Hanoi Moi Newspaper reporter discussed with Director of the General Statistics Office ( Ministry of Finance ) Nguyen Thi Huong about this content as well as economic prospects in 2025.
Positive results and prospects
- How do you evaluate GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025?
- The socio -economic situation in the first quarter of 2025 of our country maintained a positive trend, the macro economy was stable, inflation was under control, major balances were ensured, industries and fields achieved many important results, creating momentum for growth in the following quarters.
Gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter increased by 6.93% over the same period last year, lower than the annual target of 8% but the highest increase in the first quarter compared to the same period since 2020. The industry and construction sector grew quite well in the first quarter (7.42%), the added value of industry increased by 7.32%, of which the processing and manufacturing industry increased by 9.28%. Attracting FDI capital achieved positive results, the realized investment capital of this sector increased by 9.3% over the same period. Exports continued to grow strongly, the export value of goods increased by 10%, services increased by 18%.
In the first quarter, Vietnam continued to have a trade surplus of more than 3 billion USD. These results are very remarkable.
- In your opinion, what are the drivers and factors affecting growth in the coming quarters?
- In the face of difficulties and challenges from the world situation, right from the first month of the year, the Government and the Prime Minister have focused on implementing solutions for socio-economic development, promoting economic growth, maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, and ensuring major balances. It is forecasted that the following quarters will have better growth prospects.
The Government and the Prime Minister have focused on implementing solutions for socio-economic development, promoting growth, maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, and ensuring major balances.
The trend of shifting global supply chains is creating great opportunities for Vietnam to attract foreign investment in the industrial sector, especially in the processing, manufacturing and high-tech industries. Meanwhile, the digital economy, digital transformation and innovation are new growth drivers, the foundation for increasing productivity and efficiency of the economy.
Take advantage of free trade agreements such as EVFTA, CPTPP, RCEP to expand export markets for Vietnam's key and advantageous products... reduce dependence on the United States; participate deeply and enhance position in the world supply chain.
Public investment is being strongly implemented. The government is determined to implement major programs and projects such as the North-South high-speed railway, nuclear power, and attract “eagles” in the technology sector.
Efforts to promote growth
- So how should we identify room for growth, madam?
- It is necessary to identify that the first quarter growth rate of 6.93% is lower than the growth target of 7.7% set out in Resolution 01/NQ-CP dated January 8, 2025 of the Government on the main tasks and solutions to implement the socio-economic development plan and the state budget estimate for 2025 (corresponding to the GDP scenario of 8%) creating pressure on the following quarters, while the world context still has many challenges. The implementation of the 2025 growth target is even more difficult; especially when a large amount of work must be carried out simultaneously, ensuring the progress of the arrangement of administrative units at all levels.
However, the room for economic growth in the coming quarters is quite clear. Firstly, public investment and foreign investment continue to be a strong arm for economic growth. Policies and solutions to promote disbursement of public investment capital as well as strongly attract foreign investment capital are being vigorously implemented by the Government, ministries, branches and localities, which will be an important bridge and stepping stone to promote production, business and export.
Second, digital transformation and technological innovation are in a booming phase, opening up opportunities for businesses to access and apply AI technology in production activities, to reduce costs, improve labor productivity, and increase competitiveness.
Third, the credit growth target of 16% in 2025 is expected to be a big boost for the real estate market. Along with legal policies, it opens up opportunities for the real estate market to overcome difficulties, thereby stimulating the development of the construction industry.
Fourth, consumption is supported by policies to reduce value-added tax and trade policies to stimulate domestic consumption.
Fifth, strengthening visa exemption policies for many countries and tourism promotion strategies will help Vietnam develop and attract visitors in the upcoming tourist season.
- What is the growth scenario, according to you?
- As known, with the GDP growth target of 8.0% or more in 2025, in order to create a solid foundation to achieve double-digit growth in the 2026-2030 period, based on the estimated results of the first quarter of 2025, forecasts for the second quarter and the whole year, the General Statistics Office has updated the GDP growth scenario for the quarters of 2025 to achieve the growth target of 8% as follows: The first quarter increased by 6.93%, the second quarter increased by 8.2%, the third quarter and the fourth quarter were 8.3% and 8.4% respectively; the overall growth in the last 9 months of the year must increase by over 8.3%.
It is necessary to implement a number of solutions to promote growth. That is, to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a flexible monetary policy to ensure macroeconomic stability. To synchronously implement solutions to overcome difficulties and develop the economy as stated in the directives and telegrams of the Government and the Prime Minister.
Proactively develop sustainable agriculture; encourage the application of high technology in production to improve productivity and quality.
Increase selective investment attraction in the processing and manufacturing industry, support enterprises in technological innovation. Develop supporting industries to reduce dependence on imported raw materials. Promote technological innovation, support enterprises in digital transformation, automate production lines, apply AI and Big Data to improve productivity and supply chain management.
Focus on removing obstacles for real estate projects. Speed up the progress of key projects, especially large-scale infrastructure projects with spillover effects such as belt roads, highways, and metro lines. Speed up and control the progress of public investment disbursement...
- What about the issue of responding to US reciprocal taxes, madam?
- To minimize the negative impacts of the reciprocal tax policy, Vietnam needs to focus on implementing the following solutions: Strengthen bilateral dialogue with the United States to clarify the bilateral trade benefits between the two countries, affirming that Vietnam is a fair and trustworthy trade partner. Continue to be proactive, positive and use many channels and many different measures to balance the trade balance between the two countries. In addition, the authorities need to provide early information to businesses about reciprocal taxes, helping businesses prepare data and be ready to respond to protect their interests in the US market, thereby finding solutions to minimize the impact of tariffs on manufacturers and exporters.
Thank you very much!
Source: https://hanoimoi.vn/kinh-te-quy-i-nhieu-ket-qua-tich-cuc-698749.html
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