set GDP growth target for the whole year.

* Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh (Head of Macro and Market Strategy Department, Vndirect Securities):

3-month exports make important contribution to year-end growth

Figures show that the US market led export growth in the first eight months of this year with an increase of 26% over the same period.

At the same time, investment capital flows from Singapore, Hong Kong and China also grew positively, showing that the trend of shifting production to Vietnam is being promoted.

Not to mention the global monetary easing cycle, led by major central banks in the US, Europe and China, will boost consumption in these markets, thereby increasing demand for Vietnam's exports.

In addition, cooling inflation in many parts of the world also contributed to the improvement in consumption.

Macro data in recent months on IIP (industrial production index), PMI (purchasing managers index), export orders, disbursed FDI... have also gradually revealed a positive export picture in the last months of 2024.

Based on the above, it is forecasted that Vietnam's export turnover this year may grow by about 15% over the same period.

However, there are still challenges for Vietnam's exports in the coming time, first of all the impact from the strike at seaports in the eastern United States.

If this problem is not resolved soon, it will have a certain impact on Vietnam's exports to the US, Vietnam's largest export market.

At the same time, geopolitical competition among major countries can cause disruptions in the global value chain, thereby having negative impacts on Vietnam's production and export activities.

Therefore, in order for exports to continue to be an important driving force for growth this year, Vietnamese enterprises need to proactively expand markets and diversify supply chains to minimize risks and impacts from being too focused on a certain market or supplier.

Besides, the State Bank should also operate a stable and predictable exchange rate to support the activities of import-export enterprises.

How to handle legal problems to decentralize power?

Deputy Minister of Home Affairs Truong Hai Long said that some ministries and branches have a mentality of being respectful and evasive, and are often afraid to decentralize to localities because they fear that the localities have not been able to implement it.

Therefore, the Prime Minister directed to speed up progress, promptly remove obstacles, unblock resources, and create motivation for localities to focus on socio-economic development to meet set targets.

The Prime Minister has established a steering committee to review and resolve problems in the legal system, a task that the Ministry of Justice advises on. When reviewing practical problems to remove them and free up resources, it is required to delegate authority in accordance with the spirit that each level is responsible, with clear people, clear work, and clear responsibilities.

Simplify administrative procedures, reduce compliance costs when implementing procedures in legal documents.

What is the solution to reduce housing prices due to inflation?

Regarding the reasons for the increase in real estate prices, Deputy Minister of Construction Nguyen Viet Hung said that it was primarily due to the imbalance between supply and demand. Along with that was the situation of price inflation, price hikes, and high real estate investment costs (construction investment costs and land use fees).

To address this situation, the law has clearly stipulated regulations on price inflation and market manipulation in many laws. The Prime Minister issued Official Dispatch 82 on promptly rectifying the work of auctioning land use rights.

On that basis, the Ministry has issued a circular with solutions to strengthen the management and control of real estate price fluctuations. It has proposed that competent authorities consider and pilot the model of a real estate transaction center and land use rights transaction managed by the State.

Rescue forces of Phu Tho province organized a search in the Phong Chau bridge area - Photo: T.QUAN

Localities without storms and floods need to share and compensate for damage

At the regular Government press conference on the afternoon of October 7, Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment Tran Quoc Phuong said that according to preliminary assessments, Typhoon Yagi is estimated to have caused damage of VND81,500 billion, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points. Many public infrastructure works and large local infrastructures were severely affected.

Regarding the 7% growth target this year, the Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment said that if there were no storms or floods, the growth figure could have been higher. Therefore, based on the results achieved, the ministry still maintains the target of striving for 7% or higher for the whole year.

To achieve the goal, Mr. Phuong said one of the proposed solutions is that localities that are not affected and have potential need to share and make more efforts to compensate for losses such as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/lam-gi-de-tang-truong-ca-nam-hon-7-20241008085405311.htm