Fed suddenly changes direction, bitcoin and crypto market hold their breath waiting for new wave

(Dan Tri) - Bitcoin's shocking crash last weekend left the crypto market in disarray. Will the Fed's sudden reversal save the world's largest digital currency?

After reaching a historic peak of $126,000 per bitcoin in October, bitcoin is experiencing a "breathless" period with an unprecedented plunge. In just a few weeks, the world's largest digital currency has lost nearly 40% of its value, pushing its market capitalization down by trillions of dollars and causing investors to fall into a state of extreme panic.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $86,000 per bitcoin, having just escaped the $80,000 per bitcoin zone, but all eyes are still on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) - the agency that could decide the fate of this currency in the final weeks of the year. Observers call this a "policy earthquake" that is taking shape, promising to have a profound impact on the crypto market.

Bitcoin has recovered slightly after a strong sell-off over the weekend when the coin plunged close to the $80,000 mark (Photo: Cryptodnes).

The terrible crash and the fear of crypto winter

A testament to the severity of the recent correction is the 1.1 million BTC fortune of Satoshi Nakamoto - the mysterious father of Bitcoin.

According to on-chain data from Arkham Intelligence, the value of this portfolio has dropped from nearly $139 billion to $96 billion. More than $42 billion has been “evaporated” in just a few weeks, causing Satoshi to fall from 11th to 20th place on the list of the richest people on the planet (if officially ranked), right behind Bill Gates.

Satoshi's story is not just a statistic but also reflects the general pain of the whole market: When the biggest "whale" also lost up to 1/3 of its assets, panic among small investors is understandable.

Technical analysts are warning of a “death zone” that bitcoin needs to overcome. Vasily Girya, CEO of GIS Mining, emphasized: “The $87,000 mark per bitcoin is a key barrier. If the price does not break and maintain above this level before the US market opens early next week, we may face a prolonged period of stagnation, or in other words, the beginning of a new crypto winter.”

According to Mr. Girya, to truly restore confidence, bitcoin needs a strong bounce back to the $93,000/bitcoin area. The market is currently in a "hesitant" state, as bottom-fishing demand has appeared around $80,600/bitcoin but is not strong enough to create a clear trend reversal.

Hope from the Fed and year-end opportunities

Amid the storm, a glimmer of hope emerged from the Fed. Data from CME FedWatch showed that the probability of the agency cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting jumped from 39% to 70% overnight, due to unexpectedly dovish comments from Fed officials, despite US employment data still showing the economy is heating up.

New York Fed President John Williams signaled a calming tone to the market, telling the Wall Street Journal: “I still see the need for some near-term adjustments to bring the federal funds rate closer to neutral. The goal is to bring inflation to 2% sustainably without risking the labor market.”

Analysts say the Fed’s change in tone is a timely “painkiller.” If cheap money returns in December, selling pressure could ease, paving the way for a year-end recovery.

Not everyone is pessimistic. Nicholas Roberts-Huntley, CEO of Blueprint Finance, sees the recent crash as a necessary “cleansing”: “Resets like this help remove excess leverage. The fundamentals of bitcoin have not changed. I expect the market to stabilize in the $95,000-$110,000/bitcoin range and break out by the end of the year if macroeconomic factors support it.”

Major financial institutions are still betting on medium- and long-term growth. JPMorgan predicts that bitcoin will compete directly with gold in 2026. Experts from Russia and the Kiln platform agree that if the Fed ends its quantitative tightening program in December, it will be the “trigger” for a new growth cycle.

Andreas Brekken, founder of SideShift.ai, is optimistic: “The current panic is a sign of ‘capitulation’ from retail investors. This is usually a bottom signal before a real strong bull run begins in Q1/2026.”

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/fed-bat-ngo-doi-huong-bitcoin-va-thi-truong-crypto-nin-tho-cho-song-moi-20251124090712624.htm