World Gold Council analyzes the possibility of narrowing the gap between Vietnamese and international gold prices

In the context of strong fluctuations in gold prices, the price difference between Vietnam and the world is attracting special attention from investors.

Mr. Shaokai Fan - Photo: WGC

Updated on August 8, the price of SJC gold bars is currently 16 million VND/tael higher than the world price , while gold rings are about 12 million VND/tael higher.

Why is the domestic gold price "high"?

Speaking to Tuoi Tre Online , Mr. Shaokai Fan, director of the Asia- Pacific region (excluding China) and director of the Global Central Bank Sector at the World Gold Council (WGC) - confirmed that the current gap is high. He said that narrowing this gap is important. However, this depends largely on the nature and extent of reform and policy changes in Vietnam in the coming time.

"Currently, only general guidelines have been given. Therefore, it is difficult to assess the real impact on reducing price differences," said Mr. Shaokai Fan.

According to Mr. Shaokai Fan, the expectation of policy changes should have caused investors to "dump" their stocks to anticipate the downward trend in prices, but in reality, there has not been a large-scale sale of gold in the domestic market. This shows that the market sentiment is still in a wait-and-see mode, not yet affected by unclear policy information.

He pointed out two main reasons for the high domestic gold price: Shortage of gold supply; exchange rate fluctuations, especially in the second quarter of 2025, when the VND depreciated sharply against the USD, caused the domestic gold price to skyrocket.

"The demand for gold among the people is currently very high. The psychology of hoarding and investing is still strong. However, the high price of gold has become a barrier that makes it difficult for people to access," Mr. Fan added.

Responding to the question of what is a “reasonable” price difference between the domestic and international markets, the WGC expert affirmed that there is no fixed figure that is considered suitable for all countries. Each market has a big difference in operating mechanism, level of trade freedom, supply and demand management and exchange rate fluctuations.

The risk of gold smuggling and the problem of market control

WGC experts said that if the high difference is not properly controlled, it can create two dangerous gold smuggling trends. When domestic prices are lower than world prices, gold tends to be smuggled out. Conversely, if domestic prices are too much higher than world prices, it will promote the situation of gold smuggling into Vietnam.

According to Mr. Fan, one effective solution is to loosen regulations on gold imports. He said the State Bank of Vietnam is currently considering amending Decree 24 on the management of gold trading activities.

"As gold supply improves, the market will regulate better and the price gap will naturally narrow," Mr. Fan said.

Faced with forecasts that the world gold price could fall sharply to the threshold of 3,000 USD/ounce by the end of this year due to the tariff factor and the "decided" interest rate policy, Mr. Shaokai Fan expressed caution.

According to him, the world market is not yet completely stable. Regarding monetary policy, Mr. Fan said that central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed), still have room to cut interest rates if necessary.

While some investors are concerned that stable interest rates will be detrimental to gold prices, the expert stressed: "If interest rates continue to fall, gold will still be a beneficiary asset. We have not seen any negative signals strong enough to put pressure on global gold prices in the short term."

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BINH KHANH

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/hoi-dong-vang-the-gioi-phan-tich-kha-nang-thu-hep-chenh-lech-gia-vang-viet-nam-va-quoc-te-20250808112133636.htm