A study recently published in Nature Communications confirms that humanity is facing the largest outbreak in history of avian influenza A/H5N1 (highly pathogenic avian influenza).
The risk of an outbreak to humans is still assessed by WHO as "low" but is increasing because the virus has and continues to change.
Dr Richard Webby, Director of the WHO Collaborating Centre for the Ecology of Influenza in Animals and Birds - a member of the research team, warned that "something happened" in mid-2021.
Dr. Richard Webby - Photo: ST JUDE CHILDREN'S RESEARCH HOSPITAL
That was when the flu suddenly proved to be much more contagious than previous bird flu outbreaks, causing outbreaks that have lasted to this day, sweeping through wild birds, poultry and even mammals that had never been infected with the disease before.
Research confirms that the virus has mutated and increased its virulence (ability to cause severe illness) as it spread from Europe to North America from 2021 to present.
Researchers examined a ferret infected with one of the new strains of influenza A/H5N1 and found huge amounts of the virus in its brain.
The WHO said in February that the risk of human infection and disease remained low, after two cases of the virus in Cambodia (one of whom died) were determined to have been transmitted from animals rather than from person to person.
The team reiterated that “low” risk classification but with a caveat: “This virus is not static, it is changing.”
"That raises the possibility, even by chance, that this virus has genetic features that allow it to become more like a human virus," Dr. Webby said. That means the risk of it increasing its ability to infect humans and spread from person to person still hangs in the balance.
The team is still looking for two or three small changes that could occur in a protein of the virus that would make it more adapted to humans. Luckily, none have been found so far.
The authors said what is needed now is continued surveillance, as well as efforts to vaccinate poultry to contain this major outbreak, as several countries including China, Egypt, Vietnam... have done.
In Vietnam, human A/H5N1 influenza is classified as a group A infectious disease - more dangerous than the current COVID-19, which has just been downgraded.
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