Commodity market April 29: Mixed developments

In the agricultural market, according to MXV, going against the general trend of the agricultural market, soybeans just experienced the first trading session of the week with a price recovery. Despite being under pressure to decrease prices right at the opening, soybean prices quickly recovered thanks to the push from the increase in soybean oil, while market sentiment stabilized again due to positive signals about tariff policies. At the end of the session, the price of soybean futures for July recorded an increase of more than 0.3% to 390 USD/ton.

According to the Export Inspections report of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), in the week ending April 24, the US exported 439,341 tons of soybeans, far exceeding the 276,092 tons in the same period last year. Accumulated from the beginning of the 2024-2025 crop year, the total soybean export volume reached 43.1 million tons, significantly higher than the 38.7 million tons in the same period last year. This development shows that US soybean exports are maintaining positive growth momentum, becoming an important supporting factor for prices in the last session.

On the trade front, tariff news continues to provide a stable foundation for market sentiment. Notably, China has just decided to exempt import tariffs on a number of US goods such as semiconductor chips and industrial components. In addition, the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) is also accelerating negotiations with major partners. These moves are considered by the market as a sign of goodwill, contributing to alleviating concerns about the risk of escalating trade tensions, thereby boosting buying power in the soybean market.

Weather continues to play a role in the short-term direction of the market. While heavy rains in Texas and Oklahoma may cause some temporary delays, the return of warmer, drier weather in the Midwest is expected to support planting progress. Soybean planting progress in the U.S. is forecast to reach 17% by the end of the week, up 9 percentage points from last week.

Meanwhile, soybean oil prices rose more than 1%, marking their highest close since December 2023. The recovery of Malaysian palm oil and expectations of a new biofuel support policy in the US continue to reinforce the positive outlook for the soybean oil market, thereby indirectly supporting soybean prices in the short term.

Regarding the industrial raw material group, at the end of yesterday's trading session, Arabica coffee prices on the New York floor continued to increase, recording an increase of 2.55% to 9,040 USD/ton. This is the fifth consecutive increase, of which four sessions increased by over 2%, bringing Arabica prices to the highest level in two and a half months. In contrast, Robusta coffee prices on the London floor remained almost unchanged, remaining stable at 5,413 USD/ton, reflecting the short-term market turmoil.

The recent strong recovery in Arabica coffee prices is not only due to the tight global supply, but also due to the instability of the financial market. Notably, the continuous weakening of the USD in recent times has caused the USD/BRL exchange rate to fall sharply, thereby supporting the increase of Arabica on the New York Stock Exchange, especially in the context of Brazil's position as the world's largest coffee producer and exporter, while the US is the world's largest consumer market.

On the other hand, Robusta coffee prices on the London Stock Exchange recorded a slight decrease due to the impact of several factors, notably the entry of the harvest season in Brazil and Indonesia. In addition to seasonal factors, the output of both countries is forecast to increase in the 2024-2025 crop year.

In addition, the first report on the 2025 crop year published by Conab in January also provided a picture of the supply situation in Brazil. Total coffee production in Brazil is estimated at 51.8 million bags (60 kg), down 4.4% from the previous season. Arabica coffee production is forecast at 34.7 million bags (60 kg) in the current season, down 12.4% from the previous season. Meanwhile, Conilon (Robusta) coffee production is estimated at 17.1 million bags (60 kg) in 2025, up 17.2% from the previous season.

In terms of exports, Brazil exported an average of about 7,620 tons of unroasted coffee per day during the first 19 working days of April, down 29% compared to the average in April 2024. For roasted coffee, extracts and related products, the average daily exports in the first 19 days of April were about 782 tons, down 16% compared to the same period last year.

In the first three months of this year, Brazil exported about 11.7 million 60-kg bags of coffee, down 1% compared to the same period last year. Although Brazil set an export record of 50.5 million bags in 2024, exports in the first months of 2025 have decreased due to limited domestic inventories.

On the other hand, cocoa prices on the New York Stock Exchange fell sharply by 4.79% at the end of the session on April 28. The main reason came from information about the increase in global cocoa supply, after Bloomberg reported that Nigeria's cocoa exports in March increased by 24% compared to the same period last year, reaching approximately 27,565 tons. Nigeria is currently the world's 5th largest cocoa producer.

Source: https://baodaknong.vn/thi-truong-hang-hoa-29-4-dien-bien-trai-chieu-250971.html