Economic news review January 31

The central exchange rate decreased by 32 VND, the VN-Index decreased by 15.34 points, or the number of newly established enterprises in January 2024 was 13,536 enterprises... are some notable economic information on January 31.

Economic news review January 29 Economic news review January 30

Economic news review

Domestic news

In the foreign exchange market on January 31, the State Bank listed the central exchange rate at 23,991 VND/USD, a sharp decrease of 32 VND compared to the previous session.

The State Bank of Vietnam's transaction office kept the USD buying price listed at 23,400 VND/USD, while the USD selling price was listed at 25,140 VND/USD, 50 VND lower than the ceiling exchange rate.

On the interbank market, the dollar-dong exchange rate closed at 24,415 VND/USD, up 20 VND compared to the session on January 30.

The dollar-dong exchange rate on the free market increased by 10 VND in both buying and selling directions, trading at 24,950 VND/USD and 25,000 VND/USD.

On January 31, the average interbank VND interest rate increased sharply by 0.41 - 0.89 percentage points in the interbank money market for all terms of 1 month or less, specifically: overnight 1.06%; 1 week 1.34%; 2 weeks 1.50% and 1 month 1.66%.

The average interbank USD interest rate increased by 0.02 - 0.06 percentage points for short terms while remaining unchanged for 1-month terms; trading at: overnight 5.21%; 1 week 5.28%; 2 weeks 5.33%, 1 month 5.40%.

Government bond yields in the secondary market fluctuated in opposite directions; closing at: 3-year 1.19%; 5-year 1.39%; 7-year 1.81%; 10-year 2.28%; 15-year 2.49%.

Yesterday's open market operations, on the mortgage channel, the State Bank of Vietnam offered VND1,000 billion for a 7-day term, the interest rate remained at 4.0%. There was no winning bid volume, no maturity in yesterday's session. Thus, there was VND2.28 billion circulating on the mortgage channel. The State Bank of Vietnam did not offer SBV bills, there were no bills circulating on the market.

On the bond market on January 31, the State Treasury called for bids for VND10,000 billion of government bonds. The winning bid volume was VND3,007 billion (equivalent to a winning rate of 30%). Of which, the 5-year term mobilized VND350 billion/VND3,500 billion of the call; the 10-year term mobilized VND1,542 billion/VND3,000 billion; the 15-year term mobilized VND950 billion/VND3,000 billion and the 30-year term mobilized VND165 billion/VND500 billion. The winning interest rate for the 5-year term was 1.39% (unchanged compared to the previous auction), 10-year was 2.28% (+0.08 percentage points), 15-year was 2.48% (+0.08 percentage points) and 30-year was 2.85% (unchanged).

On the stock market on January 31, investors' sentiment was quite pessimistic, causing all indices to fall. At the end of the trading session, VN-Index fell sharply by 15.34 points (-1.30%) to 1,164.31 points; HNX-Index lost 1.49 points (-0.64%) to 229.18 points; UPCoM-Index fell 0.16 points (-0.18%) to 87.69 points. Market liquidity increased sharply with a trading value of over VND25,600 billion. Foreign investors net bought nearly VND144 billion on all three exchanges.

According to the Department of Business Registration Management ( Ministry of Planning and Investment ), the number of newly established enterprises in January 2024 was 13,536 (up 24.8% over the same period in 2023) with registered capital reaching VND 151,451 billion (up 52.8% over the same period in 2023); 13,799 enterprises returned to operation in January 2024.

However, in January 2024, 53,888 businesses withdrew from the market, an increase of 22.8% over the same period in 2023. Of which, the majority of businesses chose to temporarily suspend business in the short term (accounting for 81.5%).

International News

In a report released on January 30, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects global GDP to grow by 3.1% in 2024 (+0.2 percentage points compared to the October 2023 forecast). The main reason is the changing outlook for the US and China.

Specifically, the organization forecasts that among developed countries, the US GDP in 2024 will increase by 2.1% (+0.6 percentage points), but the Eurozone will only increase by 0.9% (-0.3 percentage points), Japan will increase by 0.9% (-0.1 percentage points) and the UK will increase by 0.6% (unchanged). For developing countries, China's GDP is forecast to increase by 4.6% this year (+0.4 percentage points), India will increase by 6.5% (+0.2 percentage points).

Accordingly, the IMF believes that the risk of a global hard landing is decreasing over time, despite new risks arising in the Middle East causing supply chain disruptions and rising commodity prices.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) did not change its policy interest rate at its first meeting of the year. At the meeting held yesterday, January 31, the Fed commented that the US economy has grown quite rapidly recently. Inflation has shown a slowdown throughout 2023, but is still at a high level. The Fed showed its determination to achieve full employment and return inflation to 2.0% in the long run.

Accordingly, the agency decided to keep the policy interest rate unchanged at 5.25% - 5.50% in this meeting to achieve the above target. The Fed also affirmed that it will continue to carefully assess economic and inflation data in the coming time to make appropriate decisions on monetary policy. In addition, the Fed is also ready to change its stance on monetary policy if risks arise that hinder the achievement of the inflation target.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) said the headline consumer price index (CPI) in the country increased by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2023, lower than the 1.2% in the previous quarter and also lower than the forecast of 0.8%. In December 2023 alone, the headline CPI increased by only 3.4% year-on-year, a sharp deceleration from 4.3% in November and also lower than the forecast of 3.7%.

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