The Importance of Pennsylvania in the US Presidential Election

Last weekend, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and Democratic rival Kamala Harris held parallel campaign events in Pennsylvania, which is considered the most important battleground state in the presidential election taking place this November.

Pennsylvania, along with Wisconsin and Michigan, form the Rust Belt (three states that deindustrialized in the mid-20th century, shifting their economies to focus on services and high-tech manufacturing) that brought victory to former President Donald Trump in the 2016 White House race. In the 2020 race, President Joe Biden - who grew up in Scranton, Pennsylvania - succeeded in bringing these states back to the Democratic Party.

Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Butler County, Pennsylvania.

Statistics show that since 2008, the candidates who voted for these three states have ultimately won the race for the White House. Winning the support of Pennsylvania voters could be the "biggest prize" in the November election, as the state contributes 19 electoral votes (out of the 270 needed to win) while Michigan and Wisconsin have 15 and 10 electoral votes, respectively. According to a statistical model created by election forecaster Nate Silver, Pennsylvania is more than twice as likely to be the deciding state compared to all other states, with its electoral votes having the "power" to push one of the two candidates to the top. Therefore, the campaigns of both candidates currently put Pennsylvania as a top priority. In addition to organizing live events, they also do not hesitate to spend money on advertising in the media. The evidence is that political ads from both sides dominate the news broadcasts in this state. According to data cited by the Wall Street Journal on the AdImpact tracking site on August 16, since President Joe Biden withdrew from the race at the end of July, election campaigns have spent $110 million on advertising in seven key states, including $42 million on advertising in Pennsylvania alone, more than double the remaining states. AdImpact believes that the statistics will increase in the coming time. On August 17 (local time), Mr. Donald Trump held a campaign event in Wilkes-Barre in northeastern Pennsylvania. In a speech lasting more than 100 minutes, the former US President repeatedly turned to personal attacks. Despite recent polls showing Kamala Harris ahead, he is confident that his opponent "will be easier to beat" than President Joe Biden. He also reiterated Kamala Harris's previous call for a ban on shale gas drilling - an important industry in the state. However, the Vice President's recent campaign has shown that she will not support such a ban. In addition, he has criticized the current administration for allowing prices to rise, saying that Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden need to do more to deal with inflation, and attacked Kamala Harris for personal reasons. However, some political analysts say such comments could hurt former President Donald Trump himself. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, are scheduled to make several stops in Allegheny and Beaver counties on August 18 (local time). This trip is the first time Kamala Harris and Tim Walz and their spouses have campaigned together since the first event the pair held together in Philadelphia earlier this month. Pennsylvania is a key part of President Joe Biden's strategy to win the 2020 race. Kamala Harris and her team are also believed to be pursuing a similar "win big, lose small" strategy, aiming to "win big" in the cities and suburbs of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh; At the same time, limit losses in smaller counties like Beaver County, where Donald Trump won 58% of the vote in 2020. In a related development, Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign team announced on August 17 (local time) that it will spend at least $370 million on her image promotion campaign in battleground states. This campaign will be carried out from September 3 to Election Day. Of that total amount, about $200 million will be used to help her reach voters through electronic devices such as phones or computers. The remaining amount will be spent on massive television promotions. The content of the promotion campaign will focus on her personal story of fighting for the interests of the people, the needs of the American people and the contrast between her agenda and the policies of her opponent Donald Trump. Kamala Harris is scheduled to deliver her official acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago from August 19-22. Harris and her rival Donald Trump will then have their first debate on September 10. Both candidates have visited Pennsylvania at least six times this year. Donald Trump was assassinated at a campaign event in Butler County, Pennsylvania, on July 13. He announced that he would return to Butler in October and promised to present his economic policy positions at a campaign event in York County and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on August 19. Trump's running mate, Senator JD Vance, will also deliver a speech in Philadelphia on the same day. Donald Trump's trip to Wilkes-Barre on August 17th, with Luzerne County as his destination, is aimed at bolstering support among white voters who helped propel him to victory in 2016. Prior to 2016, the county had voted Democratic for decades.

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Source: https://cand.com.vn/binh-luan-quoc-te/tam-quan-trong-cua-bang-pennsylvania-trong-cuoc-bau-cu-tong-thong-my-i740959/