Stock market week 9-13/6: Be cautious but not too pessimistic

VN-Index enters unpredictable zone

The market started the beginning of June with many unpredictable developments. After 2 consecutive sessions of increase at the beginning of the week with real estate stocks, approaching the 1,350 point area (the highest level in the past 3 years), the market slid for the next 3 trading sessions, closing the week at the price of 1,330 points, down slightly by 2.71 points.

Order matching liquidity was high, with transactions on the HOSE floor increasing by 18.8% compared to the 20-week average, reaching VND22,659 billion.

The index closed down but the market opening was still in the green with 14/21 industry groups gaining points. Leading the way were Construction (+3.72%), Electricity (+3.49%) and Oil and Gas (+2.2%). On the other hand, Retail (-3.22%), Aviation (-1.7%) and Seaport (-1.14%) were the industry groups under the strongest correction pressure.

Foreign investors maintained their net selling momentum with a total value of -2,106 billion VND. In particular, the focus was on: VHM (Vinhomes, HOSE) with 1,770 billion VND, STB (Sacombank, HOSE) with 423 billion VND and FPT (FPT, HOSE) with 322 billion VND. On the contrary, APG (APG Securities, HOSE) with 413 billion VND, VND (VNDirect, HOSE) with 338 billion VND and SHB (SHB, HOSE) with 205 billion VND were the stocks that this group bought the most.

Scenarios for investors in the 30 key tariff days

During the crucial 30 days of the US's decision to impose tariffs on countries (including Vietnam), Pinetree experts believe that the market will continue to maintain a state of high caution as there is no clear information from the Vietnam - US tariff negotiation process.

Accordingly, the Vietnamese stock market has experienced its first week of adjustment after four consecutive weeks of increase, with the VN-Index having difficulty breaking through the old peak zone around 1,320–1,343 points – an important price level before the collapse due to tariff concerns.

In the negative scenario, the market is forecast to be under strong pressure and fall back to test the support zone around 1,280-1,300 points. The possibility of the index falling to this zone will be more obvious if selling pressure increases in large-cap stocks and investors need to pay close attention to this factor to build a suitable strategy.

Chứng khoán tuần 9 – 13/6: Cần thận trọng nhưng không quá bi quan - Ảnh 1. — Investors prepare for the crucial 30-day scenario from US tariffs

According to experts, the lack of supportive information in the market after the "first quarter financial report and general meeting of shareholders" season, along with the lack of breakthrough in the US-Vietnam trade negotiations, has made investors more cautious, especially when the 90-day reciprocal tax deferral period is only a little over a month away from expiring.

Therefore, the scenario of VN-Index in the coming time will retest the support zone around 1,320 points. The development of VN-Index in this zone will determine whether the short-term uptrend of the market is maintained or not. If this support is lost, VN-Index may retreat to a deeper support zone at 1,300 points.

In that context, investors should consider reducing leverage and adjusting the proportion of stocks to a safe level. Realizing profits and prioritizing portfolio risk management in the context of the market entering a "crucial" 30 days with many important events taking place such as the FED policy meeting in mid-June and the deadline for negotiating reciprocal taxes in early July.

Market growth drivers in the second half of 2025

Accordingly, monetary policies from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) are still creating short-term pressure on the market as the Fed still keeps interest rates high and is forecast to cut interest rates only 1-2 times in 2025. This makes the yield on 10-year US bonds likely to remain around 4.3-4.5%, reducing the attractiveness of stocks compared to bonds, thereby creating pressure on global capital flows.

In addition, trade tensions between the US and other countries, especially China, also affect Vietnam. The high reciprocal tax rate (46%) can strongly impact Vietnam's export activities. This factor can affect the growth rate of the Vietnamese economy in general and the stock market outlook in particular.

However, internal factors can offset these pressures. KIS Securities said internal drivers such as expansionary monetary and fiscal policies and attractive valuations will drive market growth in the second half of 2025.

Chứng khoán tuần 9 – 13/6: Cần thận trọng nhưng không quá bi quan - Ảnh 2. — The State Bank has many moves to help promote the Vietnamese stock market.

Specifically, the first internal factor comes from loose monetary policies that can have a positive impact on the economy. The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) is pursuing a flexible and growth-supporting monetary policy throughout 2024-2025, with operating interest rates at historic lows. As a result, businesses have cheaper access to capital, stimulating production and business. This is a positive point supporting the stock market, both reducing capital costs for listed companies and making the deposit channel relatively less attractive compared to stock investment.

In addition, promoting public investment disbursement is also considered an important factor at the current stage. Accordingly, public investment could be the most important growth driver in 2025 to compensate for export difficulties.

In the stock market, although the VN-Index is trading around the highest price in 2025, overall, KIS Securities still believes that market valuation is still attractive.

In addition, the prospect of upgrading the market will attract new capital flows. Accordingly, the current goal of the Vietnamese stock market is to be announced by FTSE Russell for upgrading in September 2025 and implemented from 2026. Many efforts in the past will promote the market upgrading in September 2025. When upgraded, new foreign capital flows will flow into the Vietnamese stock market.

Comments and recommendations

Mr. Pham Thanh Tien, Consultant, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) assessed that VN-Index closed the fourth consecutive week of increasing points, however, the weakening signals are increasingly evident as the index could not conquer the strong resistance zone around the 1,340 - 1,350 point mark.

Despite support from some large-cap stocks, the market generally lacks momentum to break out. Notably, speculative cash flow into mid- and small-cap stocks – which were the main driving force in the recent rally – is showing clear signs of weakening, with many stocks making deep corrections in the last session of the week. This shows that investor sentiment is gradually shifting to a defensive state and withdrawing from high-risk groups, reflecting a more negative view in the short term.

However, according to him, this profit-taking is a normal development, showing the rotation of cash flow from the VN30 group to the Midcap group.

In addition, at this time, the market is being well supported by information about upgrading, Circular 03/2025/TT-NHNN on opening and using VND accounts for foreign investors to invest indirectly in Vietnam, KRX has been operating smoothly, foreign investors' cash flow is continuously net buying... this is the basis for the cash flow for both domestic and foreign investors to maintain an increasing level and keep the market at the 1,300 point threshold and when the score and liquidity increase accordingly.

Based on this, he recommends that the securities industry will benefit but should only be purchased when prices are adjusted. Investors can consider investing in some high beta codes, because prices will increase dramatically when the industry group appears.

In addition, some other industry groups are exempted from Trump's tariff policies, including: Retail - MWG (Mobile World, HOSE), Infrastructure Construction - CTI (Cuong Thuan IDICO Development, HOSE), Pharmaceuticals - DBD (Binh Dinh Pharmaceutical - Medical BIDIPAR, HOSE), Utilities (electricity, water) - BWE (Biwase, HOSE), REE (REE Refrigeration and Electrical Engineering, HOSE).

TPS Securities said that VN-Index is under strong correction pressure, the index is likely to return to the state of adjustment/accumulation within a narrow range. VN30 index is also maintaining short-term accumulation above the old support line, corresponding to the 1,400 point area. If bottom-fishing demand appears in this area, VN30 may soon recover. Therefore, TPS maintains a cautious view in the short term, but is not too pessimistic. The current correction can open up buying opportunities at reasonable prices.

Vietnam Construction Securities recommends that investors should continue to hold their current portfolios, even open new buying positions when the general market fluctuates, especially increasing their net buying positions when the VN-Index adjusts to the support zone of 1,285 - 1,300 points.

Dividend schedule this week

According to statistics, there are 43 enterprises that have decided to pay dividends in the week of June 9-13, of which 32 enterprises pay in cash, 9 enterprises pay in shares, and 2 enterprises give bonus shares.

The highest rate is 60%, the lowest is 1.6%.

9 companies pay by stock:

Rong Viet Securities Corporation (VDS, HOSE) , ex-right trading date is June 10, rate 10%.

CPC1 Hanoi Pharmaceutical Joint Stock Company (DTP, UPCoM) , ex-right trading date is June 11, rate 100%.

Viet Duc Electric Welding Rod JSC (QHD, HNX) , ex-right trading date is June 11, rate 20%.

Dat Phuong Group Corporation (DPG, HOSE) , ex-rights trading date is June 11, rate 60%.

Refrigeration Electrical Engineering Corporation (REE, HOSE) , ex-right trading date is June 11, rate 15%.

BIDV Securities Corporation (BSI, HOSE) , ex-right trading date is June 11, rate 10%.

Vietnam Construction and Import-Export Corporation – Vinaconex (VCG, HOSE) , ex-right trading date is June 11, rate 8%.

Danang Pharmaceutical and Medical Equipment JSC (DDN, UPCoM), ex-right trading date is June 12, rate 5%.

Truong Son Investment and Construction Joint Stock Company (TSA, UPCoM) , ex-right trading date is June 13, rate 5%.

2 companies award shares:

FPT Telecommunication Joint Stock Company (FOX, UPCoM) , ex-right trading date is June 9, rate 50%.

Thanh Cong Textile - Investment - Trading Joint Stock Company (TCM, HOSE) , ex-right trading date is June 9, rate 10%.

Cash dividend payment schedule

*Ex-right date: is the transaction date on which the buyer, upon establishing ownership of shares, will not enjoy related rights such as the right to receive dividends, the right to purchase additional issued shares, but will still enjoy the right to attend the shareholders' meeting.

Code	Floor	GDKHQ Day	Date TH	Proportion
HNF	UPCOM	9/6	June 26	20%
SRC	HOSE	9/6	6/24	6%
PTX	HNX	9/6	6/24	24%
GTS	UPCOM	9/6	10/7	9%
PDB	HNX	9/6	June 26	15%
MND	UPCOM	9/6	June 30	7.5%
BSL	UPCOM	9/6	10/7	7%
HNB	UPCOM	9/6	7/22	7%
TVD	HNX	9/6	6/24	8%
BHN	HOSE	9/6	10/7	11.5%
VNL	HOSE	9/6	June 25	5%
SHB	HOSE	9/6	June 20	5%
PTS	HNX	9/6	June 26	5%
IMP	HOSE	9/6	9/7	5%
QNP	HOSE	10/6	18/7	14%
PLX	HOSE	10/6	6/24	12%
VNF	HNX	10/6	June 26	15%
GMA	HNX	10/6	June 25	10%
TVH	UPCOM	11/6	15/7	41%
SBM	UPCOM	11/6	June 27	10%
DPG	HOSE	11/6	4/7	10%
VMS	HNX	11/6	6/24	8%
BSD	UPCOM	11/6	15/7	5%
BFC	HOSE	11/6	June 27	25%
HMD	UPCOM	11/6	June 30	5%
VIN	UPCOM	12/6	June 27	6%
SBR	UPCOM	12/6	June 30	1.6%
CQN	UPCOM	June 13	17/7	10%
GND	UPCOM	June 13	June 26	10%
DAD	HNX	June 13	June 27	5%
TRA	HOSE	June 13	4/7	20%
NTP	HNX	June 13	June 25	10%
DRC	HOSE	June 13	10/7	6%