Fed officials deeply divided on the state of the economy

VTV.vn - The disagreement in the Fed's 19-member interest rate-setting committee reflects an extremely uncertain economic outlook caused by many factors.

Fed officials deeply divided on the state of the economy

Federal Reserve officials are deeply divided over the state of the economy and whether persistent inflation or weak employment is the bigger threat.

In speeches this week, some policymakers expressed greater concern about persistent inflation, while others were more concerned that the “low hiring, low firing” situation could worsen and that layoffs could spread.

The dissent in the Fed's 19-member rate-setting committee reflects a highly uncertain economic outlook driven by a variety of factors, including artificial intelligence and changes in immigration and tax policy.

A smaller Fed rate cut could lead to higher mortgage and auto loan costs. Polls show that higher mortgage and auto loan costs contribute to many people's perception that the cost of living is too high.

Some Fed watchers believe there could be an unusually high number of dissents at the December 9-10 meeting, regardless of whether the Fed cuts rates. Krishna Guha, an analyst at consultancy Evercore ISI, said a rate cut could have four or five dissents, while a rate-maintaining decision could have three dissents.

Four dissenting votes would be highly unusual, as the Fed always seeks consensus. The last time four officials dissented was in 1992, under Chairman Alan Greenspan.

The divergence is exacerbated by the government shutdown, which has disrupted economic data, a particular challenge for the Fed, which Chairman Jerome Powell often describes as “data-dependent.” The government’s last jobs report was in August 2025, and inflation in September 2025.

The final September 2025 jobs report will be released on November 20 and is expected to show a modest gain of 50,000 jobs and the unemployment rate unchanged at a still-low 4.3%.

Source: https://vtv.vn/cac-quan-chuc-fed-bat-dong-sau-sac-ve-tinh-hinh-nen-kinh-te-100251119180451935.htm