Belgium - Ukraine, Slovenia - Romania: The ironic situation when 4 points can still lead to elimination

There is precedent at the World Cup

At the 1994 World Cup (the World Cup finals at that time also had 24 teams, 16 teams were selected to continue, like the current EURO finals), the teams in Group E, Mexico, Ireland, Italy, Norway all got 4 points after 3 matches. The progress of the first 2 matches at that time was similar to Group E of this EURO. Italy lost to Ireland, won Norway; Mexico lost to Norway, won Ireland. That means each team won 1, lost 1, then in the final round, both the Italy - Mexico and Ireland - Norway matches were draws. This is the only time in World Cup history that this case has appeared.

In addition, all the non-draw matches in Group E of the 1994 World Cup were by just one goal. Therefore, at the end of the group stage, all four teams had a goal difference of zero. Norway ended up bottom of the group and were eliminated on a 1-1 goal difference. Mexico took the top spot on a 3-3 goal difference. Ireland and Italy both had a 2-2 goal difference, but Ireland finished above Italy because they beat Italy in a head-to-head match. Unlike the EURO, the World Cup uses goal difference as the most important sub-indicator, followed by total goals. If they are still tied, then the head-to-head result is considered.

Belgium (right) only need a draw with Ukraine to advance.

At EURO, head-to-head results are the leading secondary indicator. But if all four teams finish level on points, head-to-head results become meaningless. Goal difference is the next factor to be considered. At this point, the situation in Group E of EURO 2024 is considered clear before the ball rolls.

The case of 4 teams being level on points will only happen if Slovakia - Romania and Ukraine - Belgium both draw. Regardless of the specific score, Ukraine will be the bottom team and eliminated because of the -2 goal difference. Slovakia, with a goal difference of 0, will finish 3rd and advance as one of the 4 best 3rd place teams. It is not yet known whether Romania or Belgium will top the group, because they both have a +1 goal difference, but the exact number of goals is not yet known.

WILL R OMANIA AND S LOVAKIA DRAW?

One thing is for sure: Romania and Slovakia will both advance if they draw tonight. If they do, the winner may not be guaranteed top spot (depending on the result of the other match). On the other hand, both Romania and Slovakia won their opening matches, but lost their second matches.

It cannot be said that they are mentally excited. So, will these teams enter the game with the goal of taking all 3 points (which means accepting the risk of defeat)?

The Slovakia - Romania match is likely to end in a draw (or even a 0-0 draw). There is no indication that the two sides are intentionally "colluding" to advance together. Technically, it is clear that neither side is strong enough to confidently take all 3 points - and as mentioned, even if they take all 3 points, they are not sure to top the table.

Of course they will be cautious. Unless the other game (playing at the same time) is decided by a large margin, this one will be an open affair. Until they concede a goal, both Slovakia and Romania are assured of a place in the knockout stages. That is why this could very well end goalless (and don’t be surprised if it turns out to be a dull affair).

All attention will therefore be on Ukraine - the team that must try to win the remaining match to control its own destiny. It will be difficult for Ukraine, not only because Belgium is the most highly rated team in the group, but also because Belgium has no reason to insist on winning. A draw will not only ensure Belgium's progress, but also their top spot in the group. At the same level, when one side carefully tries to draw, it will be difficult for the other side to win, let alone when Belgium's professional level is even higher in this match.

Highest probability: Ukraine is eliminated in very special circumstances: for the first time in EURO history, teams in a group are equal on points before entering the final match.

Source: https://thanhnien.vn/bi-ukraine-slovenia-romania-tinh-canh-tro-treu-khi-4-diem-van-co-the-bi-loai-185240625230407557.htm