The duel between conservatives and moderates

About 29 million Poles aged 18 and over will go to the polls to elect a new parliament in a general election on October 15, choosing 460 members of the lower house and 100 members of the upper house for a four-year term.

The crucial election will chart the way forward for the European Union's (EU) fifth-most populous country and sixth-largest economy .

The results will determine whether the nationalist conservative United Right (ZP), led by the Law and Justice Party (PiS), wins an unprecedented third consecutive term, or whether the opposition Civic Coalition (KO), led by the Civic Platform (PO) party, gains enough support to oust the ruling party that has governed Poland for the past eight years.

A referendum on immigration, retirement age and other issues is being held at the same time, which the opposition says is just an attempt by the ruling party to sway voters.

World - Polish Election: A duel between conservatives and moderates — Poland's general election on October 15, 2023, will be a duel between Donald Tusk, leader of the opposition Civic Platform (PO), and Jaroslaw Kaczynski, leader of the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party. Photo: The Guardian

General Election Day

On election day, more than 31,000 polling stations across Poland will be open from 7am to 9pm local time (Vietnam time = Poland time + 5). More than 400 polling stations will operate abroad.

The election silence period, when no campaigning is held and no opinion polls are published, begins at midnight on October 14 and lasts throughout the election.

The results of the Ipsos poll will be released on state broadcaster TVP and commercial stations TVN and Polsat when the general election ends at 9 p.m. local time on October 15. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Individual parties need to win at least 5% of the vote to win seats in parliament, coalitions need at least 8% of the vote.

Volunteers affiliated with political parties will monitor polling stations. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OECD) has also deployed a limited election observation mission.

World - Polish Election: A duel between conservatives and moderates (Figure 2). — Donald Tusk, leader of the opposition Civic Platform (PO) party, at an anti-government protest in Warsaw, October 8, 2023. Photo: Getty Images

Preliminary results are likely to be known by the end of October 15, and official results are expected to be announced by the Polish Election Commission on October 17.

Pre-election polls showed PiS would win the most votes, with 36%, but not enough to win a majority in the new Polish parliament. Meanwhile, KO was expected to win 30% of the vote.

In addition to PiS and KO, the general election in Poland also saw the participation of smaller parties and coalitions such as the Third Way alliance between the Poland 2050 party and the Polish Peasant Party (PSL), the far-right Confederation, as well as the New Left. These small parties and coalitions won 9-14% of the vote, according to pre-election polls.

The duel

The upcoming general election is a duel between the ruling PiS party and the opposition KO alliance, while smaller parties and alliances will play a decisive role in the formation of a new government.

PiS has faced accusations at home and abroad of undermining democratic norms and reshaping Poland according to its deeply conservative values, but its welfare programs and minimum wage hikes are popular with the masses.

Through PiS programs that improve living standards for millions of Poles, the ruling party can build broader support across the country.

World - Polish Election: A duel between conservatives and moderates (Figure 3). — Mr. Jaroslaw Kaczynski with Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak at the headquarters of the ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS), August 2023. Photo: Shutterstock

PiS has pledged to increase social spending further and also plans to increase the standing army to 300,000 soldiers. The party has promised to continue supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russia but not at the expense of Poland's own interests.

They also seek greater independence within the EU, oppose the EU Migration and Asylum Pact, and vow to tackle illegal migration, particularly from the Middle East and Africa.

Meanwhile, KO – the main centrist opposition coalition, comprising the Civic Platform (PO), Greens, and Modern and Polish Initiative parties – pledged to dismantle PiS’s judicial reforms in order to free up billions of euros in EU recovery funds.

KO also promised an overall improvement in Poland's strained relationship with the EU. The coalition said it would guarantee media freedom and liberalise abortion laws following a near-total ban on terminations from 2021 .

Minh Duc (According to Reuters, AP)

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