Republic of Ireland must lose to Netherlands if they want to qualify for Euro 2024

If they want to keep their hopes of qualifying for Euro 2024 alive, the Republic of Ireland must lose to the Netherlands in their next Group B qualifier.

In Group B, the Republic of Ireland finished fourth out of five teams, with six points from seven games. In the five-team group, France is all but certain to qualify with 18 points. The Netherlands finished second with 12 points, equal to Greece but with one game less. Only the top two teams will qualify directly for the finals. The Republic of Ireland is therefore out of the running for a direct Euro 2024 spot.

Teams have a second route to qualifying, via the Nations League. The final play-offs will include the best Nations League teams who did not qualify for Euro 2024 through the qualifying rounds. For the Republic of Ireland to make the play-offs, there need to be fewer than eight non-qualifying teams above them in the Nations League table.

The Republic of Ireland (blue) has lost hope of qualifying directly for Euro 2024 after losing 1-2 to the Netherlands last month. Photo: Reuters

Both the Netherlands and Greece are qualified for the play-offs, but in the current Nations League standings Greece is below the Republic of Ireland, while the Netherlands is above the Republic of Ireland. If the Netherlands were to qualify for Germany, their play-off spot would be transferred to a team below them, namely the Republic of Ireland.

If the Netherlands stumble in the remaining qualifying rounds and lose second place to Greece, they will still have to play a play-off and then the Republic of Ireland will lose all hope of qualifying for the Euro. In fact, in case they lose to the Republic of Ireland at home in the match on November 19, the Netherlands still have a chance to make amends by beating weak opponent Gibraltar in the final round to secure second place in the group.

The complex situation is unlikely to happen but it will still provide a lesson for UEFA. They did not foresee such problems when they opened an alternative route to the Euros through the Nations League.

According to UEFA's calculation, 20 teams in 10 groups will go straight to the Euro finals through the qualifying round. 12 teams in the play-off will compete for three Euro tickets, together with hosts Germany to make up 24 teams participating in the finals.

12 teams in the play-off in case the Netherlands qualify directly: Czech Republic, Wales, Estonia, Finland, Israel, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Ukraine, Republic of Ireland, Georgia, Greece, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg.

12 teams in the play-off in case Greece wins directly: Netherlands, Czech Republic, Wales, Estonia, Finland, Israel, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Ukraine, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Azerbaijan.

Vy Anh

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