Coffee prices recover strongly

According to MXV, at the end of the trading session on December 4, the industrial raw materials market witnessed red covering most of the commodities in the group. In particular, two coffee commodities became bright spots when going against the general trend of the whole group.

Specifically, Arabica coffee prices recorded an impressive increase of more than 2.1% to 8,388 USD/ton, while Robusta coffee prices also increased by nearly 0.5% to 4,232 USD/ton.

The rise in Arabica prices has been supported by a supply shortage in Brazil, which is pushing exports to a record 50.5 million bags in 2024, putting its domestic inventories in serious trouble.

Data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC) shows that in the first 10 months of the year, Brazil exported only about 34.2 million bags, down 17.8% compared to the same period in 2024, further strengthening the upward momentum.

Meanwhile, Conab said that after the harvest in Brazil ended in September, Minas Gerais – the largest coffee-producing state – recorded 25.17 million bags of Arabica, down 9.2% from the previous season, due to the adverse biennial cycle and a long period of drought before flowering. In São Paulo, production fell 12.9% to an estimated 4.7 million bags, due to the biological impact of the low cycle and adverse climatic conditions such as drought and high temperatures.

Climatempo forecasts that drought and high temperatures will continue to grip Brazil’s main coffee growing regions next week. Farmer Rafael Stefani in the Alta Mogiana region expressed concern that the combination of lack of rain and intense heat will negatively impact the ripening process of the fruit, threatening the quality of the 2026 crop.

In addition, the global Robusta supply picture is still full of concerns as the weather situation in Vietnam remains extremely complicated. Prolonged heavy rains causing widespread flooding in the Central Highlands are seriously affecting the progress and quality of the crop. Although farmers have harvested 50%-60% of the output, storms and rains have made drying difficult and many fruits have fallen. Market sources estimate that storms and floods could reduce Vietnam's coffee output by about 5% to 10%.

Source: https://vtv.vn/gia-ca-phe-phuc-hoi-manh-me-100251205144750878.htm