Minister of Finance Nguyen Van Thang speaks at the conference - Photo: VGP/Nhat Bac
Two growth scenarios for 2025 are expected to be suitable for the situation.
At the online conference between the Government and localities to give opinions on the 2025 economic growth scenario and tasks and solutions to achieve the 2025 growth target, on the morning of July 16, Minister of Finance Nguyen Van Thang said that the Ministry has consulted on developing 2 scenarios.
Accordingly, Scenario 1 determines that the growth rate for the whole year of 2025 will reach 8% . Specifically, if the growth rate in the third quarter reaches 8.3% over the same period, equivalent to the scenario in Resolution 154/NQ-CP; the fourth quarter reaches 8.5% (0.1% higher than the scenario). The GDP scale for the whole year is about 508 billion USD, GDP per capita is about 5,000 USD.
Growth drivers for the last 6 months of the year include: Total social investment capital in the last 6 months of the year is about 108 billion USD; total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue (current prices) increase by about 12% or more; total import-export turnover of goods in 2025 increases by 16% or more. The average consumer price index (CPI) is about 4.5-5%.
With Scenario 2 (full-year growth of 8.3-8.5% in 2025), the Ministry estimates that if growth in the third quarter reaches 8.9-9.2% over the same period (0.6-0.9% higher than the scenario) and the fourth quarter reaches 9.1-9.5% (0.7-1.1% higher than the scenario), the GDP scale in 2025 will be around 510 billion USD, GDP per capita will be around 5,020 USD.
Growth drivers for the last 6 months of the year include: Total social investment capital in the last 6 months of the year is about 111 billion USD; total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue (current prices) increase by about 13% or more; total import-export turnover in 2025 increases by 17% or more. The average consumer price index (CPI) is about 4.5-5%.
According to the Ministry of Finance, along with exploiting market opportunities to promote consumption and export, investment continues to be identified as the main driving force, with much room and potential to further promote, helping the economy achieve a higher growth rate in the second half of 2025, while forming and developing new production capacity and new space, creating the premise for growth in 2026 to reach 10% or more.
Corresponding to the above two scenarios, Minister Nguyen Van Thang said that the Ministry of Finance has forecasted growth scenarios for localities, corporations, general companies, and state-owned enterprises.
"Growth scenarios depend on the effectiveness of implementing policies and solutions, especially in mobilizing and using resources for growth," said the Minister.
The Minister emphasized that the Central Government and the National Assembly have decided on a growth target of 8% or more in 2025. However, with the highest determination, greater efforts, overcoming all difficulties and challenges to achieve a higher growth target than the set target, creating a premise for growth in 2026 and the following years of the Government and the Prime Minister, the Ministry of Finance therefore recommends that the Government and the Prime Minister direct and operate ministries, branches and localities to strive to implement Scenario 2 (8.3-8.5%), creating momentum for growth in 2026 to reach 10% or more.
To achieve the set target, the Ministry of Finance believes that localities need to achieve a growth rate in 2025 higher than the target in Resolution No. 25/NQ-CP, especially the leading localities, the growth drivers of the whole country such as: Hanoi increased by 8.5% (0.5% higher), Ho Chi Minh City 8.5% (0.4% higher), Quang Ninh 12.5% (1% higher), Thai Nguyen 8% (0.5% higher)...; corporations, general companies, state-owned enterprises need to grow about 0.5% higher than the target at the beginning of the year.
Regarding the 2026 growth scenario, the Minister said the Ministry recommends continuing to review growth targets and targets for sectors, fields and localities, ensuring that the country's economic growth in 2026 reaches 10% or more.
Regarding solutions for growth scenarios, according to the Ministry of Finance, ministries, branches and localities need to continue to fully and effectively implement the Resolutions and Conclusions of the Central Committee, the Politburo, the Secretariat, key leaders, the National Assembly, Resolution No. 192/2025/QH15 of the National Assembly, Resolution No. 154/NQ-CP, No. 205/NQ-CP and Resolutions of regular monthly Government meetings... to achieve the growth target of 8.3-8.5% in 2025 and 10% or more in 2026.
At the same time, in promoting investment, it is necessary to mobilize investment capital for the whole society in the last 6 months of the year of about 111 billion USD, about 3 billion USD higher than the scenario of the national economic growth reaching 8%. Of which, the disbursement of public investment capital in the last 6 months of the year reached about 28 billion USD (equivalent to about 700 trillion VND). Ministries, branches and localities must disburse 100% of the capital plan for 2025 and the additional capital allocated in 2025 from the source of increased revenue and savings in state budget expenditure in 2024 (about 152.7 trillion VND).
Private investment is about 60 billion USD, about 3 billion USD higher than the scenario of 8% national economic growth; FDI attraction reaches 18.5 billion USD, realized FDI capital is about 16 billion USD; other investment is about 7 billion USD.
On promoting private investment, state-owned enterprises, It is necessary to continue to effectively implement Resolution No. 68-NQ/TW of the Politburo, Resolution No. 198/2025/QH15 of the National Assembly on a number of special mechanisms and policies for private economic development and the Government's action programs.
In this task, the State Bank proactively adjusts the credit growth target for 2025 (about 16%) if necessary, ensuring credit capital for priority industries, fields and projects; effectively directing the implementation of the VND500 trillion loan packages for businesses investing in infrastructure and digital technology, the credit package for young people under 35 years old to buy social housing, etc.
Regarding FDI attraction, the Ministry of Finance, ministries, agencies and localities promote investment, support and quickly resolve investment procedures, especially large projects...
Regarding public investment disbursement, ministries, branches and localities develop plans and monthly capital disbursement targets for each investor; promptly resolve arising problems of each project. Strive for the public investment disbursement rate to reach 60% of the plan assigned by the Prime Minister by the end of the third quarter, and 100% of the plan by 2025.
The Minister of Finance also emphasized the need to promote consumption, effectively exploit the domestic market; strengthen export, develop harmonious trade with other countries, create new growth drivers...
Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Phan Thi Thang - Photo: VGP/Nhat Bac
5 key solutions of the Industry and Trade sector
Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Phan Thi Thang said that from the beginning of 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has proactively developed a growth scenario for the industry corresponding to double-digit economic growth in 2025 under the direction of the Prime Minister in Official Dispatch No. 140/CD-TTg of the Prime Minister dated December 27, 2024.
In Resolution No. 25/NQ-CP dated February 5, 2025 of the Government on the growth target of industries, sectors and localities to ensure the national growth target in 2025 reaches 8% or more, the Industry and Trade sector is assigned by the Government the growth targets in 2025 such as: Industrial production index (IIP) increases by 9.5%; Electricity production and import increases by 12.5%; Total value of goods and services and consumer service revenue increases by 12%, Export turnover increases by 12%...
Thus, the targets on export, trade balance and total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue assigned by the Ministry of Industry and Trade in Resolution No. 25/NQ-CP all correspond to the double-digit growth scenario.
To implement Resolution 25/NQ-CP, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has developed growth scenarios for the industry by month/quarter and sent them to the Ministry of Finance (formerly the Ministry of Planning and Investment) for synthesis.
Based on the results of the first 6 months of 2025, Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Phan Thi Thang said that 2/6 targets of the industry exceeded the set scenario; 2/6 targets did not meet expectations but basically approached the scenario (reaching nearly 90%); 1 target is only evaluated at the end of the year (target on trade surplus, because this target is related to trade surplus, not a relative number like other targets but an absolute number, each month the trade surplus/deficit will be added/subtracted cumulatively); 1 target (on electricity) although not close to the plan, this is a growth target according to load demand and still ensures sufficient electricity supply for production and consumption of residents.
According to Deputy Minister Phan Thi Thang, the main reason for not achieving the targets on IIP and domestic market compared to the plan for the first 6 months of 2025 is because these targets were set quite high (corresponding to the scenario of double-digit economic growth in 2025).
Faced with that situation, on behalf of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Deputy Minister Phan Thi Thang proposed key tasks and solutions for the last 6 months of the year to complete the growth target for the whole year 2025.
Firstly, continue to improve institutions to unlock resources. The Ministry of Industry and Trade will speed up the development and completion of guiding documents for implementation. The Laws passed by the National Assembly at the 9th session (Amended Law on Chemicals; Amended Law on Energy Conservation) and the draft Law on E-Commerce will be urgently completed to submit to the National Assembly at the next session.
Second, promote the development of industrial production and energy by focusing on removing obstacles for projects in the industrial and energy sectors, promoting the development of equipment manufacturing industry serving the renewable energy sector, and localizing the railway industry to serve national railway projects.
Effectively implement the adjusted Power Plan 8; focus on removing difficulties, strive to put important power source and grid projects into operation soon in 2025 to ensure sufficient power supply for production and daily life. In the long term, it is necessary to continue to perfect the legal framework for industrial development on the basis of closely following the policies in the 4 Resolutions, which are the "four pillars" of the Politburo.
Promote the development of supporting industries, increase the localization rate. Encourage technological innovation, digital transformation and green production to improve productivity and product added value through expanding digital transformation consulting support programs for small and medium-sized manufacturing and processing enterprises.
Promote green and energy-saving production, continue to improve the legal framework and guidelines for implementing the revised Law on Energy Efficiency and Conservation, set specific targets for reducing energy consumption per unit of product. Encourage businesses to invest in emission reduction and waste recycling technologies.
Third, stabilize and develop the domestic market. Focus on supporting businesses to convert to digital platforms; coordinate with functional units to propagate and guide business households in converting business methods and paying taxes to soon stabilize the distribution of goods to consumers.
Regularly monitor market developments, supply and demand, and commodity prices, especially essential goods, to promptly take measures or report to competent authorities to coordinate in handling unstable market fluctuations.
Fourth, promote the development of e-commerce and the digital economy. The Ministry of Industry and Trade will promptly complete the procedures for drafting the Law on E-commerce, coordinate with the drafting agency, research and comment on the projects of the Law on Advertising, the Law on Goods and Product Quality to strengthen the management of advertising activities and the management of goods and product quality in cyberspace. At the same time, it will promote the management of e-commerce activities.
Fifth, strengthen import-export activities. Continue to negotiate a reciprocal, fair and balanced trade agreement with the United States, thereby maintaining the competitiveness of Vietnamese export goods in this large market. Proactively research, advise on negotiations, and sign cooperation agreements with new markets; focus on exploiting and making the most of opportunities from key and strategic markets; Promote FTA negotiations, implement the Prime Minister's direction on signing MoUs and rice trade agreements with Brazil, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, etc. Increase funding for trade promotion, support businesses in reducing transportation costs, input costs, and simplifying administrative procedures;
Strengthen early warning of risks and accompany businesses when trade defense lawsuits arise; support businesses to overcome new trade barriers in import markets. Enhance the capacity of small and medium enterprises in branding, marketing, and international trade promotion skills.
Giang Oanh - Phuong Lien
Source: https://baochinhphu.vn/tai-chinh-cong-thuong-chuan-bi-cac-kich-ban-hoan-thanh-chi-tieu-tang-truong-nam-10225071609503719.htm
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