US Presidential Election: You have to enter the cave to catch the tiger

Both US presidential candidates are focusing on their opponents' "home turf", seeking to attract votes from the other side's strongholds.

Source: Financial Times - Data: NGOC DUC - Graphics: T.DAT

In addition to undecided voters, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are also actively reaching out to groups of voters who are loyal to their opponents but show signs of wavering in the final stretch of the race.

Hit the "den" straight

In just 11 hours on October 21 (local time), Ms. Harris and former congresswoman Liz Cheney held dialogues in three battleground states, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Although she is a highly respected member of the Republican Party, Ms. Cheney and her father, former Vice President Dick Cheney, have long criticized Mr. Trump's policies and publicly supported Ms. Harris. During the dialogues, the two women answered questions about Ms. Harris's policies and attacked Mr. Trump both professionally and personally. Clearly, the busy schedule with Ms. Cheney clearly reflects Ms. Harris's current campaign strategy: seeking to attract votes from Republican voters who have not been completely convinced by Mr. Trump in battleground states. Ms. Cheney is not the only Republican who has stood by Ms. Harris in recent days. On October 16, in Bucks County (Pennsylvania), many traditional voters or former Republican officials who are dissatisfied with Mr. Trump took the stage to campaign with the US vice president. Among them is Congressman Adam Kinzinger, who was once "disgraced" in the Republican Party for joining Ms. Cheney in the Commission to investigate the January 6, 2021 riot. Ms. Harris further expressed her desire to attract the Republican Party that does not like Mr. Trump with a message of harmony: "My campaign is not about opposing anything, but about strengthening the basic principles that founded our country. It is a fight for a new generation of leaders who are optimistic about what we can achieve together, overcoming political divisions to get the job done on behalf of the American people."

Reaching the Disadvantaged and Undecided Voters

Meanwhile, Mr. Trump is devoting part of his campaign efforts to the Democratic Party. On October 16, he held two rallies specifically for this group, one aimed at Latinos and the other at women.

Here, Mr. Trump tried to convince Latino voters with promises of an improved economy and a softer tone on immigration. A significant portion of this group of voters are immigrants from Central and South American countries. In front of a hall full of female voters, Mr. Trump emphasized his "pro-life" views. On October 20, the former US president tried to impress working-class voters by taking off his vest, wearing an apron and serving at a McDonald's. On October 21, the MAGA Inc. political action super committee also announced a $10 million advertising campaign targeting black and Latino voters in battleground states. These activities were carried out shortly after polls showed that Latino and black voters were gradually losing interest in Ms. Harris. A large number of these voters belong to the disadvantaged group in society, vulnerable when the economy goes down or job opportunities are narrowed. In recent days, Mr. Trump has had another "trump card" to campaign for himself, billionaire Elon Musk. Mr. Musk has had 5 consecutive nights of campaigning in Pennsylvania, even spending 1 million USD each day to reward like a lottery for those who register to vote and sign petitions supporting the 1st and 2nd Amendments of the Constitution related to freedom of speech and ownership of weapons. Through the super political action committee American PAC, he also gave 100 USD to each person who registers to vote and signs petitions, as a strong catalyst to attract voters to vote. In the days leading up to the election, attracting many undecided people to register to vote and vote is considered a decisive factor when traditional voters have already made up their minds. And Elon Musk seems to be "playing all-in" aiming for this in seven battleground states to support Mr. Trump.

Close competition

On October 22, surveys and prediction models from major media outlets showed a very close race between the two candidates. According to the New York Times , Ms. Harris is leading Mr. Trump by less than 1 percentage point nationwide. However, the former US president is leading in seven battleground states. The two candidates are basically tied in 4/7 of these states with the same support rate of 48%, namely Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Nevada. Ms. Harris leads Mr. Trump by nearly 1 percentage point in Wisconsin, but loses by more than 1 percentage point in Georgia and 2 percentage points in Arizona. The Financial Times survey results also show that Mr. Trump has a big advantage in 5/7 battleground states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and is tied with Ms. Harris in Nevada.

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