An unusual phenomenon is that during the harvest season, Vietnam's coffee export output has decreased sharply. The sharp decline in the US dollar has helped coffee on both exchanges continue to increase. There may be no shortage of goods, but high prices have reduced export output. Robusta prices are likely to remain high in the near future, according to experts.
Coffee price today 11/28/2024
World coffee prices unexpectedly increased in a series of consecutive increases since the beginning of the week, on both the London and New York exchanges. Robusta coffee prices broke the record and set a new peak at 5,533 USD/ton, with futures prices increasing by nearly 8% in just one trading session. Arabica coffee prices reached a 47-year high.
Domestic coffee prices have been steadily rising during the harvest season, currently trading at a "dream" price for coffee farmers, between VND126,500 - 127,100/kg.
The soaring coffee prices reflect the world’s investors’ forecast of a future shortage. World prices have soared as the crop seasons in Vietnam and Brazil have shown negative signs. In Vietnam, the situation is a crop failure, slow harvest due to weather; in Brazil, the prolonged heat has caused difficulties for production and forecasts of a crop failure in the next crop.
Farmers in Brazil, which produces nearly half the world’s arabica coffee, have sold about 70% of the current crop and are in no rush to sell ahead of next year’s crop, expecting prices to rise even higher, according to traders and industry experts. To some extent, arabica and robusta are substitutes, so shortages of one typically boost demand and prices for the other.
According to Reuters , next year's crop in Brazil appears to have lost some of its potential due to drought earlier this year, with soil moisture levels still low despite recent rains. There are also concerns that the current coffee flowers may not attach to the branches and form cherries to produce a good harvest.
Logistical bottlenecks also continue to hamper Brazilian coffee exports. Data from the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (Cecafé) shows that up to 1.7 million bags of green coffee (equivalent to 5,203 containers) are still stuck at Brazilian ports due to infrastructure constraints, according to Comunicaffe.
Meanwhile, in the world’s leading source of robusta, farmers appear to be in no rush to sell despite the peak harvest. They are not under financial pressure, so they are not in a rush to harvest or sell their coffee beans, according to local traders. There are also concerns that the harvest in Vietnam could be delayed due to heavy rains.
In financial markets, the US dollar fell sharply ahead of the US holiday season, as investors assessed the risks from tariff policies that US President-elect Donald Trump may implement after taking office.
In addition, the latest development on the possibility of a definite postponement of the implementation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is still facing obstacles. The Council and the EU Parliament failed to reach an agreement on November 21. The next round of negotiations is scheduled for next week (December 3). If the negotiations fail, the deadline for implementing the law will return to the original date of December 31, 2024.
A combination of factors is weighing on the coffee market, trading firm Sucafina said, with concerns that producers may default on their commitments or delay deliveries, coupled with rising hedging costs due to higher margin requirements, causing panic, prompting traders to close out their hedged positions by buying futures contracts.
This year’s rally has been accompanied by funds holding large bets on higher prices, with net long positions in arabica, while not at their peaks earlier this year, still at historic highs, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
 |
| Domestic coffee prices on November 27 continued to increase sharply by 2,200 - 2,500 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Cadillaccoffee) |
According to World & Vietnam , at the end of the trading session on November 27, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London continued to increase sharply, the delivery term for January 2025 increased by 358 USD, trading at 5,533 USD/ton. The delivery term for March 2025 increased by 382 USD, trading at 5,496 USD/ton. The average trading volume was high.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange increased continuously, with the March 2025 delivery period increasing by 14.20 cents, trading at 323.05 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the May 2025 delivery period increased by 14.40 cents, trading at 320.70 cents/lb. Trading volume was high.
Domestic coffee prices on November 27 continued to increase sharply by 2,200 - 2,500 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg
(Source: giacaphe.com) |
According to statistics from the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), in the first 15 days of November, Vietnam's coffee exports only reached 20,933 tons, a sharp decrease of 44.8% compared to the same period last year.
This shows that the supply from the new harvest has not been brought into the market as much as in previous years.
Accumulated from the beginning of the year to November 15, Vietnam exported 1.17 million tons of coffee with a turnover of 4.7 billion USD, down 13.5% in volume but up 38.1% in value compared to the same period in 2023.
One of the issues that the coffee industry is currently concerned about is building and developing specialty coffee with unique Vietnamese characteristics to increase the value of the industry chain and so that every time Vietnamese coffee is mentioned, world consumers will remember these types of coffee.
The price of specialty coffee is often many times higher than that of regular coffee. At the auction held on August 18, a batch of specialty Arabica coffee was sold for 1.2 million VND/kg, 4 times higher than the regular type.
Vicofa said that in recent years, Vietnam has paid attention to specialty coffee, but the quantity is still too modest. Currently, the proportion of high-quality coffee and specialty coffee accounts for too small a proportion of the large output of Vietnamese coffee.
Regarding this issue, in 2021, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development issued Decision No. 1392/QD-BNN-TT approving the Project on developing Vietnamese specialty coffee for the period 2021-2030. The project is implemented in 8 provinces: Dien Bien, Son La, Kon Tum, Gia Lai, Dak Lak, Dak Nong , Lam Dong and Quang Tri.
In the period of 2021-2025, the area of specialty coffee is targeted to reach 11,500 hectares, accounting for about 2% of the total coffee area; specialty coffee output is about 5,000 tons. In the period of 2026-2030, the area is targeted to reach 19,000 hectares, accounting for about 3% of Vietnam's coffee area; specialty coffee output is about 11,000 tons. In this orientation, Vietnam develops both specialty Arabica and Robusta lines. However, the Robusta line is focused more because it is suitable for the existing basic weather conditions.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-28112024-gia-ca-phe-tang-dot-bien-robusta-tang-gan-400-usd-moi-dinh-cao-da-bi-pha-vo-dieu-gi-dang-xay-ra-295341.html
![[Photo] National Assembly Chairman Tran Thanh Man visits Vietnamese Heroic Mother Ta Thi Tran](https://vphoto.vietnam.vn/thumb/1200x675/vietnam/resource/IMAGE/2025/7/20/765c0bd057dd44ad83ab89fe0255b783)
Comment (0)