Despite facing a series of indictments, Trump is still respected by many Americans for many reasons, the most important of which is the country's economic problems.
Donald Trump was the least popular president of all time, with nearly two-thirds of Americans disapproving him when he left office. But more than three years later, his popularity is on the rise.
The latest New York Times/Siena poll shows his approval rating at 44%, higher than his Democratic rival, President Joe Biden, who has a 38% approval rating. As views of President Biden have become increasingly negative, Americans have become more positive about Trump.
Former US President Donald Trump in Richmond, Virginia, March 2. Photo: Reuters
Across a range of polls, former President Trump’s approval ratings appear to have stabilized at a higher level than they were three years ago. Views of him have improved modestly among the American public overall, but have actually risen significantly among blacks, Latinos, young voters and working-class voters.
In Gallup surveys of American adults in late 2023, Trump's approval rating reached its highest level since before the 2020 election.
Among young adults, ages 18 to 34, Trump’s popularity has rebounded after a sharp drop as he sought to overturn the 2020 election results. About 42% of young Americans viewed him favorably in October 2020, but that dropped to 28% in January 2021, after the Capitol Hill riots. By December 2023, their favorability rating for the former president had rebounded to 42%.
A similar pattern holds among nonwhite Americans, with 27% viewing Trump favorably in October 2020. That percentage drops to 15% in January 2021 but rebounds to 28% in November 2022. The rebound is even more pronounced among Americans earning less than $40,000 a year. Thirty-seven percent viewed Trump favorably in October 2020, dropping to 32% in January 2021 but rising to 48% in December 2023.
“Overall, positive views of Trump are back to baseline,” said Lydia Saad, director of American social research at Gallup. “For young people, they’re back to where they were before the Capitol riot. It seems like he hasn’t recovered his favorability among white adults, but he’s exceeded his baseline among other ethnic groups.”
According to experts, the former president's credit recovery momentum can stem from three reasons.
First, he is benefiting from public pessimism about the US economy.
As the Covid-19 pandemic subsides, the economy has become the dominant narrative of President Biden’s presidency. It remains a top issue for all voters, but especially for Black, Latino and working-class Americans.
Trump made the booming pre-pandemic economy a centerpiece of his re-election bid four years ago, and he is continuing to use it as a central argument against Mr Biden in this year’s rematch.
Inflation, rising interest rates and conflicting views on the recovery from Covid-19 are the biggest liabilities for President Biden and the Democratic Party. Conversely, they could also be one of the biggest "assets" for former President Trump in his effort to rebuild his reputation.
For example, in a New York Times/Siena poll, Latino voters are feeling worse about the economy. Similarly, younger voters, under 30, are more pessimistic about the economy than older groups.
Seventy-three percent of white voters rate the economy as good or worse than it was under Trump, while 74 percent of black voters and 84 percent of Latinos say the same. Among younger voters, 86 percent say the same, eight percentage points higher than those aged 30 to 44.
There’s plenty of evidence to support this discontent. According to Vox political commentator Nicole Narea, Americans still think the economy is worse under Biden than it was under Trump, despite some signs of optimism. Economic confidence is down, anxiety is high, and Americans are racking up credit card debt, making the picture look bleak for most of the public.
At the same time, many Americans remember the Trump economy more positively than they view the current economy. A CBS News/YouGov poll last month found that 65% of respondents said the US economy under former President Trump was “good,” while just 38% said the same about the economy under Biden.
Similar sentiments emerged in a New York Times/Siena poll, with Americans of all races, ages and genders feeling that Trump’s policies, especially the economy, have benefited them more than what President Biden is doing.
Some of the economic impact of the pandemic in both presidencies was beyond the control of the White House chief, but this does not change the belief of many that President Biden bears more responsibility than his predecessor Trump for the state of the economy.
Trump's strong recovery in approval ratings may also stem from his low starting point.
One of the consequences of elections is the tendency for the country to become divided, with voters who support one candidate viewing the other side in a negative light. The elected president is tasked with bridging that divide and uniting the country, often with the help of the outgoing leader.
But Trump did the opposite in 2020. He refused to concede to Biden and even repeatedly claimed that the election was rigged, one of the reasons for the Capitol riots. That had a particularly negative impact on Trump, pushing his standing with the American public to a seemingly irrecoverable low.
In analyzing a survey conducted after the riots, the Pew Research Center found that Trump's approval rating had dropped to 29%, down 9 percentage points from an August 2020 poll and "the largest change between two Pew polls since he took office." Much of this may have been due to Republicans turning against Trump in the immediate aftermath.
Previously, the combined impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and social unrest caused the former president's popularity and trust to plummet towards the end of his term.
From August 2020 to January 2021, Trump’s approval rating among Hispanics dropped 11 percentage points. His approval rating among blacks fell from 9% to 4%, and among young voters it fell from 25% to 23%.
Given Trump’s poor performance three years ago, it’s possible that the current uptick in the former president’s approval ratings is partly due to the fading memories of the Capitol Hill riots and the fact that 2020 was such a tumultuous year. Republicans rallying to his defense after a series of indictments also helped sway public opinion.
The third reason Trump’s standing has improved is that the public is paying less attention to the election than it did before. In addition, the former president is campaigning differently, changing the way the media covers him.
In Gallup surveys of how closely Americans follow national politics, the share of people who say they follow it “very closely” dropped to 32% in 2023, down nearly 10 percentage points from 2020. A similar sharp drop in attention was seen in data on young adults and nonwhite Americans from 2020 to 2023.
While the former president's media coverage remains huge, observers say it cannot compare to his 2016 campaign or the re-election campaign he launched as the incumbent president in 2020.
Aside from the news of the indictments Trump faces, he no longer seems to be as present in the public eye as he once was.
He has also lost the spotlight as a leader after a year of crisis, and his campaign events have been geared toward conservative audiences and media. The reduced media presence may be a good thing for the former US president, as he limits the risk of "slipping up" or being negatively evaluated by the public for his controversial views, experts say.
President Biden may have recognized this as well. In an interview with New Yorker journalist Evan Osnos, he complained that the press did not pay enough attention to his own record and also the “threat” from former President Trump.
Osnos said the conundrum facing the American press in covering Trump's current campaign is that at certain times it's difficult to convey to the public when to pay attention to truly disturbing moments, because the former president can do so many things to shock.
At his first major rally in Waco, Texas, on March 25, 2023, Trump's campaign opened with a video showing people convicted of the Capitol Hill riots singing the US national anthem, along with some images of the riot. "You will be vindicated and you will be proud," Trump declared.
“That moment really went unnoticed by the media,” Osnos admitted.
Vu Hoang (According to Vox, AFP, Reuters )
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