Why did Ms. Harris lose to Mr. Trump in the 2024 US election?

Several experts have highlighted key obstacles that contributed to why US Vice President Kamala Harris lost to former President Donald Trump in the 2024 election.

The economic situation is not stable.

Democratic strategist James Carville explained Bill Clinton's victory in the 1992 US presidential election by saying: "It's the economy, it's easy!", according to AFP. Carville was a strategist in Clinton's successful 1992 US presidential election, when he defeated then-President George HW Bush.

Former US President Bill Clinton speaks in Columbus, Georgia (USA) on October 14 to support Democratic presidential candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris.

To keep the campaign on message, Mr. Carville hung a sign at Mr. Clinton’s campaign headquarters that read: “Change vs. Status Quo. It’s the Economy, Plain and Simple. Don’t Forget Health Care.” Although the sign was intended for an internal audience of campaign workers, the phrase “It’s the Economy, Plain and Simple” has arguably become the de facto slogan for Mr. Clinton’s campaign.

More than 30 years later, the phrase "it's just the economy, it's easy to understand" still holds true, with Vice President Harris failing to win the support of American voters due to soaring inflation during her tenure with President Joe Biden in the White House, according to AFP.

The Democrats' massive defeat follows similar losses for incumbent parties globally in the post-Covid-19 inflation wave.

How is the US economy different under the Trump-Biden presidency?

Although US economic data has steadily improved in recent months, polls continue to show widespread negative sentiment among voters, and on the campaign trail Mr Trump repeatedly criticised Ms Harris over rising food and gas prices.

"People still (see) inflation as a problem, because they don't think in terms of annual rates like economists do, but in terms of price levels. People can be upset when essential items take up a much larger share of their household budget," Bernard Yaros, an expert at Oxford Economics (UK), told AFP.

Wave of immigration

Like the 2016 election reversal, immigration is “clearly a factor” in Trump’s 2024 victory, according to Carl Tobias, a professor at the University of Richmond School of Law. This time, Trump has also promised a massive deportation campaign to deport millions of immigrants who have come to the US under a Biden-Harris administration.

Democratic presidential candidate, US Vice President Kamala Harris speaks to concede defeat in the 2024 US presidential election to President-elect Donald Trump, at Howard University in Washington DC on November 6.

Illegal border crossings have dropped sharply in recent months after Mr Biden issued a tough executive order, but this comes after record immigration levels over the past year that Mr Trump and Republicans have denounced as an “invasion”.

Ms Harris argued that Mr Trump used his influence with Republicans to kill a bipartisan border bill for political gain. Republicans, meanwhile, argued that the border bill was too little, too late. Ultimately, voters sided with Mr Trump, according to AFP.

What role do female voters play for candidate Harris in the US presidential election?

Demographic change

Primary exit polls show that Ms. Harris won about 40% of white voters, more than 80% of black voters and about 50% of Hispanic and Asian voters.

While polls show Mr. Trump not winning a majority of the vote among any non-white group, his support among African Americans has increased by single digits and by double digits among Hispanics, a deeply worrying trend for Democrats.

"We've certainly seen among Mexican-American men, evangelicals, non-college, working class...a steady movement toward Trump," commented professor Roberto Suro of the University of Southern California, Annenberg.

Such trends can also be seen “geographically along the border and in places that are very directly impacted by this new wave of migration,” Mr Suro added.

Contrary to expectations, Mr Trump did better than he did in 2020 with young people and women, even though abortion rights were a key campaign issue.

Late entry

Mr Biden, 82, raised concerns among many Democrats last year when he announced his decision to run for re-election. But no major challenger has chosen to challenge him for the party's nomination, and any mention of his mental or physical decline has been denied by the White House, according to AFP.

But Mr Biden’s perceived poor performance in the debate with Mr Trump on the evening of June 27 sparked a crisis as concerns about the incumbent president’s sanity flared, with intense party pressure eventually forcing Mr Biden to drop his bid for re-election.

Ms Harris was quickly recognized as the Democratic presidential candidate to compete with Mr Trump, but only has 3 months to reset the lagging election campaign.

"Much of this Democratic disaster can be blamed on Joe Biden. He should not have tried to run for re-election in his 80s, leaving Harris to manage a short-lived replacement campaign that has proven inadequate," said political scientist Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia.

The influence of Mr. Biden

Harris has struggled to differentiate herself from Biden and the president’s unpopularity, according to AFP. She found herself stuck on Oct. 8, when a host of ABC’s “The View” asked her what she would do differently from Biden. After a moment of hesitation, she said “nothing comes to mind.”

That exchange turned out to be a "disaster" for the Democratic candidate, as David Axelrod, former adviser to former US President Barack Obama, said on CNN on November 6.

Mr Trump did not miss his opportunity, playing clips of the exchange at his rallies and highlighting it in numerous television advertisements, according to AFP.

Source: https://thanhnien.vn/vi-sao-ba-harris-that-bai-truoc-ong-trump-trong-cuoc-bau-cu-my-2024-185241107093745969.htm