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Gold price forecast after 2 consecutive weeks of decline

(Dan Tri) - Domestic gold prices fell across the board before closing the week in the context of world prices "evaporating" 2.8%, down to a one-month low.

Báo Dân tríBáo Dân trí29/06/2025

At the end of the trading week from June 23 to June 29, SJC gold bar prices were listed by large enterprises at 117.2-119.2 million VND/tael (buy - sell).

Last week, the highest price of SJC gold bars was recorded at 118-120 million VND/tael (buy - sell) on June 27. Thus, compared to the peak price last week, both buying and selling prices have decreased by 800,000 VND/tael.

The price of plain gold rings closed last week at 113.2-115.7 million VND/tael (buy - sell), down 600,000 VND/tael in both buying and selling before closing the week.

Dự báo giá vàng sau 2 tuần giảm liên tục - 1

Gold prices have had a sharp week of decline (Photo: Manh Quan).

Domestic gold prices fell across the board at the end of the week, following the international market. At the close of trading this week, the world spot price fell by $52 to $3,272/ounce. This is the lowest level in a month. In total, the price fell by 2.8% for the week, marking the second consecutive week of price declines.

The announcement that the US had signed a trade deal with China caused demand for safe-haven gold to plummet. In addition, in the Middle East, the ceasefire between Iran and Israel remained in place, despite some incidents on the first day.

"Investors are taking profits as geopolitical tensions ease," said Daniel Pavilonis, market strategist at brokerage RJO Futures.

In the US, new data showed that consumer spending unexpectedly fell in May, as demand for pre-tax purchases gradually declined. Inflation remained under control, with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rising 2.7% in May.

Investors are now expecting the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates from September. Low interest rates will benefit gold, as this instrument does not pay fixed interest.

Daniel Pavilonis expects geopolitical and tariff factors to continue to cool, despite growing expectations of Fed rate cuts and concerns about Fed independence.

“I think this trend will continue, especially if there are some trade deals coming out, then geopolitical risks may be pushed aside. The demand for gold that has been strong over the past few months may cool off, and oil prices may also go down,” he said.

In the long term, he said, gold prices will continue to rise. However, in recent months, I have not seen a significant flow of gold buying orders. Instead, some profit-taking activities will appear. Although there is no clear short selling force, this factor is still present in the market.

“The reason why money flows into or out of the USD is also the reason why money flows into or out of gold as a safe haven asset. Now, everything is gradually returning to normal , and the need for refuge in gold or USD is no longer urgent,” he analyzed.

“We could see a correction that extends into the next week or so,” said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management. “The ceasefire between Israel and Iran, the new trade agreements that are being promised, and the hawkish tone from Fed Chair Powell, all of these are putting downward pressure on gold. So the trend is to the downside.”

This week, of the 17 analysts participating in Kitco's survey, 6 experts, or 35%, said that gold prices will rise next week, 9 experts, or 53%, predicted that the precious metal will fall, while the remaining 2, or 12%, predicted that gold prices will go sideways.

Meanwhile, of the 231 individual investors who participated in the online survey, 119 people, or 51.5%, expected prices to rise, 63 people (27.2%) predicted prices to fall, while the remaining 49 investors (21.3%) believed prices would fluctuate within a narrow range.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/du-bao-gia-vang-sau-2-tuan-giam-lien-tuc-20250629002042856.htm


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