Many "big names" are about to go public.

Waiting for new stock

On January 17th, approximately 3.1 billion BSR shares of Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical Joint Stock Company will officially begin trading on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HOSE).

The Vietnamese stock market will have many growth opportunities in 2025.

With a reference price of VND 21,300 per share on its first trading day, Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical Company (BSR) is valued at over VND 66,000 billion, equivalent to more than USD 2.6 billion. Managing and operating the Dung Quat Refinery, a key national project with a total investment of over USD 3 billion and a processing capacity of 6.5 million tons of crude oil per year (accounting for approximately 30% of Vietnam's energy needs), BSR's listing on the HOSE still attracts significant attention from investors and is considered to further energize the stock market in general and HOSE in particular. According to investors and financial experts, HOSE offers higher listing conditions and standards, helping the company enhance transparency, brand image, access to capital, and attract more strategic investors.

Similarly, the announcement by the leadership of Masan Consumer Corporation (MCH) regarding the transfer of its shares from UPCoM to HOSE in 2025 is also important news for investors. As a key company of the Masan Group, MCH shares have recently seen a continuous surge, exceeding 130,000 VND, bringing Masan Consumer's market capitalization to over 168,000 billion VND, equivalent to more than 6.5 billion USD. According to a report by HSBC, Masan Consumer has high profit margins, stable revenue growth, and significantly outperforms its peers in the FMCG and packaged food sectors in the region.

From 2017 to 2023, Masan Consumer grew at a rate 2.2 times faster than the overall market. Similar to BSR, although MCH shares are not unfamiliar to investors, their move to the HOSE will create a new dynamic for the company's shareholders in particular and the market in general.

Notably, after a lackluster year with no initial public offerings (IPOs) to list on the stock exchange, many companies have planned to do so this year. One example is Vinpearl, a major player in the Vingroup conglomerate, which will offer over 70 million shares in the first quarter of 2025. With an offering price of 71,350 VND per share, Vinpearl estimates it will raise approximately 5,000 billion VND, and its charter capital is expected to increase to nearly 18,000 billion VND.

This major resort real estate developer has also completed numerous mergers and acquisitions recently. Many investors believe the attractiveness of Vinpearl shares is further enhanced by the plan to list shares on the stock exchange after the IPO, which was hinted at at the parent company Vingroup's shareholders' meeting. In addition, many other businesses are also preparing for IPOs, such as the two major retailers, Mobile World and FPT Retail, which have not hidden their ambitions to IPO their flagship companies, Bach Hoa Xanh and Long Chau, in the future…

New opportunities for the stock market.

The large number of new stocks about to be listed, and the forecast that this number will continue to increase in the future, is good news for the stock market in general. According to Mr. Nguyen Hoang Hai, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Association of Financial Investors, the stock market always needs new stocks, especially shares of larger companies, which attract more attention from domestic and foreign investors. In reality, in recent years, the number of large-scale companies listed on the stock exchange has been too small.

There will be more new listings on the stock market in 2025.

Photo: Dao Ngoc Thach

Therefore, even though BSR shares of Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical Joint Stock Company or MSN shares of Masan Consumer were already traded on UPCoM, their transfer to HOSE will create a positive and exciting market reaction. This is because when shares are listed on HOSE, they will attract more attention from large investors and foreign investment funds compared to the UPCoM market. Furthermore, initial public offerings (IPOs) and listings like those of Vinpearl and other companies will also inject new life into the stock market in general. Therefore, according to Mr. Hai, in addition to IPOs of private companies, the state needs to continue promoting the divestment process in many large enterprises. For example, MobiFone previously had a plan to sell state capital and conduct an IPO, but then stopped and it is unknown when it will restart. Similarly, the continued reduction of state capital in companies already listed on the stock exchange, such as FPT and Binh Minh Plastics, has not been implemented despite announcements made last year.

"Although the stock market experienced periods of stagnation last year, if the state truly divests a large percentage of its stake and invites strategic investors to participate, it will be successful, like the divestment deals for Sabeco and Vinaconex… Successful divestment not only helps the state obtain a high price, but also provides businesses with better business opportunities with the addition of new investors. The state must divest a high percentage of its stake to be able to participate in corporate governance in order to attract strategic investors. If only a small portion is sold, with a low ownership percentage, it will not be attractive enough to entice large investors," Mr. Nguyen Hoang Hai noted.

Sharing the same view, Mr. Phan Dung Khanh, Director of Investment Consulting at Maybank Investment Bank, also believes that when companies conduct IPOs, their shares will be listed on the stock exchange, attracting many shareholders to open securities accounts for trading. This represents a new group of investors in the stock market, thereby contributing to increased market liquidity.

Besides the "newcomers," the determination to achieve the 2025 goal of upgrading the Vietnamese stock market from a frontier market to an emerging market is also optimistic news for the market this year. In fact, the upgrading of the Vietnamese stock market has been mentioned by the Government since last year, and many policies have been implemented to promote and remove bottlenecks to achieve this goal. Therefore, the possibility of the Vietnamese stock market being upgraded according to the target is high, and this would be a real step forward for the market. "If upgraded, foreign capital inflows into the market will increase. But for the market to rise higher, more stocks of companies in the technology sector are needed; traditional industries that apply technology and adapt well to the trends of the digital transformation era, digital technology, and artificial intelligence. Because domestic and foreign investors are still very interested in this group of stocks," Mr. Khanh analyzed.

Benefit from economic growth

2025 is considered a time for "acceleration and breakthrough" to achieve the goals for the entire 2020-2025 term. Therefore, the Government aims for a high economic growth rate of 8-10%, higher than the target set by the National Assembly (6.5-7%), to create momentum for double-digit growth in the next period. Along with GDP, the Government also anticipates an average increase of approximately 4.5% in the consumer price index (CPI), credit growth of over 15%, state budget revenue at least 10% higher than in 2024, and thorough savings in expenditure, especially recurrent expenditure…

Financial expert Nguyen Tri Hieu believes that the GDP growth target of 8-10% is quite high, but with the government's determination and the combined efforts of all economic sectors, it is still achievable. Along with controlling inflation, accelerating exports, industry, services, and attracting foreign direct investment (FDI), the economy will certainly grow. This is also a key factor driving the stock market upward. More specifically, to boost economic growth, the credit growth target this year is higher than that of 2024, at around 16%. This means that the revenue and profits of the banking sector will increase. On the stock market, banking and financial stocks account for a large proportion, so they are sure to be very active.

Similarly, infrastructure and transportation projects are being accelerated, which will help businesses in this sector and the construction materials industry to develop. Simultaneously, Vietnam is strongly implementing digital transformation and developing high technology, giving technology and service companies the opportunity to accelerate their growth… "To achieve high economic growth targets, the Government must decisively promote the disbursement of public investment from the beginning of the year, bringing capital from banks into the economy."

At the same time, there are detailed scenarios to respond to new policy changes from other countries, especially the US, when the new President Donald Trump takes office. For the stock market, the macroeconomic foundation is the most important because it is the basis for businesses to develop. With the determination to boost economic growth this year, the Vietnamese stock market has many conditions to develop more strongly. In addition, if the US continues to lower interest rates as previously estimated, foreign investment flows into Vietnam will increase, both direct and indirect, helping domestic businesses to increase investment through the stock market," expert Nguyen Tri Hieu further shared.

According to Mr. Phan Dung Khanh, Vietnam has undergone many new changes as the highest leaders of the Party and Government have emphasized the need to immediately eliminate the "if you can't manage it, ban it" mentality and promote high technology, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence. This is coupled with major plans such as building a regional and international financial center in Vietnam with superior mechanisms and policies to encourage and facilitate the attraction of capital, technology, and modern management methods, promoting infrastructure development and creating a civilized, high-quality living environment in the financial center... In particular, the application of a controlled testing policy (sandbox) for business models applying technology in the financial sector (fintech), including exchanges for crypto assets and cryptocurrencies, shows that Vietnam has become more "open." This also forms the basis for breakthrough economic growth.

However, Mr. Phan Dung Khanh emphasized that investment capital flowing into technology companies increased sharply in 2024 and this trend is expected to continue. Meanwhile, the number of technology stocks on the Vietnamese stock market is still quite small. Companies in this sector are still relatively new, mainly...

Start-ups are essential. Therefore, a more open policy is needed to encourage startup activities, followed by fundraising, IPOs, and listing. Without more liberal policies, there will be a complete absence of new technology companies in blockchain and artificial intelligence entering the Vietnamese stock market. If only businesses operating in traditional sectors remain, the stock market will struggle to achieve the breakthrough growth desired.

VN-INDEX chart

GRAPHICS: BAO NGUYEN

Many business sectors are experiencing more favorable conditions.

The government has set a target of boosting economic growth in the new year. This will give many businesses the opportunity to expand their operations. Besides exports, which have recovered strongly in the past year and continue to increase as the global economy grows, sectors such as information technology and finance and banking also have more opportunities. Even many real estate, cement, and steel companies that suffered losses recently have now overcome their most difficult period and are able to survive or return to profitability. The more the economy develops, the more the stock market will rise. The construction of financial centers will also contribute to a stronger stock market.

Mr. Nguyen Hoang Hai (Vice President of the Vietnam Association of Financial Investors)

Several factors contributed to the stock market's acceleration.

The government has set a GDP growth target of 8-10% for 2025; investment and exports in Vietnam are projected to continue increasing this year; foreign direct investment (FDI) continues to flow into Vietnam, and the determination to upgrade the stock market from a frontier market to an emerging market is also a driving force attracting more foreign capital. In particular, higher-than-usual credit growth is also helping the stock market thrive as businesses have more access to capital. As the Vietnamese economy continues to grow strongly, the production and business activities of enterprises develop vigorously, and estimated profits increase, so will stock prices. Investment capital is also focusing more on production activities and the stock market instead of just saving or buying gold as before. Clearly, the stock market will be a growth channel with great potential in the new year.

Associate Professor Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh (Academy of Finance)

Source: https://thanhnien.vn/nhieu-hang-khung-sap-len-san-185250110233341597.htm