Latin America Economic Outlook 2025: Modest Growth

The latest report from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released on June 3 shows that Latin America's growth prospects in 2025 remain modest, although slightly improved compared to last year.

The OECD forecasts that growth in the seven largest economies in Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico and Peru) will average 2.1% this year, up slightly from 2.0% in 2024. Growth is forecast at 2.0% in 2026. Growth remains constrained by tight financial conditions, weakening global trade and uncertain domestic policies.

Brazil is expected to grow 2.1% in 2025, driven by household spending but facing slowing exports. Mexico is expected to slow to 0.4% growth, hurt by trade tensions with the US. Argentina rebounds strongly, growing 5.2% after a 2024 recession due to hyperinflation. Colombia, Chile, and Peru maintain growth rates of 2.4–3%.

Inflation remains a major challenge for countries in the region, although the trend is decreasing in Colombia and Mexico, many countries have not yet achieved their price control targets. In Argentina, the extremely high inflation rate (219.9% in 2024) is gradually cooling down thanks to fiscal tightening policies, expected to decrease to 36.6% in 2025. Next is Brazil with an expected inflation rate of 5.7%, Colombia 4.7%, Chile 4.5%, Mexico 3.4% in 2025.

The OECD warns that key risks include trade tensions, financial volatility, and climate-related disasters – particularly in the agricultural sector. In addition, slow productivity growth and poverty rates of more than 25% of the population continue to impede sustainable development.

Overall, Latin America faces a year of fragile recovery. Latin America’s economic future depends on its ability to control inflation, stabilize policies, and implement reforms to attract investment and boost productivity, key factors in catching up with more developed economies.

---

Source: Foreign Market Development Department

Source: https://moit.gov.vn/tin-tuc/thi-truong-nuoc-ngoai/trien-vong-kinh-te-my-latinh-nam-2025-tang-truong-khiem-ton.html