A world in transformation

The year 2023 witnessed a period of profound and comprehensive transformation in the international order, with far-reaching geopolitical implications.

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Towards a multipolar world

Against the backdrop of the increasing rise of middle-sized nations, the power gap between the two superpowers and other influential countries appears to be narrowing. While international scholars continue to debate whether the world is currently multipolar or bipolar, many believe that the inevitable long-term trend will be towards a multipolar world.

The reason is that unipolar or bipolar states are often unstable and difficult to sustain in the long term, especially in the era of globalization, where power tends to be more dispersed rather than concentrated in any one country. The growing roles of India and Indonesia in the Southern Hemisphere, along with the challenge posed by Russia to the US-led Western bloc, demonstrate the growing dissatisfaction with the post-1945 order.

This will likely put immense pressure on countries to renegotiate existing norms of conduct, the "rules of the game," and, more broadly, regional structures and global governance in the not-too-distant future.

However, this is not an inevitable outcome, as modern history has yet to see a truly peaceful transfer of global order. The European Union only emerged after the Napoleonic Wars, which dismantled the existing order governing relations between European powers. Only after the end of World War II were the United States and the Soviet Union able to establish a bipolar order. The only exception was the United States entering a unipolar era after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

However, these two superpowers had competed fiercely and comprehensively for more than four decades prior to that, and indirectly confronted each other in many major conflicts of the 20th century. Therefore, it can be said that there has never really been a case of a world order shifting without a major event occurring.

In 2023, the top powers continued their all-out competition, but there were some signs that the US was seeking to de-escalate tensions with both China and Russia. On the sidelines of the recent APEC summit in San Francisco, President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping held their first direct talks in a year since their meeting in Bali in November 2022. While this high-level meeting did not produce a breakthrough in US-China relations, the two sides did reach consensus on several important issues, particularly restoring communication channels between the two militaries.

Despite the tense military situation in Ukraine, the US decided to extend an invitation to Russia to attend APEC as a way to gradually thaw relations. Another noteworthy point is that in recent interviews, former US Army Chief of Staff Mark Milley repeatedly reiterated his earlier assessment that Ukraine should negotiate with Russia when the situation on the battlefield is favorable and that this conflict can only end through a diplomatic solution.

Relationship management efforts

Overall, major powers still prioritize their own interests and seek to control their rivals, but they are also making certain efforts to manage relationships and prevent conflicts from escalating into armed conflict. In the near future, it can be expected that US-China relations will improve significantly (though not qualitatively), especially if Biden wins the next election.

Two other key factors influencing the direction and potential for improvement in US-China relations will be the health of the Chinese economy and the determination of the US and its Western European allies to "de-risk." US-Russia relations will continue to be a major unknown quantity, as both personal factors like Putin and developments on the battlefield in Ukraine could interact in complex ways to impact Russia-US relations.

The slow pace of the Ukrainian army's counter-offensive almost guarantees that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will not end anytime soon. According to Metaculus, there is only a 1% chance that the two sides will reach a ceasefire or a peace treaty to end the current conflict before the end of 2023. Many forecasters on this site also predict that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will not end until the third quarter of 2025. This assessment is well-founded because several NATO members, such as Poland and Slovakia, have decided to stop military support for Ukraine, and a significant portion of the US political establishment is also questioning its financial and military commitment to Ukraine.

Given that the Russian economy has gradually stabilized after the first year of sanctions, and Western support for Ukraine is dwindling, ending this conflict in the near future will be difficult.

A major shock to the world in general and the Middle East in particular was the large-scale attack by Hamas on Israel on October 7th.

The "Gray Rhino" incident has disrupted Israel's efforts to normalize relations with its Arab neighbors, most notably Saudi Arabia. It also carries the potential for a large-scale war involving Hezbollah, Iran, and the United States. While this is a complex conflict likely to smolder for an extended period, the probability of escalation is low.

Economically, according to the IMF's assessment, the global economy will continue to face the lingering effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to a slow and uneven recovery. The organization also forecasts that global economic growth will slow from 3.5% in 2022 to 3.0% in 2023, and further to just 2.9% in 2024 (significantly lower than the average growth rate of 3.8% during the 2000-2019 period). This slowdown is more pronounced in developed economies, particularly in the Eurozone. Emerging markets and developing economies also face a slowdown in growth, largely due to the real estate crisis in China.

Inflation, a major concern, is projected to decline steadily but remain above target, with global inflation expected to fall to 5.8% in 2024. The global landscape is further complicated by geopolitical tensions and rising protectionism, impacting trade and contributing to price volatility, particularly for commodities.

This situation is further exacerbated by the economic challenges facing China and the risk of deeper crises with global implications. In addition, high debt and debt service costs, particularly in low-income countries, also pose significant risks. While the "hard landing" scenario may have lessened, geopolitical risks remain, further complicating the overall economic recovery and the transition to a green economy.

Finally, one of the most important keywords of 2023 was "technology," with a major breakthrough coming from the field of artificial intelligence after OpenAI launched ChatGPT. This software quickly became the focus of much debate, raising alarm bells about the potential risks that AI could pose to all of humanity in both the near and distant future.

Technology in general, and AI in particular, can not only significantly alter the balance of power between nations and change how countries wage war, but can also completely overturn the international order, or in the most extreme scenario, create a species capable of dominating humanity. For this reason, the UK recently hosted its first AI Summit, attended by delegates from 28 countries.

This event demonstrates that countries understand both the opportunities and challenges that AI presents, and that a multilateral collaborative effort will be needed to guide the development trajectory of this technology while controlling its most significant negative risks.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/mot-the-gioi-dang-chuyen-minh-254343.html