VPI forecasts gasoline price increase in the operating period tomorrow, October 16

The Vietnam Petroleum Institute's (VPI) Machine Learning-based gasoline price forecasting model shows that, in the operating period tomorrow, October 16, retail gasoline prices may increase by 0.9 - 1.5% compared to the previous operating period, if the Ministry of Finance - Industry and Trade does not set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund.

VPI forecasts gasoline prices to increase in the operating period on October 16. Photo: VNA

According to Mr. Doan Tien Quyet, data analysis expert of VPI, the gasoline price forecasting model applying artificial neural network (ANN) model and supervised learning algorithm in VPI's machine learning forecasts that the retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline may increase by 172 VND (0.9%) to 19,302 VND/liter, while RON 95-III gasoline may increase by 296 VND (1.5%) to 20,016 VND/liter.

VPI's model forecasts that in this period, diesel prices may decrease by 0.6% to VND18,488/liter, fuel oil may decrease by 0.9% to VND14,667/kg, while kerosene prices may increase by only 0.1% to VND18,441/kg.

VPI forecasts that this period, the Ministry of Finance and Industry and Trade will continue not to set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund.

On the world market, at the end of the session on October 14 (US time), Brent crude oil futures fell 1.5% to 62.39 USD/barrel; US light sweet crude oil (WTI) also fell 1.3% to 58.70 USD/barrel. Both types of oil fell to their lowest levels in 5 months.

The global oil market could face a larger surplus next year, estimated at up to 4 million barrels per day, as producers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its partners continue to increase output, while demand remains slow to recover, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Meanwhile, the latest OPEC+ monthly report said that the supply shortage in the oil market will narrow by 2026 as OPEC+ implements planned production increases.

ANZ bank expert Daniel Hynes also said that if geopolitical risks cool down, the market may return to concerns about oversupply in the near future.

Sharing the same view, Mr. Dennis Kissler, Senior Vice President in charge of trading at BoK Financial, predicted that the latest trade tensions between the US and China will continue to put pressure on crude oil prices, as the Chinese economy could be affected if tensions escalate.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said risk aversion was spreading as trade tensions weighed on market sentiment, while the IEA report was pessimistic.

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/thi-truong-tien-te/vpi-du-bao-gia-xang-tang-trong-ky-dieu-hanh-ngay-mai-1610-20251015150150582.htm