Experts predict: Standard score may decrease by 2-3 points, but it is not certain that passing is easy

TPO - The 2025 high school graduation exam scores show a clear level of differentiation, with many subjects seeing a sharp decrease in average scores, especially Math and English. Meanwhile, some top universities have seen a sharp increase in the number of applicants. This makes predicting benchmark scores complicated and full of surprises.

Unpredictable benchmarks

According to Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Duc Son, Principal of Hanoi National University of Education, with the results of this year's High School Graduation Exam, looking at the score distribution, universities can rest assured as a basis for enrollment.

The Associate Professor pointed out two special and innovative points in this year's exam. Firstly, the exam has had innovations related to modern testing techniques. Secondly, the exam has provided data linked to practical knowledge to assess students' abilities. This is also the correct assessment of the goals and directions of the 2018 General Education Program.

Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Duc Son, Principal of Hanoi National University of Education.

After the graduation exam ended, public opinion raised the issue of the exam being too difficult, there was a big gap between teaching in school and taking exams. Associate Professor Nguyen Duc Son said that this was a very interesting, surprising point and an optimistic sign in the exam. We thought that students could not do it, but the results were "very shocking", showing that they had the ability to adapt quickly.

Regarding the Pedagogical University, Mr. Son expects that this year, he will be able to recruit better quality human resources. Because the exam has good differentiation, plus the Law on Teachers has just been passed, creating a very good motivation for recruitment.

Up to this point, the number of students who have won national excellent student awards from third prize and above and registered for schools that are eligible for admission has reached more than 500 (last year's number was about 300 and direct admission was about 100). That shows that the attraction to the teaching profession this year can be very large and the standard score is a matter that needs to be calculated.

The principal of Hanoi National University of Education also said that it is difficult to predict the standard score this year because the initial scores must be converted, then the exact information will be available. However, even though the school has many separate direct admission methods, the rate of students using high school graduation exam scores for admission is always around 60%.

It is not when the exam questions and scores are released this year that schools, teachers, and students change their learning methods. Right from the implementation of the 2018 General Education Program, the goal of the program is that the entire teaching and learning process at the high school level must change.

“In particular, we have focused on training teachers over the years to teach and learn in a way that develops students’ abilities. The difference is that if a person has the ability to detect and solve problems, they will not have to learn a lot about tricks and riddles to get high scores on exams,” said Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Duc Son.

He said that for high schools, determining students who study well, have a solid grasp of knowledge, and are able to detect problems will get high scores and this has been oriented.

Benchmark may drop 2-3 points

Meanwhile, Professor Nguyen Dinh Duc, Chairman of the Council of the University of Technology, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, acknowledged that the score distribution of 12 subjects in the high school graduation exam showed that the average score of all subjects this year decreased compared to last year, except for Physics.

Professor, Dr. Nguyen Dinh Duc said that the situation where a candidate is 0.1 points short of the university entrance exam can still happen in hot majors, top schools, and medical schools with high admission scores.

In particular, Mr. Duc analyzed, Math decreased the most, from 6.45 to 4.78. The score distribution shifted from right to left. Next was Chemistry, the average score decreased by 0.62, down to 6.06.

Prof. Dr. Nguyen Dinh Duc, Chairman of the Council of the University of Technology, Vietnam National University, Hanoi.

Looking at the right side of the subject score spectrum, the percentage of excellent scores (8 and above) has decreased sharply, especially in Math and English. In previous years, the percentage of excellent scores was up to 20-30%. Only in Physics this year, the average score increased from 6.67 last year to 6.99 points.

From the score distribution of subjects, Professor Duc predicted that majors with a combination of Math and English would also decrease by a similar amount of 2-3 points, while at the time the score distribution had not been announced, many people predicted a decrease of up to 2-6 points. In addition, the benchmark score for the combination of Literature and Geography subjects is likely to decrease slightly, with little fluctuation.

The score spectrum is skewed left, will the benchmark scores for blocks A00 and B00 this year decrease by 2-3 points?

Teacher Ngo Xuan Quynh, a teacher at Phan Dinh Phung High School (Hanoi), said that the average score for Chemistry this year was only 6.06, down 0.62 points compared to 2024. The score range shifted from 7.75 to the 5.0-5.25 range, showing that the number of candidates with good-excellent scores has decreased sharply, while the number of low scores has increased dramatically.

Teacher Ngo Xuan Quynh, teacher at Phan Dinh Phung High School (Hanoi)

Notably, nearly 30% of students scored below average, while last year this figure was only about 16%, and only 625 exams scored 10 points, less than half the number of 10 points in 2024 (1,278 exams).

The decrease in average scores does not mean that students are learning less, but because the 2025 exam focuses on assessing real abilities: the ability to understand, analyze, relate knowledge, and solve practical situations - in the spirit of the 2018 General Education Program.

“Previously, many students got 8-9 points thanks to memorizing and practicing the questions, but with the new exam, only those who understand the nature and know how to think clearly can get high scores,” Mr. Quynh emphasized.

The left-skewed score distribution causes the entire score level of candidates to be pulled down. While the number of excellent students is scarce and the average score is decreasing, the benchmark scores of schools are forced to adjust to ensure the source of admission.

At mid-level schools and regional universities according to the A00 (Math-Physics-Chemistry) and B00 (Math-Chemistry-Biology) blocks: The standard score will decrease sharply by 2-3 points, due to the large decrease in the percentage of candidates reaching the admission threshold. This is a golden opportunity for candidates with good academic performance but not as high scores as in previous years.

At the top schools (Medical-Pharmacy, Polytechnic, Natural Sciences ), even though the average score is low, the group of excellent students is still large enough to compete, the benchmark score only decreases very slightly, 0.25 - 1 point, or even remains the same due to "competition for the top".

“In schools that take a secondary combination with Chemistry (A01, D07...), the impact will depend on the fluctuations in the remaining subjects (Math, English, Biology), but the possibility of the benchmark score still decreasing slightly due to Chemistry, Math, English, Biology pulling down the total score” - Mr. Quynh said.

Although the average score tends to decrease, the number of applications to top schools is still increasing sharply. Many "hot" majors can still maintain a standard score of over 27, even 28 points with the combination of A00, B00.

In the Social Sciences group, the combined score of Literature - History - Geography (C00) may only decrease slightly due to the stable score range, the 10 points of History and Geography are quite high.

With these unpredictable fluctuations, experts recommend that candidates consider carefully before registering and adjusting their wishes.

Source: https://tienphong.vn/chuyen-gia-du-bao-diem-chuan-co-the-giam-23-diem-nhung-chua-chac-de-dau-post1761102.tpo