The Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) said that after a brief recovery at the beginning of the week, the prices of the two commodities returned to a weakening trend yesterday. In addition, in the metal market, iron ore prices also broke the streak of 5 consecutive increases, fluctuating near the psychological mark of 100 USD/ton.
For the industrial raw material group, at the end of yesterday's trading session, the industrial raw material market witnessed overwhelming selling pressure on most key commodities in the group. In particular, the prices of two coffee commodities simultaneously weakened after the recovery session at the beginning of the week. Specifically, the price of coffee recorded a decrease of nearly 1.5% to 6,555 USD/ton while the price of Robusta coffee lost more than 3.1% to 3,408 USD/ton.
According to MXV, Brazil, Peru and Indonesia are entering the peak harvest period of the new crop in 2025–2026, which has led to abundant supply in the market and put pressure on prices. Meanwhile, the main harvest in Colombia, Central America, Mexico and Vietnam is expected to start seasonally in the fourth quarter of this year. According to initial estimates, the export volume of these countries may reach 28 million bags of Arabica coffee and 34 million bags of Robusta coffee.
In addition, according to the National Federation of Coffee Growers (FNC), Colombia's cumulative coffee exports in the first nine months of the current crop year reached nearly 9.92 million 60-kg bags, up 12.56% over the same period last year.
For the group of washed coffee producing countries – Mexico, Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and El Salvador – the new crop year is expected to start in two months. The overall production forecast for 2025–26 remains stable at an estimated 17.5 million bags, thanks to relatively favorable climatic conditions during the early growing period.
In Brazil, this year's harvest progress was updated by the Guaxupé Regional Coffee Farmers' Cooperative (Cooxupé) as of July 11, reaching 49.3% of the expected output, notably in regions such as: Southern Minas has completed 54.2%, Cerrado Mineiro is 38.7%, Matas de Minas is 60% and São Paulo is 53.2%.
Regarding the domestic coffee market, Vietnamese farmers are cautious in not selling aggressively at current prices, after the Robusta harvest in Brazil and Indonesia caused prices to drop sharply. Especially in Dak Lak and Dak Nong , rainfall is 30-45% lower than normal and the temperature has slightly decreased, although it has not exceeded the control threshold, if it continues, it can affect the development of coffee beans at the end of July. In Lam Dong, the weather is relatively stable, but there is a warning of an increased risk of pests and diseases if the drought continues in the coming time.
In the metal market, not outside the general market trend, the metal group in yesterday's trading session also continued to weaken in the context of the market continuously receiving unoptimistic information about the consumption situation. Notably, iron ore prices in yesterday's session ended a series of 5 consecutive increases, turning to weaken more than 0.6% to stop at 98.9 USD/ton.
The weakness of iron ore comes from data on production and consumption in China - the world's largest iron ore import market.
China's crude steel output fell to 83.18 million tonnes in June, down nearly 4% from May and more than 9% from a year earlier, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Meanwhile, China's finished steel exports in June were 9.7 million tonnes, down 8.5% from May, according to the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC). The data suggests that production cuts are starting to take place as Beijing has previously announced, amid weakening demand for steel products in the international market.
In addition, data from GACC also showed that China's iron ore imports in June reached 105.9 million tonnes, the highest level since the beginning of the year. However, according to metals market analysis unit SMM, the sharp increase in iron ore imports was mainly due to mining companies such as BHP and Rio Tinto boosting deliveries to meet second-quarter targets. The organization also forecasts that iron ore imports in July will decrease as many mines enter maintenance periods.
In addition, despite Beijing’s efforts to revive the property market, China’s home price index in June continued its two-year decline, falling 3.2% year-on-year, reinforcing concerns that steel demand from the construction sector will be difficult to recover in the short term.
On the macro front, China's GDP in the second quarter of 2025 grew 5.2% year-on-year, down slightly from 5.4% in the first quarter but still exceeding experts' forecasts of 5.1%. In that context, experts say Beijing needs to launch a fiscal stimulus package worth 1.5 trillion yuan, equivalent to more than 200 billion USD, combined with interest rate cuts to offset the impact of Washington's tariffs, thereby boosting spending in the economy .
In the Vietnamese market, import and export activities in June recorded mixed developments. According to preliminary data from the Vietnam Customs Department, imports of iron and steel of all kinds in June decreased sharply by 9.6% compared to May, down to about 1.2 million tons.
Source: https://baolamdong.vn/thi-truong-hang-hoa-16-7-gia-hang-hoa-nguyen-lieu-the-gioi-dong-loat-giam-382459.html
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