Gold prices may fall
Given the developments in world gold prices, experts say that gold prices in Vietnam may continue to decrease, but not significantly.
Mr. Nguyen Quang Huy, CEO of the Faculty of Finance and Banking (Nguyen Trai University) said that the world gold price fluctuates, but whether the gold price in Vietnam will decrease to the threshold of 100 million VND/tael or not depends on many factors, not just being affected by the world price.
In fact, there have been times when the world gold price has dropped sharply, but the domestic price has dropped slightly or remained unchanged, or even increased. The fact that the domestic gold price is about 14 million VND/tael higher than the world price proves this contradiction.
"The consumption habits of Vietnamese people as well as Asian people are to hoard, accumulate, and save gold with a defensive mentality, so when the gold price fluctuates like it is now, although there is not high demand, it still triggers a large amount of money in the population to buy gold." Mr. Huy said.
According to Mr. Huy, to reduce the difference between domestic and world gold prices to 1-2%, it is necessary to increase supply to the market.
"The most important thing is to expand controlled import rights to increase gold supply. Only allowing gold imports can help connect domestic and world gold prices. Otherwise, domestic gold prices will continue to be high, leading to gold smuggling across the border." Mr. Huy analyzed.
Mr. Huy also said that the gap between domestic and world gold prices will gradually narrow if supply is improved and the market operates according to the principle of true competition.
“In terms of market structure, there will be more businesses that process and distribute gold bars with their own brands (under the close supervision of the State Bank), which will help disperse market power, creating transparency in price formation. At the same time, it is possible to form a domestic gold trading floor, where prices are publicly listed and traded electronically, helping the market operate more transparently and modernly,” Mr. Huy said.
Meanwhile, Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu also said that the shift from the role of monopoly supply to the role of regulating and supervising the market, ensuring macro stability, preventing speculation, financial risks and gold smuggling.
“When people will be less “dependent” on gold as the only storage channel, when the value of gold is linked to real supply and demand factors and is managed more transparently. Other investment channels such as bonds, stocks, real estate… have the opportunity to regain interest when gold is no longer the only “shelter””, Mr. Hieu said.
Gold prices fluctuate, should you buy or sell?
The world gold price on the morning of June 28, Vietnam time, decreased by 53 USD to 3,272 USD per ounce. Converted according to the USD exchange rate on the free market, the world gold price is about 104 million VND/tael (excluding taxes and fees).
The domestic gold price is listed by some businesses specifically as follows: DOJI and PNJ gold bar prices are listed at 117.7 million VND/tael for buying and 119.7 million VND/tael for selling, down 300,000 VND/tael for both buying and selling compared to the previous session's close.
SJC gold price at Phu Quy is traded by businesses at 117.2 - 119.7 million VND/tael (buy - sell), the gold price remains the same for buying and decreases 300,000 VND/tael for selling.
Thus, the price of SJC gold bars is about 14 million VND/tael higher than the international gold price.
Faced with the fluctuations in gold prices and the difference between domestic and international gold prices, expert Tran Duy Phuong said that if people bought gold in the past for the purpose of hoarding assets, they do not need to worry too much about selling at this time. Because over time, gold prices will increase.
For those who buy gold for investment, the current price range is ideal for selling gold for profit.
“To determine the time to sell gold, investors need to plan their expected profit level and should be satisfied with the planned profit level rather than regretting that the gold price will continue to increase." Mr. Phuong said.
For example, he said, we buy gold at 100 million VND/tael and set a profit target of 10 million VND/tael. So, when the gold price reaches 110 million VND or 118 million VND/tael as it is now, the profit target is guaranteed, or even exceeded, then investors should sell to take profit.
"Don't think that gold prices will increase and regret not selling, that's very risky in a volatile context," Mr. Phuong analyzed.
Experts also recommend that gold investors need to be careful and research the market thoroughly to ensure they buy gold when the price is at its lowest possible level and sell when the price is at its highest or reaches their interest rate expectations.
Sharing the same view, according to economic expert Nguyen Tri Hieu, investors with idle money should not focus all on gold but should allocate it to many different channels such as stocks, real estate, bank deposits, etc.
On the contrary, for those who have gold reserves and want to sell it to make a profit, they can calculate whether the current profit level is suitable for their set goals or not.
“If you invest in gold to make a profit, you need to set a target profit percentage each year. That way, you can calculate the price of gold you want to sell at, and when you reach the profit target, you can sell to take profit.” Mr. Hieu advised.
Source: https://baolangson.vn/gia-vang-ha-nhiet-nha-dau-tu-nen-mua-hay-ban-5051526.html
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