What happens if Trump is arrested?

Former US President Donald Trump (Photo: Reuters).

On March 18, in a status posted on the social network Truth Social, former US President Donald Trump warned that leaked documents from the Manhattan District Attorney's office in New York showed that he could be arrested on Tuesday, March 21. Although he did not state the charges that led to his arrest, former President Trump called on his supporters to protest the charges of prosecutors in New York.

"Protest, take back our country," Trump wrote.

Observers say that the arrest of the former President - if it happens - could have huge impacts not only on the political system but also on the entire American society.

The origin of the incident

According to Reuters , the accusation of paying hush money to porn star Stormy Daniels is the cause of the indictment that could lead to Mr. Trump's arrest.

Former adult film actress Stormy Daniels gives an interview after a meeting with authorities in New York (Photo: NYT).

Stormy Daniels, born Stephanie Clifford, claims to have had sex with Mr Trump in Nevada in 2006, when Mr Trump was married to Melania.

To silence Stormy ahead of his 2016 presidential campaign, former President Trump reportedly paid the former porn star about $130,000 in hush money. This information was revealed to authorities by Michael Cohen, Trump's former personal lawyer, before he was sentenced to 3 years in prison for various crimes.

After being caught up in the law, the relationship between Mr. Cohen and his former client Donald Trump broke down. The former lawyer repeatedly claimed that Mr. Trump was the one who ordered him to pay off at least two women to avoid influencing the 2016 White House race. Mr. Cohen also blamed the former President for abandoning him, even though the two had been a pair during Cohen's time as vice president of the Trump Organization.

"Of course Donald Trump knew that ordering payments to porn star Stormy Daniels and Playboy model Karen McDougal, two women who claimed to have had affairs with him, in exchange for their silence on election night, was wrong," Mr. Cohen said in an interview in 2018.

President Trump's former personal lawyer Michael Cohen (Photo: Reuters).

Cohen also provided authorities with copies of checks made to adult actress Stormy Daniels. Although denied by Trump and his legal team, Cohen’s actions are considered to have become an important part of the evidence in the investigation by New York state prosecutors against former President Trump.

According to Reuters, last week, Alvin Bragg, the chief prosecutor of Manhattan, officially submitted to the court some evidence that the former US President paid $ 130,000 in exchange for Stormy Daniels' silence. At the same time, Mr. Trump received a summons to appear before a grand jury in Manhattan to corroborate previous statements.

The grand jury appearance also means an indictment appears imminent for former President Trump.

What happens if Trump is arrested?

US President Donald Trump surrounded by Secret Service agents during a visit to Arizona in 2017 (Photo: AP).

On March 18, Joe Tacopina, President Trump's personal lawyer, asserted that if an arrest warrant is issued, Trump will not resist and will appear. If he cooperates, experts say the former US President will soon be released on bail. If he refuses to comply with the summons, New York state prosecutors will order Trump to be extradited from his residence.

According to Reuters news agency, in cases involving such famous figures, the defendant's lawyer often has an agreement with the prosecutor on the specific place and time that the defendant will appear before the authorities.

Observers say the real legal battle will take place if an arrest warrant is issued for former President Trump. The former President is currently living with his family at the Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. Therefore, if this rare case happens, Governor Ron DeSantis, Mr. Trump's biggest rival in the Republican primary, will be the one to sign the decision allowing New York prosecutors to execute the warrant to extradite the former President.

Former Manhattan Assistant District Attorney Karen Agnifilo revealed that the average time it takes for a criminal case in New York to move from indictment to trial is about a year. However, if indicted, Mr. Trump's case could take longer with the intervention of the former President's legal team.

Mr. Trump's experienced lawyers will certainly find every way to collect evidence to prove their client's innocence, thereby causing the indictment against the former President to be dismissed.

If detained, Mr. Trump will be presumed innocent until a final court decision is made. However, certain court restrictions may be imposed on the former President during this time.

If indicted, this would be a disadvantage for Mr. Trump in competing for the Republican nomination in the 2024 election. According to the latest surveys, Mr. Trump is still ahead of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. However, this gap will be closed if Mr. Trump's election campaigns cannot go according to plan.

The threat of prosecution in New York could also lead to further investigations into Trump. The former US president is currently facing charges related to the riot at Capitol Hill in January 2021, suspected election interference in Georgia and some scandals about his family's private business. These legal troubles could end the political future of the 45th President of the United States.

Contrasting voices

Experts say that if Mr. Trump is arrested, it could become a new crisis for the United States.

There are concerns that large-scale protests similar to the riots on Capitol Hill will occur by extremist supporters of Mr. Trump. Some sources said that immediately after Mr. Trump called for protests on March 18, the New York Police Department, the US Secret Service, and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) counterterrorism force drew up plans to protect against the extremist crowd.

To calm public opinion, the leader of the Republican Party in Congress , House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, had to speak out and call on Trump supporters to stay calm. "I don't think people should protest. Stay calm," said Mr. McCarthy.

However, Mr. McCarthy also spoke out to defend Mr. Trump, warning that any indictment against former President Trump would represent "outrageous abuse of power" by the Manhattan district attorney's office.

If Mr. Trump is arrested, this will also have a major impact on the US presidential election in 2024, when he is a highly influential candidate. Many famous people, including billionaire Elon Musk, even think that being arrested could increase support for Mr. Trump in the upcoming election. Sharing the same view with billionaire Musk, some experts think that Mr. Trump could receive sympathy from the public under the image of "victim of a political attack plot".

"This investigation has brought a lot of sympathy for the former president. I had coffee with a number of friends this morning, none of whom are big Trump supporters. But all of my friends said they felt Trump was being politically attacked," said New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, a Republican.

In response to the support for Mr. Trump, members of the Democratic Party criticized the former President for inciting violence in his statement on March 18.

"Whatever the grand jury decides, it means they have made a clear choice: No one is above the law, not even the former President of the United States. Mr. Trump's statement this morning was reckless. He did it just to make his name better and to cause outrage among his supporters," former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi emphasized on March 19.

Sharing the same view with Ms. Pelosi, Democratic Congressman Ted Lieu accused former President Trump of "disrespecting the law" with his statement on March 18.

"Does he know what the charges are? Has he seen the evidence from the grand jury? The answer is: No. He is showing himself to be the most cowardly politician and has no respect for the law. In America, no individual is above the law," Mr. Lieu declared.

According to Reuters , the mixed criticism and support for the former President shows that Mr. Trump's arrest could have many consequences not only for politics but also for American society. Its effects are likely to exacerbate partisan conflicts, one of the biggest problems facing the US. In addition, the risk of instability could also affect the US presidential election in 2024.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/the-gioi/dieu-gi-se-xay-ra-neu-ong-trump-bi-bat-20230320164303465.htm