Super typhoon RAGASA will move into the East Sea, possibly affecting the mainland on September 25.

In the next 24-72 hours, storm RAGASA is likely to continue to strengthen and move in a West-Northwest direction. At 1:00 p.m. on September 22, the storm center was about 120 km north of Luzon Island, with intensity of level 16-17, gusting above level 17.

By 1 p.m. on September 23, the storm will enter the East Sea, becoming a very strong storm in the North East Sea area, maintaining a level 16-17 intensity, gusting above level 17.

By 1 p.m. on September 24, the storm's center is expected to be over the sea of Guangdong province (China), with an intensity of about level 15, gusting over level 17. After that, the storm is likely to turn West Southwest and enter the Gulf of Tonkin between the night and morning of September 25.

According to Dr. Hoang Phuc Lam, Deputy Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, around the evening of September 22, super typhoon RAGASA will move into the East Sea and become the 9th typhoon in the East Sea. After that, the typhoon will move quickly, about 20km/h, the maximum intensity of the typhoon can reach level 16-17, gusting above level 17 on September 22-23 while still in the East Sea, this is a strong intensity equivalent to the strongest intensity of typhoon No. 3 (YAGI) in 2024. On September 24, the typhoon is likely to weaken, by early morning on September 25 the typhoon will pass the Leizhou peninsula (China) and move into the Gulf of Tonkin with a strong intensity of level 12-14, gusting to level 15-16. It is forecasted that on September 25 the typhoon will move into the mainland of our country (focusing on the area from Quang Ninh - Ha Tinh ).

Referring to the impact of the storm, Dr. Hoang Phuc Lam said that in the past 2-3 days, most models and international and Vietnamese storm forecasting centers have simulated this as a storm with a very wide circulation, very strong intensity when operating in the East Sea, reaching super typhoon level, strongest in the period of September 22-23. In particular, the maximum intensity of storm No. 9 is forecasted by the Japanese meteorological agency to reach 195 km/h (level 16), gusts over 17, the Chinese meteorological agency forecasts it can reach 223 km/h (above level 17), gusts over 17, the Hong Kong (China) meteorological agency forecasts 240 km/h (above level 17), gusts over 17; the Philippine meteorological agency has raised the impact warning level to level 3, the highest level for the impact of the storm in the Philippines.

Dr. Hoang Phuc Lam noted that there will be two scenarios for this storm.

Scenario 1: On September 24, when moving to the sea area south of Guangdong province (China), due to the storm's northern circulation being affected by terrain friction, storm No. 9 is forecast to weaken and when entering the Gulf of Tonkin, the storm's intensity will decrease by 2-4 levels compared to when it was still offshore.

Scenario 2: When entering the East Sea, the storm will move mainly in the West direction, the lower the storm trajectory, the less the storm intensity will be reduced, the impact of strong winds and big waves in the Gulf of Tonkin will be higher, with this scenario, in the Northern coast, the Central coastal area ( Thanh Hoa - Hue) will have very strong storm winds, accompanied by heavy rain.

Along with that, the North also has an early-season cold air mass moving towards our country. The interaction of cold air with storms in the coming days will make the trajectory and intensity of storm RAGASA more complicated and long-term forecasts (after 3 days) currently have a large dispersion.

"The above two scenarios only deviate from the North or South by 50-100km (only equal to the average error of the past 5 years in forecasting storm trajectories 12 hours in advance), but the intensity of the storm when approaching the coast of Vietnam will be very different, the consequences will also be very different, so it is necessary to continue updating forecasts according to monitoring data and subsequent analysis," Mr. Hoang Phuc Lam emphasized.

Deputy Director Hoang Phuc Lam warned: Due to the influence of the storm circulation in the northern area of the East Sea (including Hoang Sa special zone), from September 23, strong winds will be level 8-9, then increase to level 10-14, the area near the storm center will be level 15-17, gusting above level 17, waves over 10m high; the sea will be rough, can sink all ships, including large tonnage ships.

The Gulf of Tonkin (including the special zones of Con Co, Bach Long Vi, and Co To) from September 24 will have strong storm winds of level 8, near the storm center of level 11-13, gusting to level 15-16, very rough seas with thunderstorms, whirlwinds, and heavy rain.

Around the morning of September 25, coastal waters from Quang Ninh to Ha Tinh will have strong winds of level 7-8, then gradually increasing to level 9-10, near the storm center will have winds of level 12-14, gusts of level 15-16, waves of 4-7m high. Boat mooring areas and aquaculture cages are at risk of being greatly affected by strong winds and big waves, especially in the area from Quang Ninh to Ha Tinh.

When the storm is still 300-400km from the mainland, beach areas from Quang Ninh to Hue City and Da Nang need to pay attention to thunderstorms due to the impact of circulation in the front part of the storm.

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/van-de-quan-tam/sieu-bao-ragasa-se-di-chuyen-vao-bien-dong-kha-nang-anh-huong-toi-dat-lien-ngay-259-20250921193736004.htm