Youth rate drops sharply due to aging population

The proportion of young people in the population structure will decrease from 23% (22.6 million) in 2020 to 20.9% (20.7 million) by the end of 2022, with the youth workforce decreasing by 170,000 people each year.

In the report on youth employment in the 2020-2025 period, the Committee for Culture andEducation cited statistics showing that the sharp decrease in the number of young people has led to a decrease in the labor force from 12.55 million in 2020 to 10.6 million in 2022. The labor force in the age group (15-24) decreases by an average of 170,000 each year, about 2.1%.

The reason is rapid population aging. It took Vietnam 25 years to move from the population aging stage (the group aged 60 and over accounts for 10%) to the old population stage (the group aged 60 and over accounts for 20%), while developed countries took longer, even nearly a century.

Vietnam's birth rate has dropped sharply, leading to a risk of labor shortage. The average number of children of women of childbearing age in 2001 was 2.28, down to 2.1 in 2021. Women in Ho Chi Minh City currently have the lowest birth rate in the country, with an average of only 1.39 children. Family size is getting smaller, with 3-4 generation families becoming increasingly rare.

Hanoi youth celebrate Mid-Autumn Festival 2023 on Hang Ma Street. Photo: Tung Le — Hanoi youth celebrate Mid-Autumn Festival 2023 on Hang Ma Street. Photo: *Tung Le*

According to statistics, the rate of trained young workers increases slowly every year. The rate of those with certificates and degrees accounts for more than 26%, the rest are untrained. Highly skilled technical workers are very scarce while some fields with post-graduate, bachelor's and engineering degrees are more numerous than the demand. More than 73% of Vietnamese young workers work in the fields of industry, construction, agriculture, forestry and fisheries.

The Committee for Culture and Education assessed the above situation as "a worrying sign about the future generation of workers", becoming a major challenge for Vietnam in improving the quality of human resources when integrating into the world economy .

Forecasting that Vietnam will completely end its golden population period by 2038, the Committee for Culture and Education has proposed that relevant ministries and sectors study policies to improve the quality of young human resources in both training and job support; amending the Law on Social Insurance to limit the situation of withdrawing social insurance (SI) one time while still in working age.

Statistics for the period 2016-2021 show that over 80% of workers withdrawing social insurance at one time are between the ages of 20 and under 40. Meanwhile, social security coverage is increasing slowly, reaching only 38% of the working-age workforce.

Phuong Ha

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