Coffee price today 11/25/2024
Global coffee prices rose unusually sharply last week as major suppliers such as Brazil have just finished their peak harvest and Vietnam is in the midst of its peak season. Meanwhile, supply forecasts for this year’s crop have improved in many countries.
According to World & Vietnam , at the end of this weekend's trading session (November 22), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange increased sharply, with the delivery term for January 2025 increasing by 198 USD, trading at 4,985 USD/ton. The delivery term for March 2025 increased by 191 USD, trading at 4,923 USD/ton. The average trading volume was high.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange continued to increase, with the December 2024 delivery period up 6.4 cents, trading at 302.10 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the March 2025 delivery period increased 6.45 cents, trading at 299.60 cents/lb. Trading volume was high.
Thus, last week, the price of Robusta coffee futures for January 2025 had 3 sessions of price reduction with a total of 128 USD, although there were only 2 sessions of increase, but they were 2 sessions of strong increase with a total increase of 340 USD. Therefore, the whole week, the market still increased by 212 USD/ton, causing the closing price at the end of the week to only 15 USD, reaching the historical milestone of 5,000 USD/ton.
On the New York floor, Arabica coffee prices also increased sharply, reaching a new record. The December 2024 delivery period increased by 140.8 USD to 6,650 USD/ton last week, the March 2025 delivery period increased by 141.9 USD to 6,610 USD/ton, and the May 2025 delivery period increased by 117.7 USD to 6,500 USD/ton.
The Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (Cecafe) said that the country's green coffee export volume in October reached 274,000 tons, up 10.5% over the same period last year. Of which, Arabica coffee reached 222,000 tons, up 7.5% and Robusta reached 52,000 tons, up 27% over the same period in 2023. In the first 4 months of this year's crop (July 2024 - June 2025), Brazil exported 934,000 tons of coffee, up over 18% over the previous crop.
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| Domestic coffee prices on November 23 increased sharply by VND2,000/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: doanhnhan.biz) |
Domestic coffee prices increased by more than VND4,000/kg last week, up VND10,000/kg after 2 weeks. Although it is harvest season, domestic coffee prices are still increasing strongly and approaching VND118,000/kg, the current price helps farmers earn good profits.
November and December are the peak harvest months for Vietnamese coffee, the world's largest source of robusta coffee, but the sharp decline in coffee export output is a very strange thing in the market. A coffee expert explained that this year's coffee crop did not arrive late, causing a shortage, but mainly due to high prices, resulting in a decrease in export output. In addition, coffee output has decreased sharply due to many intercropping gardens, so coffee productivity has not decreased, but the number of coffee trees in each garden has decreased.
Reality shows that in the near future, the price of robusta coffee will likely continue to remain high despite many macroeconomic factors showing the opposite, such as: the total global coffee volume increasing, and the European anti-deforestation regulation (EUDR) being postponed for 1 year.
Domestic coffee prices on November 23 increased sharply by VND 2,000/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg
(Source: giacaphe.com) |
Before the harvest, many coffee industry entrepreneurs predicted that the price of coffee at the beginning of the season, with abundant supply, would drop to around $4,000/ton, but in reality the market did not turn out like that.
Currently, coffee prices fluctuate unpredictably, many businesses choose to fix short-term prices, buy as much as they want, sell as much as they want, avoiding signing contracts with fixed prices but long delivery times to avoid risks.
The biggest expectations are for Vietnam’s crop, which is now being harvested. The USDA ’s June forecast of 29 million bags—27.85 million of which are robusta—is considered highly optimistic and will likely be revised downward, as has been the case with Brazil’s crop estimate. Some traders have pointed to a Vietnamese robusta crop of as little as 24 million bags.
Meanwhile, some Vietnamese traders who buy directly from farmers said that the amount they are buying at the moment is only about one-fifth of the same period last season. The balance between supply and demand is still unbalanced, with no hope of major changes at least in the near future, so it seems certain that coffee prices will remain high. Climate issues continue to pose a global threat, damaging coffee production in all major producing countries.
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