Robusta coffee prices increased sharply at the end of the week, speculators manipulated the market, forecasting abundant output in 2025?

Robusta coffee prices are forecast to end 2025 at $4,200 per tonne, down 28% from the close on Feb. 12 and down 14% for the year. The average forecast for arabica coffee prices at the end of 2025 is $2.95 per lb, down 30% from the close on Feb. 12 and down 6% from the end of 2024, according to Reuters.

Coffee price today 22/2/2025

World coffee prices fluctuated in opposite directions at the end of the week, robusta increased again, while arabica continued to decrease.

Domestic coffee prices increased sharply at the end of the week, increasing from 1,800 - 2,000 VND/kg, currently trading in the range of 133,000 - 134,000 VND/kg. Vietnam's coffee exports in the first half of February 2025 reached 74,737 tons; an increase of 1.2% compared to the first half of January 2025 and a sharp increase of 21.1% compared to the same period in 2024.

Analysts say the market is being manipulated by speculators, as inventory on the floor fluctuates sharply, causing prices to fluctuate erratically during the session.

Arabica coffee prices appear to have lost steam after hitting a record high of nearly $4.30 a pound last week. Arabica coffee prices have now hit a two-week low as inventories recover, putting pressure on long-term contracts in the arabica futures market to liquidate, traders said. Roasters are holding sufficient stocks after heavy buying in recent weeks, while speculators are taking profits.

Traders said data showed roasters were likely to have enough coffee at this point, after buying heavily in recent weeks as they lost hope of a drop in prices. Meanwhile, bulls were taking profits or selling on every rise in the market, avoiding over-investing in coffee, Reuters reported.

Arabica prices are unlikely to fall significantly in the short term, given the outlook for a smaller 2025/26 crop in top grower Brazil. Traders also said the focus remains on Brazil’s 2025/26 crop outlook, with arabica output expected to fall sharply due to dry weather last year. A Brazilian brokerage reported that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production is expected to reach 59.75 million bags. That would be about 8% lower than the current crop.

High arabica prices have prompted roasters to switch to cheaper robusta, pushing prices up.

Meanwhile, in the world's leading source of Arabica, according to data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs, Vietnam's coffee exports in the first 15 days of February reached 74,737 tons, up 1.2% compared to the first half of January and up 21.1% compared to the same period in 2024. However, the cumulative amount of coffee exported from the beginning of the year to February 15 was only 210,610 tons, down 29.7% compared to the same period last year. However, the export turnover increased by 25.4% to 1.16 billion USD.

December 2024 also saw coffee exports from Asia and Oceania fall 31.2% year-on-year to 3.3 million bags. This was largely due to a 39.5% drop in Vietnam’s exports to 2.1 million bags – the lowest December figure since 2014. The double-digit decline in Vietnam’s exports could be due to tight domestic supplies, despite the 2024-25 harvest having begun in October. According to the ICO, there is typically a four-month lag between the start of harvest and the arrival of coffee in importing countries, meaning that any potential increase in exports may not be felt until at least February’s trade figures.

ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories have risen 3.9% over the past three trading sessions to 787,999 bags on Feb. 21, recovering from a nine-month low of 758,514 bags on Feb. 18.

Meanwhile, robusta coffee inventories monitored by ICE hit a more than four-month high of 4,603 lots on Jan. 31, but then fell to a more than one-month low of 4,297 lots on Feb. 18. As of Friday, robusta inventories stood at 4,322 lots.

Domestic coffee prices today, February 2, increased by 1,800 - 2,000 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Broadcastcoffee)

According to the World & Vietnam , at the end of this weekend's trading session (February 21), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange for delivery in March 2025 increased by 71 USD, trading at 5,712 USD/ton. The delivery in May 2025 increased by 62 USD, trading at 5,717 USD/ton. The average trading volume was low.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange, delivery term May 2025 continued to decrease by 0.65 cents, trading at 389.25 cents/lb. Meanwhile, delivery term July 2025 decreased by 0.65 cents, trading at 378.90 cents/lb. Trading volume is high.

Domestic coffee prices today, February 2, increased by 1,800 - 2,000 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg

Average price	Medium
USD/VND exchange rate	25,290	+ 20
DAK LAK	134,000	+ 2,000
LAM DONG	133,000	+ 2,000
GIA LAI	134,000	+ 2,000
DAK NONG	134,000	+ 1,800

(Source: giacaphe.com)

Arabica coffee prices could fall sharply this year after a recent meteoric rise, some experts predict. Arabica coffee futures are expected to fall about 30% by the end of 2025, as recent record prices could dampen demand while early signs point to a bumper crop in Brazil next year, according to a Reuters poll released on Feb. 13.

The poll found that the average forecast for arabica prices by the end of 2025 was $2.95/lb, down 30% from the February 12 close and 6% from the end of 2024. The very high prices will slow demand. Coffee prices have been boosted by the prospect of a smaller arabica crop in top producer Brazil in the upcoming 2025/26 season. The average forecast for Brazil’s arabica coffee production in 2025/26 is 40.55 million bags, down from 43.4 million bags in the previous season.

However, some pollsters pointed to the possibility of a larger crop in 2026-27. If Brazil survives the frost/rain period without damage, it could have a bumper crop in 2026-27. Arabica coffee prices were among the strongest performing commodity markets in 2024, up about 70%, and have continued to rise this year, hitting a record high of $4.2995 on February 11.

Brazil’s total coffee output is forecast to decline to 64.6 million bags from 66.4 million bags in 2024-25, with a slight increase in robusta conillon output partly offsetting the decline in arabica.

Robusta prices are forecast to end 2025 at $4,200 a tonne, down 28% from the February 12 close and down 14% for the year. Brazil’s robusta output is forecast to rise to 24.5 million bags in 2025-26, up from 21 million bags in the previous season.

In Vietnam – the world’s leading robusta producer – output is also forecast to increase to 29 million bags, from 28 million bags in the 2024-2025 crop year.

The majority of the world’s coffee comes from the “coffee belt” – a geographical area along the equator, between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn. From this area, the top 10 producing countries control nearly 90% of the total global coffee supply each year.

Brazil is the world’s largest coffee producer, accounting for 38% of global supply, while Vietnam is second at 17%. The two countries produce more than half of all coffee each year (55%), with a combined output of nearly 5.8 million tonnes in 2024, and are also the largest coffee exporters.

Brazil mainly produces arabica coffee, while Vietnam specializes in robusta, which is more heat-tolerant. Colombia - the third largest coffee producer - is one of the few countries in the world that grows only arabica coffee thanks to its favorable climate.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-2222025-gia-ca-phe-robusta-tang-manh-phien-cuoi-tuan-gioi-dau-co-thao-tung-thi-truong-du-bao-san-luong-doi-dao-vao-nam-2025-305182.html