Accumulated from the beginning of the year to November 15, Vietnam exported over 1.17 million tons of coffee, with an export turnover of 4.7 billion USD, down 13.5% in volume but up 38.1% in value compared to the same period last year. Of which, Robusta exports were the mainstay, reaching 964,610 tons, with a turnover of 3.48 billion USD.
Coffee price today 11/23/2024
World coffee prices increased sharply on both London and New York exchanges after a volatile session on November 2. Robusta coffee prices increased by nearly 200 USD, approaching the threshold of 5,000 USD/ton.
Domestic coffee prices have been increasing gradually this week, currently trading in the range of 115,000 - 115,500. This year, climate change has caused drought in some coffee growing areas in Vietnam, affecting the growth of the trees, leading to lower yields than last year.
This week, world coffee prices continued to rise due to many reasons, including the impact of climate change, the El Nino phenomenon causing drought across coffee growing regions around the world, leading to a decrease in supply. In addition, military conflicts around the world also increased transportation costs and many other costs in export.
World coffee prices this crop year are also high due to concerns that export output from the two largest coffee exporting countries, Vietnam and Brazil, will decrease sharply in the coming time. Brazil's coffee output in the 2025-2026 crop year is forecast to decrease by 0.4% compared to the current crop due to the impact of prolonged drought during the flowering period.
Vietnamese coffee prices are currently the highest in the world. With concerns about supply shortages, while Vietnam is the world's largest producer and exporter of robusta, robusta prices have continued to rise and hit new highs. Vietnam's coffee output in the 2024-2025 crop year is also forecast to decrease by 10-15% compared to the previous crop year.
However, in previous years, export volume in November usually increased gradually as farmers entered the main harvest period, but this year's figures are quite unusual as coffee prices increased but export output decreased sharply.
According to statistics from the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), in the first 15 days of November, coffee exports from Vietnam, the world's largest producer and exporter of robusta, only reached 20,933 tons, equivalent to a turnover of 121.8 million USD, down 44.8% in volume but up 1.8% in value compared to the same period last year. This shows that the supply from the new harvest has not been brought to the market as much as in previous years.
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| Domestic coffee prices on November 22 increased slightly by VND200/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: aivivu) |
According to World & Vietnam , at the end of the trading session on November 22, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange increased sharply, the delivery term for January 2025 increased by 195 USD, trading at 4,985 USD/ton. The delivery term for March 2025 increased by 185 USD, trading at 4,923 USD/ton. The average trading volume was low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange continued to increase, with the December 2024 delivery period up 6 cents, trading at 301.70 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the March 2025 delivery period increased 6.15 cents, trading at 299.30 cents/lb. Trading volume was high.
Domestic coffee prices on November 22 increased slightly by VND 200/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg
(Source: giacaphe.com) |
Explaining the unusual point of the domestic coffee market in November - coffee prices increased but export output decreased sharply, Vicofa experts said that the sharp decrease in coffee export output in the first half of November was not a big problem. Because the main reason was due to the high coffee prices, the market is currently unable to find a price balance between supply and demand.
Accordingly, buyers wait for prices to fall, sellers wait for prices to rise. The two sides have not found a common price to conduct the transaction, so many transactions have stalled. Many traders even "hold back" their goods, waiting for coffee prices to rise before releasing them to the market. International buyers still have stockpiles, so they are not in a hurry to close orders.
According to Vicofa experts' forecast, it is only the beginning of the season, so by the second half of November and December, when more coffee is harvested and prices are more stable, export output will increase.
The reduction in coffee harvest output does not have too much impact, Vietnam still ensures export output, does not cause shortages as many places predict, the supply chain will not have problems and will not be interrupted. Despite the decrease in output, Vietnamese coffee prices in the 2024-2025 crop year will continue to remain high, causing export turnover to continue to increase.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-23112024-gia-ca-phe-tang-vot-phien-cuoi-tuan-robusta-tien-sat-nguong-5000-usd-diem-khac-thuong-o-thi-truong-trong-nuoc-294798.html
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