Strive for GDP growth in 2026 to reach 10% or more

On July 16, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh concluded the Government's online conference with localities on the economic growth scenario for 2025 and tasks and solutions to achieve the 2025 growth target.

Online conference between the Government and localities on economic growth scenarios for 2025. Photo: VIET CHUNG

At the conference, Minister of Finance Nguyen Van Thang said that the ministry has consulted on developing two economic growth scenarios for 2025.

Accordingly, scenario 1 determines that the growth rate for the whole year of 2025 will reach 8%. Specifically, the growth rate in the third quarter will reach 8.3% compared to the same period last year, and in the fourth quarter it will reach 8.5% (0.1% higher than the scenario). The GDP scale for the whole year will be over 508 billion USD, with GDP per capita reaching over 5,000 USD.

With scenario 2 (full-year growth of 8.3-8.5% in 2025), the ministry estimates growth in the third quarter to reach 8.9-9.2% over the same period (0.6-0.9% higher than the scenario); in the fourth quarter to reach 9.1-9.5% (0.7-1.1% higher than the scenario). GDP scale in 2025 is over 510 billion USD, GDP per capita is about over 5,020 USD.

The Ministry of Finance recommends that the Government and the Prime Minister direct and manage ministries, branches and localities to strive to implement scenario 2 (8.3-8.5%), creating momentum for growth in 2026 to reach 10% or more.

Corresponding to the above two scenarios, the Ministry of Finance has projected growth scenarios for localities, corporations, general corporations, and state-owned enterprises. Accordingly, localities need to achieve a growth rate in 2025 higher than the target in Resolution No. 25/NQ-CP, especially the leading localities, the growth drivers of the whole country, such as Hanoi increasing by 8.5% (0.5% higher), Ho Chi Minh City 8.5% (0.4% higher), Quang Ninh 12.5% (1% higher), Thai Nguyen 8% (0.5% higher)... Corporations, general corporations, and state-owned enterprises need to grow about 0.5% higher than the target at the beginning of the year.

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh delivered the concluding remarks at the Government's online conference with localities on the economic growth scenario for 2025. Photo: VIET CHUNG

To achieve a growth rate of 8.3-8.5% in 2025, the Ministry of Finance said it is necessary to mobilize about 111 billion USD in social investment capital in the last 6 months of the year, about 3 billion USD higher than the scenario of the country's economic growth reaching 8%.

Of which, public investment disbursement in the last 6 months of the year reached about 28 billion USD (equivalent to about 700,000 billion VND). Ministries, branches and localities must disburse 100% of the capital plan for 2025 and the additional capital allocated in 2025 from increased revenue sources and state budget savings in 2024 (about 152,700 billion VND). Private investment is about 60 billion USD, about 3 billion USD higher than the scenario of 8% national economic growth; FDI attraction is 18.5 billion USD, realized FDI capital is about 16 billion USD; other investment is about 7 billion USD. The State Bank proactively adjusts the credit growth target for 2025 (about 16%) if necessary, ensuring credit capital for priority sectors, fields and projects; Direct the effective implementation of the 500,000 billion VND loan packages for businesses to invest in infrastructure and digital technology, the credit package for young people under 35 years old to buy social housing...

In his concluding remarks, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh requested the Ministry of Finance and the Government Office to promptly synthesize and absorb comments and contributions to promptly complete and submit to the Government a resolution to adjust and assign growth targets for the third quarter, fourth quarter and the last 6 months of the year for the whole country, each locality, industry and sector.

The Prime Minister stated the main goals including: stabilizing the macro economy, controlling inflation at around 4.5%, GDP growth of the whole country in 2025 reaching 8.3-8.5% and in 2026 reaching 10% or more, ensuring major balances of the economy. Total social investment in 2025 is about 2.8 million billion VND, of which public investment is about 1 million billion VND and other sources are about 1.8 million billion VND. Along with that, well controlling public debt, government debt, foreign debt, budget deficit; improving the material and spiritual life of the people.

The Prime Minister emphasized that this is a very difficult goal and has many great challenges, but we cannot help but do it and this goal is not an impossible goal. If we cannot achieve this goal this year, it will affect the growth target for the coming years and the two 100-year goals that have been set.

Specifying 16 key tasks and solutions, the Prime Minister requested to continue implementing proactive, flexible, timely and effective monetary policies; the State Bank directed to stabilize exchange rates, strive to continue reducing interest rates, support production, business and people's livelihoods, control credit flows into growth drivers of the economy, digital economy, green economy, circular economy and social housing.

Along with that, continue to implement a reasonable and effective expansionary fiscal policy, promote 100% public investment disbursement (about 1 million billion VND); ensure total social investment increases by about 11-12% compared to 2024...

The Prime Minister requested to implement 3 strategic breakthroughs; promote new growth drivers, continue to implement well the 4 resolutions of the "four pillars"... Regarding agriculture, the Prime Minister noted ensuring food security, expanding exports to markets such as China, the Middle East, Africa, South America... Regarding culture and tourism, the Prime Minister requested to promote the development of cultural industry, entertainment industry; have appropriate visa policies along with promoting tourism promotion to achieve the target of 25 million visitors in 2025.

The Prime Minister requested to promote decentralization and delegation of power along with resource allocation, improve enforcement capacity and strengthen inspection and supervision; cut administrative procedures, reduce inconvenience, costs and compliance time for people and businesses.

State corporations and groups must strive for high growth, higher than the national average, reaching around 10% this year, on the basis of effective use of resources.

Localities should further promote the spirit of initiative and creativity, not waiting or relying on others in the spirit of promoting decentralization and delegation of power and according to assigned functions, tasks and powers.

According to sggp.org.vn

Source: https://baoapbac.vn/kinh-te/202507/phan-dau-tang-truong-gdp-nam-2026-dat-10-tro-len-1046883/