Arabica coffee prices are "supported", robusta inventories are high, supply and demand forecast for 2025?

Coffee price today 12/1/2025

World coffee prices increased sharply for Arabica, slightly adjusted down for Robusta.

Domestic coffee prices reversed and decreased by 400 - 500 VND/kg at the end of the week, moving away from the 120,000 VND/kg mark, currently trading in the range of 118,300 - 119,000 VND/kg.

The two reasons for the mixed international coffee prices are a large build-up in inventories on the London exchange, while rains have eased in Brazil’s major coffee growing regions. Dry weather in Brazil has supported arabica prices, after the Somar Meteorologia agency reported earlier this week that Brazil’s largest arabica growing region, Minas Gerais, received 62.5 mm of rain last week, or 86% of the historical average. Traders said last year’s dry weather in Brazil is expected to reduce the 2025/26 crop and could support coffee prices in the coming months.

Meanwhile, robusta prices are under downward pressure as qualified inventories start to build. Coffee exports from Vietnam are improving significantly in January 2025 compared to the same month last year, temporarily preventing robusta prices from skyrocketing in the first quarter of the new year.

Vietnam's General Department of Customs reported that Vietnam's coffee exports in December doubled from the previous month, reaching 127,655 tons. However, this figure was still 38.5% lower than the same period in 2023. In 2024, Vietnam exported a total of more than 1.34 million tons of coffee of all kinds, a sharp decrease of 17.1% compared to 2023. However, due to high prices, the value of the turnover reached a record of 5.6 billion USD, exceeding the previous record of 2023 by 32.5%.

According to the latest forecast from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), global coffee production is expected to recover in the 2024-2025 crop year, mainly due to increased output in Vietnam and Indonesia. Meanwhile, with consumption rising, global coffee inventories at the end of 2024 will decline further, to 20.9 million bags.

Domestic coffee prices on January 11 decreased by 400-500 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: praguemonitor)

According to World & Vietnam , at the end of this weekend's trading session (January 10), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange for delivery in March 2025 decreased by 13 USD, trading at 4,966 USD/ton. The delivery in May 2025 decreased by 12 USD, trading at 4,879 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange continued to increase sharply, with the March 2025 delivery term up 5.35 cents, trading at 323.85 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the May 2025 delivery term increased 5.10 cents, trading at 319.80 cents/lb. Trading volume was high.

Domestic coffee prices on January 11 decreased by 400 - 500 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg

Average price	Medium
USD/VND exchange rate	25,168	0
DAK LAK	119,000	– 500
LAM DONG	118,300	– 400
GIA LAI	118,800	– 500
DAK NONG	119,000	– 500

(Source: giacaphe.com)

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) forecasts that by 2025, global coffee supply and demand will undergo significant changes. The market in 2025 may face a situation of oversupply, especially in emerging markets, and this may impact coffee prices in the near future.

:Global coffee demand is expected to continue to grow, especially in emerging markets such as China and India, where coffee consumption habits are on the rise. However, declining consumption in developed countries may limit this growth somewhat.

Global coffee production is forecast to rise slightly to around 175 million 60kg bags in 2025. The recovery is expected to come from leading producers such as Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia and Indonesia, with Brazil in particular recovering from years affected by the biennial cycle and adverse weather conditions. Climate change is likely to remain a significant factor in coffee yields, particularly in major coffee growing regions, making supplies uncertain.

Meanwhile, global coffee consumption is forecast to reach around 177 million bags in 2025, with growth mainly in emerging markets such as China, India, and Southeast Asian countries, where coffee is increasingly becoming a part of people's consumption habits. Developed markets, especially in Europe and North America, are likely to maintain stable consumption levels or experience a slight decline due to changes in consumption habits (switching to other drinks, such as tea or decaffeinated soft drinks).

The ICO predicts a slight shortage in coffee supply by 2025, as demand outpaces production. This could put pressure on global coffee prices, with the potential for prices to rise if the shortage persists.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-1212025-gia-ca-phe-arabica-duoc-tro-luc-ton-kho-robusta-ve-nhieu-du-bao-cung-cau-nam-2025-300505.html