Only Liverpool has the right to decide the Premier League title

The draw between Man City and Arsenal made both teams lose the right to decide to Liverpool, in the race for the Premier League title.

After round 30, Liverpool, Arsenal and Man City have played 29 matches, respectively winning 67, 65 and 64 points. Since the three teams will not meet in the remaining nine matches, only Liverpool has the right to decide. That means if they win all nine matches, Jurgen Klopp's team will usurp the championship title from Man City.

Forward Mohamed Salah celebrates the decisive goal that helped Liverpool beat Brighton 2-1 at Anfield, round 30 of the Premier League on March 31, 2024. Photo: Reuters

Excluding the two recent matches against Arsenal and Man City, Liverpool have won nine consecutive matches. Apart from Arsenal and Man City, Liverpool have only dropped points once at Anfield - a 0-0 draw with Man Utd in round 17.

Opta 's supercomputer ran 10,000 simulations of the remaining nine matches between these three teams, showing that the probability of Liverpool winning the title is up to 47.7%. This is an increase of 12.4% compared to before Man City drew with Arsenal. 12.4% is also the decrease in Man City's chance of winning the title after this match, down to 33.5%. Meanwhile, Arsenal only has an 18.8% chance of winning the title.

However, Liverpool's remaining fixtures are not simple, as they have to face all three remaining teams in the top 6, Man Utd at Old Trafford, Tottenham at Anfield and Aston Villa at Villa Park. One of Liverpool's two defeats this season came at the hands of Tottenham, in a controversial match.

Arsenal still have three top-six games to play, including a home game against Aston Villa and two trips to Tottenham and Man Utd. In addition, Mikel Arteta's team also have two away games that are expected to be difficult against Brighton and Wolverhampton.

Man City are losing ground in the title race, but they only have two teams left to face in the Top 6, including their next match against Aston Villa on the evening of April 3. Even if they win their next match, and Liverpool and Arsenal both lose, Pep Guardiola's team is unlikely to reclaim the top spot due to their poor goal difference.

Hoang An

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