Preparation steps for the 2026 public investment plan

The disbursement rate of public investment capital slowed down in August 2025. Photo: Duc Thanh

High demand, lots of room

As the 2025 Public Investment Plan, as well as the 2021-2025 Medium-Term Public Investment Plan, enter the final stage, it is time to prepare for the next year's plan and the next medium-term period. Currently, the first drafts of these plans have been built and, as usual, the investment needs of ministries, branches and localities are very large.

The Ministry of Finance 's report shows that, according to preliminary and incomplete statistics (because some localities have not yet reported their needs on the National Information System and Database on Public Investment), as of September 4, 2025, the total demand for public investment plans from the state budget in 2026 of ministries, branches and localities is over VND 1,154 trillion. Of which, the capital source from the central budget is over VND 535,846 billion, and the local budget capital is over VND 618,530 billion.

The demand is very large, however, according to the Ministry of Finance, the above figure is only a preliminary demand, and has not been assessed for disbursement capacity and conformity with the goals, orientations, and allocation principles as prescribed.

In 2025, the total public investment resources approved by the National Assembly will be over VND 829,365 billion. If including the additional part from the increased budget revenue in 2025, as well as the capital transferred from the previous year, the figure will be about VND 1 million billion. This is an important resource to promote economic growth in 2025 to reach over 8%, striving to reach 8.3-8.5% as the target set by the Government.

The large investment resources in 2025 are due to the strong economic recovery in recent years, thereby contributing to the budget revenue exceeding the estimate. According to the Ministry of Finance, the total state budget revenue in 2024 is estimated to reach over 2,037 trillion VND, equal to 119.78% of the estimate for 2024.

In 2025, with a high economic growth rate (forecasted to reach at least 8%), budget revenue will be even more positive. After 8 months, state budget revenue is estimated to reach 1.74 quadrillion VND, equal to 88.5% of the estimate, up 28.5% over the same period. High budget revenue will contribute significantly to helping the economy have more resources for development investment and more room for fiscal policy.

Disbursement of public investment is both urgent and strategic and is a key task to promote growth, stabilize the macro-economy, ensure major balances of the economy, create jobs, income and livelihoods for people.

- Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh

According to the Ministry of Finance's estimates, the total balance of state budget development investment expenditure in 2026 could reach VND1,120 trillion, of which public investment expenditure is VND1,080 trillion and other development investment expenditure is about VND40,000 billion. However, the final figure depends on the state budget balance framework in 2026, as well as the 2026 Public Investment Plan and the 2026-2030 Medium-Term Public Investment Plan under development.

“With a low public debt ratio, Vietnam has ample fiscal space. If implemented effectively, public investment can both address infrastructure shortcomings and create jobs,” said Mariam J. Sherman, World Bank Country Director for Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos.

The key is to promote disbursement

Although public investment resources allocated for 2025 and expected for the whole of 2026 are at a "huge" level, the key to making this resource contribute to economic growth is still how to spend all of this money.

In 2025, the Government's target is to disburse 100% of the capital. However, currently, after 8 months, the disbursement of public investment capital is only about 409,174.5 billion VND, reaching 46.3% of the plan assigned by the Prime Minister (in the same period in 2024, it reached 40.4% of the plan assigned by the Prime Minister). In terms of absolute numbers, the disbursement of public investment in the first 8 months of this year is about 138,290 billion VND higher than the same period last year.

This disbursement rate, according to Deputy Minister of Finance Tran Quoc Phuong, is “positive”. However, in reality, the disbursement rate is slowing down in August 2025. And the reasons come from many factors: the impact of the arrangement and reorganization of administrative units at all levels and the transition to a 2-level local government organization model; some public investment resources have not yet been allocated in detail; due to difficulties in mechanisms, policies, site clearance, etc.

To promote disbursement of public investment capital, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh recently continued to issue an official dispatch requesting ministries, branches, and localities to focus on promoting disbursement of public investment capital in 2025, with the goal of achieving 100% of the plan.

Economists also believe that promoting public investment disbursement is an effective way to boost economic growth. “To support growth and minimize external risks, Vietnam needs to boost public investment, control risks in the financial system and promote structural reforms,” Mariam J. Sherman recommended.

2026 is expected to be the first year that Vietnam enters a period of double-digit growth. Currently, the Socio-Economic Development Plan for 2026 is being developed. And one of the important proposed targets is GDP growth of about 10%.

To achieve this high growth rate, many solutions will be implemented, but an important part of the responsibility continues to be placed on the shoulders of fiscal policy, including increasing resource mobilization and promoting disbursement of public investment capital. If by 2026, public investment resources are met at a level of over VND 1,120 trillion, it means that the pressure to inject capital into the economy will be even greater.

According to the Ministry of Finance, one of the important requirements of the 2026 Public Investment Plan is to allocate capital in a concentrated manner, not in a dispersed or spread-out manner; to promote centralized management, unify goals, mechanisms, and policies, and strongly promote the role of public investment leading private investment to attract and mobilize social resources for development; and to resolutely eliminate the "ask - give" mechanism...

At the same time, priority will be given to ensuring resources for important national projects, large projects that are transformational, situation-changing, key projects and national target programs... This will be an important initial step, ensuring the success of building and implementing the 2026 Public Investment Plan.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/buoc-chuan-bi-cho-ke-hoach-dau-tu-cong-2026-d386547.html