Moscow's unused "card" revealed, the West is ignoring the "red line", who will pay a higher price?

If nuclear testing is a "red line" set by Moscow in case Ukraine is allowed to use long-range missiles provided by its allies to attack Russia, will the West dare to cross it? Who will pay a higher price in this "battle of wits"?

In the current context, it is not impossible that Russian President Vladimir Putin will send some nuclear messages. (Source: AP)

Nuclear message

On September 12, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the West would directly confront Moscow if it allowed Ukraine to use long-range missiles to attack Russia, which would change the nature of the conflict.

The leader vowed an “adequate” response, but did not specify what that would entail. However, in June 2024, Putin spoke of arming Western adversaries to attack Western targets abroad and deploying conventional missiles within range of the United States and its European allies.

If the West allows Ukraine to use long-range missiles to attack Russia, how will Moscow react? That is the question experts are asking, and predicting a number of scenarios.

Mr. Ulrich Kühn, a weapons expert at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy in Hamburg (Germany), commented that it is possible that President Putin will send some nuclear messages - for example, test nuclear weapons in an effort to threaten the West.

"Apart from using nuclear weapons, what other cards does Putin have if the West continues to support Kiev?", expert Ulrich Kühn asked.

Russia has not conducted a nuclear weapons test since 1990, a year before the collapse of the Soviet Union. According to expert Ulrich Kühn, a nuclear test would be something new and a scenario that cannot be ruled out.

In an interview, Gerhard Mangott, a security expert at the University of Innsbruck in Austria, said he also did not rule out that President Putin would conduct a nuclear test.

“Moscow could conduct a nuclear test. They have made all the necessary preparations,” said Gerhard Mangott.

Russia's UN Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia told the UN Security Council on September 13 that NATO would "directly engage in hostile actions against a nuclear power" if it allowed Kiev to use longer-range weapons against Moscow.

“People should not forget this and think about the consequences,” Mr. Nebenzia stressed.

Russia, the world's largest nuclear power, is in the process of adjusting the circumstances under which it would use nuclear weapons.

Tough on Britain, escalating conflict

Another approach Moscow could take would be to threaten Britain. London is leaning toward supporting Kiev’s use of Storm Shadow cruise missiles to attack targets in Russia.

Former Kremlin adviser Sergei Markov said on September 13 that Russia is capable of closing the British Embassy in Moscow and the Russian Embassy in London, attacking British drones and fighter jets near Russia, for example over the Black Sea, and possibly firing missiles at F-16 fighter jets carrying Storm Shadow missiles at their bases in Romania and Poland.

President Putin has not previously drawn red lines for the West. But his latest warning about long-range missiles is being seen both inside and outside Russia as something he would have to do if London or Washington allowed their missiles to be used against Moscow.

Expert Ulrich Kühn also added that, in addition to nuclear threats or attacks on British assets, more predictable responses could include Russia stepping up attacks on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure.

Are President Putin's words "worth it"?

According to expert Mangott, the danger for the West is that they do not know where President Putin's "red lines" really are.

Both the US and the UK appear to be ignoring President Putin’s warnings. On September 13 in Washington, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and US President Joe Biden held talks on whether to allow Ukraine to use the US’ long-range ATACMS missile or the UK’s Storm Shadow missile to target Russia.

London appears to be seeking Washington's approval to allow Kiev to use British Storm Shadow missiles to extend attacks on Russia.

President Biden’s approval may be necessary because Storm Shadow components are manufactured in the U.S. Mr. Starmer said negotiations would continue when global leaders gather for the annual session of the United Nations General Assembly this month.

Speaking to reporters ahead of private talks with Prime Minister Starmer, President Biden said he wanted to make clear that Mr Putin would not "prevail" in this conflict.

And when asked what he thought of President Putin's warning, Mr. Biden replied: "I don't think much of him."

On the same day, September 13, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin emphasized that decisions on providing military assistance to Ukraine are currently very complicated.

Meanwhile, Pentagon spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Charlie Dietz said the ATACMS tactical ballistic missile would not be the answer to the main threat Kiev faces from Russian long-range glide bombs, which are fired from a distance of more than 300 km (185 miles), beyond the reach of the ATACMS.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/xung-dot-nga-ukraine-lo-la-bai-moscow-chua-dung-den-phuong-tay-dang-phot-lo-lan-ranh-do-ai-se-phai-tra-gia-cao-hon-286633.html