Energy leads, MXV-Index continues to maintain upward momentum

The Vietnam Commodity Exchange said that in the trading session on September 9, the world commodity market continued to increase. The MXV-Index increased by more than 0.1%, reaching 2,228 points. Oil prices increased sharply due to tensions in the Middle East. The cocoa market continued to face pressure from tight supply.

Soybean harvest at a farm in Formosa, Goias, Brazil. (Photo: THX/TTXVN)

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), energy market Yesterday's trading session recorded overwhelming buying power, when all 5 items in the group increased in price. Of which, Brent oil price closed up 0.56%, to 66.39 USD/barrel; WTI oil price also increased 0.59%, reaching 62.63 USD/barrel.

Market developments were boosted after tensions suddenly broke out between the Israeli army and Hamas forces in the capital Doha (Qatar), causing world oil prices to surge - at times exceeding 2%. However, the situation quickly calmed down, causing oil prices to narrow significantly towards the end of the session.

Oil prices continued to weaken for the rest of the session after the US side made a commitment to Doha that no similar move would take place on Qatari territory.

Investors assess that the geopolitical environment in the Middle East remains stable for now, with no new unusual risk factors emerging that could lead to disruptions in supply from the region.

“Both the US and Qatar have made it clear that they do not want to escalate tensions further, while the somewhat muted response from other members (of the Gulf Cooperation Council) reinforces the view that the risk of a political flare-up in the region remains under control,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy.

Besides, world oil price also received support from expectations that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve (FED) will decide to cut interest rates in September. These expectations were further reinforced after new information was not very positive about the labor market of the world's largest economy .

According to the preliminary report of the annual standard revision of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the actual number of jobs created in the 12 months ending in March this year was about 911,000 lower than the initial estimates. Although this is a potential factor that puts downward pressure on oil prices, investors still expect that the Fed will soon lower the base interest rate to boost economic growth, thereby increasing the demand for energy consumption in the US in the coming time.

In another development, the US natural gas market continued to recover in price during yesterday's trading session. At the end of the session, this commodity on the NYMEX floor increased by 0.87%, stopping at 3.12 USD/MMBtu - the highest level since late July.

The bullish momentum was reinforced not only by forecasts of prolonged hot weather but also by the US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook.

Accordingly, natural gas prices at the Henry Hub transit point are forecast to increase to USD 3.7/MMBtu in Q4/2025 and USD 4.3/MMBtu in 2026, mainly due to increased gas exports from the US.

Supply pressure supports cocoa prices

Not outside the general market trend, the industrial raw material group continued to maintain positive purchasing power on a number of key commodities. In particular, cocoa prices increased by more than 2.2%, reaching 7,395 USD/ton. According to MXV, tight supply was a factor supporting cocoa prices in yesterday's trading session.

Cocoa supply data from Côte d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast) has not shown positive signs yet, with cocoa arrivals in the week ending September 7 reaching only 7,000 tons, down from 9,000 tons the previous week and 12,000 tons in the same period last year.

Accumulated from the beginning of the crop year (from October 1) to now, the amount of cocoa arriving at ports has reached 1.68 million tons, down 2.32% compared to 1.72 million tons in the same period last year, and at the same time the lowest level in at least the past six years.

Meanwhile, Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, is facing its weakest crop in more than two decades, with production estimated at just 530,000 tonnes in 2024-25 due to disease and aging cocoa trees that have reduced yields.

A sharp drop in cocoa inventories also helped support prices yesterday. As of Tuesday, ICE-monitored inventories at U.S. ports fell to their lowest level in nearly four months, just over 2.1 million bags.

Meanwhile, traders are now focusing on supplies from the new crop, with some farmers interviewed by Reuters reporting fruit rot, blamed on cool, cloudy weather in August.

In coastal and southern regions, many farmers say they need more sunlight to dry newly harvested cocoa beans to ensure product quality.

Elsewhere, optimism remains despite modest harvests. Cargill has temporarily halted cocoa processing in Côte d'Ivoire due to poor bean quality in the current crop, Bloomberg reported.

On the weather front, drought conditions in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana are raising concerns about the impact on the upcoming cocoa crop. The region is currently experiencing a seasonal drought pattern, occurring in the middle of the rainy season, but this year's drought has been more severe and prolonged than usual.

According to the World Weather Service, rainfall over the past 30 days continues to be concentrated mainly in the north, apart from the main producing regions of Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, which recorded rainfall significantly below the long-term average.

Notably, southern Côte d'Ivoire and southern Ghana are expected to see limited rainfall next week, further straining water resources and growing conditions.

However, concerns about weak cocoa demand have put a damper on the commodity’s price gains. Major global chocolate makers Lindt & Sprüngli AG and Barry Callebaut AG have cut their profit margin forecasts for this year after chocolate sales in the first half of the year fell more than expected.

In particular, Barry Callebaut AG forecasts a decline in full-year sales, with a decline of up to 9.5% in the March–May quarter, the largest quarterly decline in a decade. This development reflects the consumption pressure on the chocolate industry in the context of declining global demand.

Source: https://baolangson.vn/nang-luong-dan-dat-mxv-index-tiep-tuc-duy-tri-da-tang-5058511.html